While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
DYN Long at $12.55
Premium Collected $0.48
APA Long Oct $47.50 Call at $3.45
APA Short Oct $52.50 Call at $1.10
SBH Long at $19.20
SBH Short July $20 Call at $0.30
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I mentioned yesterday that a retest of the lower band on the 30 minute chart for the S & P 500 would not be out of the question. And that level was 2,410.
The S & P 500 dropped to a low of 2,412.79 before reversing and heading up to close at 2,425.53.
So, it came within 3 points of the lower band.
And once again, the S & P 500 close back above the 2,421.88 level. We know, the S & P 500 would need two closes under this level to head lower. And at this point, it has held.
Two keys levels for today will be yesterday's close, which was 2,425.53 and the high, which was 2,429.30.
I would expect those levels to act as support if they get violated.
The 2,420 to 2,423 area from last week's weekly price bar, should continue to offer some support for the market.
As for the VIX, it ran up to a high of 12.14, just under the major 12.50 resistance level, before dropping the balance of the day, to close at 10.89.
We had anticipated the VIX selling off against higher resistance levels, or at least you should have.
Pre market, the markets are biased to a bullish open. Watch the levels I mentioned above.
At 2:00 today, we will hear from the Fed.
Continue to follow the resistance levels.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.84
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 11.72 <
Minor level: 10.15
Major level: 9.38
The downside objective still remains for a retest of 9.38. With yesterday's close, it is within one poinr of it.
11.33 should be minor resistance. 10.55 is a minor support level.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,484.38
Minor level: 2,453.12
Major level: 2,437.50 **
Minor level: 2,421.88 <
Minor level: 2,390.62
Major level: 2,375.00
Minor level: 2,359.38
Minor level: 2,328.12
Major level: 2,312.50
The 2,421.88 level should offer support today. If the S & P 500 breaks under that level, I would expect 2,418 should offer strong support.
At this point, the S & P 500 has not confirmed a move either way. Having said that, the VIX has confirmed a move down, so the bias remains to the upside.
QQQ:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.18
Minor level: 139.06 ***
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 135.94 ***
Minor level: 132.81
Major level: 131.25
The QQQ closed at 139.05, just one cent under the upside level of 139.06. I will consider this the first close above it, even though technically is close a penny under it.
A close today above 139.06 and the QQQ should test 143.75.
138.28 should continue to offer support.
139.84 could offer resistance.
IWM:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41 ***
Major level: 140.63 <
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
The IWM is within 50 cents of the 140.63 objective.
141.02 should be minor resistance. 139.45 should be minor support.
TLT:
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66 <
Major level: 121.88
The TLT closed for the second day over 122.66. This now implies a move to test the 125 level, which should be resistance.
123.63 is minor resistance and 122.95 should be support.
GLD:
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 120.32
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.97
Minor level: 116.41
Major level: 115.63 <<
Minor level: 114.85
Minor level: 113.28
The GLD closed one cent under the 115.63 level. Like the S & P 500, the GLD has not confirmed in either direction.
To move lower, the GLD will need two closes under 114.85. Daily trend remains bearish.
Minor support is at 114.84 and minor resistance is at 116.41.
XLE:
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63 <<
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28 **
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
The XLE will have to clear 64.85 to move higher. The objective should be to 65.63.
Resistance should be at 65.23. And minor support is at 64.06.
FXY:
Minor level: 87.89
Major level: 87.50
Minor level: 87.11
Minor level: 86.33
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.55
Minor level: 84.77 **
Major level: 84.38 <
Minor level: 83.60
Minor level: 83.20
Major level: 82.81
The FXY reversed and closed slightly to the upside, at 84.49. This of course, was after it hit our objective, which was 84.38. (This is why I suggested the trailing stop on the short position.)
So what happens next?
The FXY will need two closes above 84.77 to move up to the 85.94 level. And I would expect strong resistance at the 85.94 level and the 87.50 level.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 162.50, 156.25, 150, 143.75, and 137.50
143.75 should now offer support. 146.09 should be minor resistance and 144.53 is minor support.
Short term momentum remains bearish.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: PCLN, GS, FDX, BA, STZ, LLL, CMI, CP, MCD, AET, VRTX, MCO, KSU, TSO, VRSN, MTOR
Bearish Stocks: AZO, ORLY, SJM, CASY, CVX, AAP, JACK, DG, SLB, QCOM, TSCO
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
