While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
DYN Long at $12.55
Premium Collected $0.48
APA Long Oct $47.50 Call at $3.45
APA Short Oct $52.50 Call at $1.10
SBH Long at $19.20
SBH Short July $20 Call at $0.30
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After the gap up on Wednesday and the push up, the S & P 500 is back to a narrow range day.
Yesterday closed at 2,447.84, up 4.58 points to the upside. The range for the day was only 7.63 points.
The high for the day was 2,449.32. This inches the S & P 500 up to the next confirming level, which is 2,453.12.
The question is do we clear this level on this drive?
The first time the S & P 500 hit this level, it began a pullback. That was on June 19th, when it topped at 2,453.82. The S & P 500 pulled back a modest 46 points after it hit that level for the first time.
I don't know if it will clear this level on this drive, but we know the implications of this price, as opposed to most market participants who have no idea of the implication of the 2,453.12 price level.
Clearing this price will be contingent upon whether the 30 minute chart can move into an uptrend. At this point, it is very close to crossing over into a bullish trend. If it can cross into a bull trend, I do think it will indicate that this level will be breached, as the market will show more strength.
Often times, the market will make three runs to try and clear the next level, so a bit of back of forth price action would not be unusual.
This price action often lulls traders into taking a short, only to see the market turn and rip through the high and head strongly higher.
As a reader of this daily update, you are certainly too wise to attempt that.
But, as I have been saying, I do believe that the ultimate objective is 2,500.
And the market is now within reach of that level. We are only 50 points away. I am sure when I mentioned that price a while ago, you most likely did not believe it, or give it much thought.
And here we are, trying to close above the confirming line that would validate a move up to 2,500.
As for a prediction, I do believe it is quite possible that a meaningful pullback can happen around the 2,500 level. It seems to be setting up this way, based on the VIX dropping back to all times lows. A reversal against the 9.38 level on the VIX would be the indicator to watch to see if this is possible.
Continue to follow the resistance levels.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.84
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 11.72 <
Minor level: 10.15
Major level: 9.38
The VIX closed at 9.92, breaching the single digits again. 10.16 should be minor resistance. I don't see the VIX dropping under 7.81.
10.94 should also be resistance.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,484.38
Minor level: 2,453.12 <
Major level: 2,437.50 **
Minor level: 2,421.88
Minor level: 2,390.62
Major level: 2,375.00
Minor level: 2,359.38
Minor level: 2,328.12
Major level: 2,312.50
The S & P 500 closed just above the minor 2,445.30 level, so now expect it to offer support.
Watch the 2,453.12 level today.
QQQ:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.18
Minor level: 139.06 ***
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 135.94 ***
Minor level: 132.81
Major level: 131.25
The 143.75 level is the objective. Minor support is at 139.84.
142.19 is minor resistance. If this level is cleared, look for 143.75 to be hit.
IWM:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41 ***
Major level: 140.63 <
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
The IWM closed above 141.41 yesterday. This now implies that if the IWM can close above that level today, it should move up to 143.75.
141.02 should now be minor support.
TLT:
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66 <
Major level: 121.88
The TLT reversed sharply yesterday, closing at 123.18, down .78 on the day. It fell short of the 125 objective by about a point.
At this point, watch the minor 123.05 level. If the TLT closes under that level for two days, it should drop to 121.88.
123.44 is minor resistance.
GLD:
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 120.32
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.97
Minor level: 116.41
Major level: 115.63 <<
Minor level: 114.85
Minor level: 113.28
The GLD closed at 115.83, just above the major 115.63 level. 115.63 should be minor support at this point, so if it does drop under it, expect it to move lower.
118.75 should be major resistance.
XLE:
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63 <<
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28 **
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
The XLE had its first close above 64.85 yesterday. 65.63 should still be the objective.
Minor support is at 64.45 and 65.65. Minor resistance is at 65.43.
FXY:
Minor level: 87.89
Major level: 87.50
Minor level: 87.11
Minor level: 86.33
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.55
Minor level: 84.77 **
Major level: 84.38 <
Minor level: 83.60
Minor level: 83.20
Major level: 82.81
The FXY closed down 3 cents, at 84.96. Watch to see if it drops under 84.77.
85.16 is minor resistance. And 84.38 should be minor support.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 153.13, 150, 146.88 143.75, and 140.63.
Look for a move up to 150. Buy against support.
Short term momentum is shifting to the upside.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: PCLN, GS, FDX, BA, STZ, LLL, CMI, CP, MCD, AET, VRTX, MCO, KSU, TSO, VRSN, MTOR
Bearish Stocks: AZO, ORLY, SJM, CASY, CVX, AAP, JACK, DG, SLB, QCOM, TSCO
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
