July 10, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

There is one position that expires today and that is the short $7.50 call on CLVS. CLVS settled at $6.70 yesterday, so the options will most likely expire worthless. Assuming that is the situation, I will look to sell another round
next week.

The market gave back some of the gains from Wednesday.

The day closed out 17.89 points lower. The S & P 500 closed at 3,152.05.

This put the market back under the minor 3,164 level.

The low for the day was 3,115.70 or about 10 points under the major 3,125 level.

The range for the day was 64.08 points. This actually exceeded the daily average true range of 58.55 points. So, the market expanded.

But, after bottoming at 3,115.70, the S & P managed to rally back 36.35 points to close only 17.89 points lower.

The daily bar closed at 57% of the range for the day, which is slightly bullish.

The support area from yesterday's daily bar is around 3,148. The support area above this level is around 3,164, which also happens to be the minor level we have been monitoring.

This once again should be a key level intra day.

The weekly price bar through yesterday is showing a major contraction.

The range for the week is only 68.45 points. This is 41% of the weekly average true range, which is 165.94.

The midpoint is 3,150 and yesterday's close is 2 points above it. But, yesterday's close is about 3 points below the open for the week, which is 3,155.29.

These are key levels for today.

Also, watch the high of 3,184.15 and the low of 3,115.70.

Pr open, the S & P is trading about 18 points lower. This projects to an open around 3,134.

Assuming the market follows through to the downside after the open, watch for support around the 3,125 area. I suspect it will be tested today.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX:

Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.16
Major level: 34.38
Minor level: 33.60
Minor level: 32.03
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 30.47 **
Minor level: 28.91
Major level: 28.13
Minor level: 27.35
Minor level: 25.78
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 24.22

The VIX closed at 29.08. It closed 1.18 lower on the day.

Watch for a break under the minor 28.91 level. Resistance should be at 30.47.

Technical resistance is at 30. The 60 minute chart is still bullish, but is close to crossing into a downtrend. If the 60 minute does cross into a downtrend, it would suggest the market will continue higher.

S & P 500:

Major level: 3,281.20
Minor level: 3,242.15
Minor level: 3,164.00 **
Major level: 3,125.00 < Hit
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.75
Minor level: 2,851.65
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30

The S & P closed at 3,152.05. On the downside, the major 3,125 level should be support.

On the upside, watch the 3,164 level. The S & P would have to reclaim it to head higher.

3,145 is also a minor level to watch today.

Also, keep an eye on the weekly levels I mentioned above.

QQQ:

Major level: 275.00
Minor level: 273.44
Minor level: 270.31
Major level: 262.50 < Hit
Minor level: 260.93
Minor level: 257.80
Major level: 256.25
Minor level: 254.69
Minor level: 251.56
Major level: 250.00
Minor level: 248.54
Minor level: 245.31
Major level: 243.75

The QQQ closed at 262.18. The QQQ already hi the major 262.50 objective. The high for the day was 262.87.

The 270.31 level should be support.

The QQQ is above the upper band on the weekly chart, which is 253.52. It is also above the upper band on the daily chart, which is 258.73.

These levels should be support.

Technical suport is around 260.

IWM:

Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.70
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.19
Minor level: 139.06
Major level: 137.50 < Hit
Minor level: 135.94
Minor level: 132.81
Major level: 131.25

The IWM closed at 139.07. At this point, we know there is resistance at the midband, which is 146.24.

The IWM hit the 137.50 level. Watch this level.

Technical resistance is now around 141. Watch the 138 area for possible technical support.

TLT:

Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.97
Minor level: 166.41 **
Major level: 165.63 <
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47

The TLT closed at 167.17. This was the first close above 166.41. A close today above this level and the TLT should test 168.75.

165.63 should now be support.

Technical support is around 163.

GLD:

Major level: 171.89
Minor level: 171.11
Minor level: 169.54 **
Major level: 168.75 < HIT
Minor level: 167.98
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16

The GLD closed at 169.63. The objective for the GLD should be up to 171.89.

The minor 167.98 level should be support.

Technical support should still be at 169.

XLE:

Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75
Minor level: 42.97
Minor level: 41.41
Major level: 40.63
Minor level: 39.83
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.15
Major level: 34.37 <
Minor level: 33.59
Minor level: 32.03
Major level: 31.25

The XLE closed at 34.44 The next level on the downside is 33.59. Two closes under this level and the XLE should drop to 31.25.

To move higher, the XLE will need two closes above 35.15.

Short term trends are bearish.

The 34 area should be technical support.

AAPL:

Major level: 387.50 < Hit
Minor level: 384.38 **
Minor level: 378.13
Major level: 375.00
Minor level: 371.88
Minor level: 365.63
Major level: 362.50
Minor level: 359.38
Minor level: 353.13
Major level: 350.00
Minor level: 346.88
Minor level: 340.63
Major level: 337.50

Apple closed at 382.73. Apple did hit the 387.50 objective yesterday. The high for the day was 393.91.

But, Apple closed under the minor 384.38 level. This suggests that if Apple closes under this level today, it should drop to 375.

Also, yesterday's high hit the upper band on the daily chart, which is 393.64.

Not time to chase Apple.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: AMZN, TSLA, SHOP, REGN, NFLX, ADBE, NOW, NVDA, ASML, ILMN, AAPL, LRCX, AMGN, WIX, VEEV, WST

Bearish Stocks: BYND, PNC, MMS, COF, CLUE, RAMP, AMBA, XOM, ADS, FTDR, FANG, DIN, AJRD, FUN, HFC