While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $2.37
Short June 20th - $15.50 call @ $.27
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $.80
NVDA Long July 19th - $157.50 Call @ $3.40
NVDA Short July 19th - $162.50 Call @ $1.50
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Yesterday, I suggested you book the overnight profit on the NVDA short term call position. You should have closed out the position booking an overnight return of 50%.
In my haste to get the alert out, I did have have a typo. It should have read " Sell to Close", instead of "Buy to Open". Presumably, this was not an issue, as I am sure you know how to close out a long position.
I can recall writing about the S & P 500 taking out 3,000 and now it has happened. Yesterday's high went to 3,002.98, taking out the major 3,000 level by 2.98 points.
I had written about the S & P 500 making a run to the upper bollinger band on its daily chart and it is appearing more and more likely that it will happen. I would not bet against it.
The upper band is 3,103.81. What is interesting about this price is that it is within 20 points of our next major resistance level, which is 3,125.
But with the major 3,125 level, we know what price action we need to confirm a move up to that level.
And that is two closes above the minor 3,007.85 level.
It seemed like writing about confirming a move up to 3,125 was out of the question not too long ago. But, we are almost there. In fact, yesterday's close is now within 15 points of having its first close above it.
15 points is not even the daily average true range, which is now 18.36.
So, it is possible we could have our first close above the next minor upside level today.
And as you know, I do not argue against my resistance levels. How can you when they have confirmed the upside levels all during this run?
Is there anything that can derail this bull market?
At this point, I would say the answer is no. But, I would suspect that if the white house cannot work out a deal with China, it may be the event that seriously harms this bull market.
But, President Trump is very mindful of the rising market and quite frankly, I cannot see him doing anything that could do serious damage.
In the short term, the next upside level of 3,007.85 should be closely watched.
This is because it is the next minor level after a major level and it can offer resistance the first time it is approached.
The major level the S & P 500 just took out is 2,968.80. And this should offer support if there is a pullback.
I am not saying there will be a pullback, only that we need to be mindful of the possibilities.
One technical pattern I want to point out is this. Actually two. The first is that the S & P 500 had four consecutive days where the daily range did not exceed the average true range.
This tells us that an expansion is coming.
The second point I would like to make is regarding the gap opens.
The S & P 500 had three consecutive days where it opened below the prior day close. The fourth day, which was yesterday, the S & P 500 gapped to the upside.
A gap against an uptrend is usually a buy. And recently we had three.
The support area from yesterday's daily bar is in the 2,991 to 2,993 area.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 6 points higher.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 11.72
The VIX closed at 13.03 yesterday. The high for the day was 14.69, before the VIX sold off 1.06 or 7.52%.
The low for the day ended up at 12.98 or 48 cents above the 12.50 objective we have been calling for.
12.50 is still the objective and 14.85 was still resistance and should be.
14.06 should now be minor resistance as well.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00 <
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85 ***
Major level: 2,968.80 << HIT
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
At this point, the S & P 500 will need two closes above 3,007.85 to move up to 3,125.
Support is at the major 2,968.80 level. And minor support is at 2,978.50.
If the S & P 500 can clear 3,002.90, it should become support.
Trend still remain firmly bullish.
QQQ:
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06 **
Major level: 187.50 < Hit
Minor level: 185.94 **
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
The QQQ closed at 192.56. The QQQ is within 70 cents of the 193.75 target.
191.41 should offer support. Technical support is at 190. Short term charts remain firmly bullish.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 155.67. The IWM will still need two closes above 157.81 to confirm a move up to 162.50. But, the IWM must clear 156.25 first.
Support should be at 153.13.
Short term trends remain bullish. So, buying against support is the best strategy.
Technical support is at 155.50.
TLT:
Major level: 134.38
Minor level: 133.60
Minor level: 132.03 **
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
The TLT closed out at 131.83. If the TLT breaks under 131.25, look for it to move lower.
132.42 is a minor resistance level now.
To move higher, the TLT will need to clear 132.81.
GLD:
Major level: 134.48
Minor level: 133.60 **
Minor level: 132.03
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
The GLD closed at 133.83. Watch the upper band, which is now 133.06. A retest is likely.
If the GLD closes above 132.03, it should test 134.48.
132.81 should offer short term support now.
XLE:
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28 **
Major level: 62.50 <
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
The XLE closed at 64.04. If the XLE closes above 63.28 today, it should move up to 65.63.
63.28 should be support. And minor support is at 63.67.
64.84 is a minor resistance level. Technical support level is at the 63.25 level.
Short term charts remain bullish.
AAPL:
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 209.38
Minor level: 203.13 **
Major level: 200.00 <
Minor level: 196.88
Minor level: 190.63
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13
Major level: 175.00
Apple closed at 203.23. A close today above 203.13 and Apple should move up to 212.50.
206.25 could offer some resistance, so if Apple clears this level, expect it to move higher.
200 should be support. And technical support is at 202.
Short term charts remain bullish.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: NFLX, LMT, ADBE, FLT, MA, COST, APD, MLM, VRSN, MCD, HD, FB, OLED, HON, V, BABA, DIS, MSFT, WYNN
Bearish Stocks: RTN, USNA, SPR, KEX, NUS, DIS, TUP
Be sure to check earnings release dates.