While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
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DUST Long $4.50
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SNAP Long at $14.54
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Short July 19th - $15.50 call @ $0.48
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FEYE Long at $17.18
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Yesterday, I suggested you close out the QCOM position. The return was 52% for 4 days.
The S & P 500 continues to trade in a small range. The range for the day was 9.03 points. It was only 41% of the daily average true range.
This was the narrowest day of trading since Monday June 17th when the range for the day was only 9.97 points.
It's interesting that both days fell on a Monday. By the way, after the narrow range on the 17th, the S & P proceeded to move about 60 points higher in three days.
Is that possible now?
Yes, of course, it could happen. But, the big difference was that on the 17th, the VIX was at 15.35. The VIX today is 12.72, so the chances are higher that we will see a reversal in the VIX.
However, with a close at 3,014.30, the S & P 500 had its second consecutive close above 3,007.85.
This does suggest that the market will continue higher.
For the day, the S & P 500 closed at 3,014.30. It was up 0.53 points on the day.
The support level from yesterday's daily bar is in the 3,013 to 3,016 area.
Yesterday close of 3,014 was right between the resistance level.
So, look for a break out above the area, or a break below the area.
The upper end of the weekly support level which is 2,997 should also offer support.
We begin to get earnings this week. Wednesday before the open, we hear form BAC and PNC.
After the close, we get earnings from IBM and NFLX along with URI.
Thursday after the close, we will get earnings from MSFT.
Pre open, the S & P is trading relatively flat.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 11.72
The VIX closed at 12.72 yesterday. This was a second divergence with the VIX and the S & P is a week. They both closed to the upside.
13.28 should still be resistance and yesterday's high came to 13.02. So, I would not expect the VIX to head higher until it clears 13.28.
And yesterday's low came to 12.49, just one cent under the major 12.50 level. Watch today to see if it breaks under this level. If it does, I expect the market to make a run up to the next level.
12.89 should be minor resistance. Minor support is at 12.11.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00 <
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85 ***
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
With a close above 3,007.85 yesterday, the active objective for the S & P is 3,125.
The minor 3,002.90 level should now be support.
On the upside, there is minor resistance at 3,027.30. And there is resistance a 3,051.80.
2,998 should offer strong support.
QQQ:
Major level: 196.88
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53 **
Major level: 193.75 < Hit
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
The QQQ closed at 194.15. This was the first close above the major 193.75 level.
The next minor level 194.53 on the upside is 194.53. Two closes above this level and the objective becomes 196.88.
193.75 should now offer support.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69 **
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 155.29. Yesterday's high came to 34 cents above the major 156.25 level.
To head lower, the IWM will need two closes under 154.69.
There is a minor level at 155.47 and if the IWM closes under it, it could drop to 153.13. It will have to recoup 155.47 to head higher.
153,13 should offer strong support. But, the mid band is now 154.23 and it should offer support as well.
Short term trends remain bullish. So, buying against support is the best strategy.
Technical support is at 154.40.
TLT:
Major level: 134.38
Minor level: 133.60
Minor level: 132.03
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47 **
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
The TLT closed at 130.97. By reclaiming 130.47, the TLT should continue to bounce.
If the TLT can regain 131.25, it should head higher. If it can't, look for a drop.
Technical resistance is at 132.
GLD:
Major level: 134.48
Minor level: 133.60 **
Minor level: 132.03
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
The GLD closed at 133.53. Watch the upper band which is now 133.75. The GLD is back to the upper band. The GLD was flat for the day.
132.81 is a minor level and now that the GLD is above it, it should offer support.
131.25 should offer strong support.
132.50 is technical support.
XLE:
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28 **
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
The XLE closed at 63.86. The upside is still to 65.63.
63.28 should be support. And minor support is at 63.67.
64.84 is a minor resistance level. So, if it can clear 64.84, it should move up to 65.63.
63 is technical support.
Short term charts remain bullish.
AAPL:
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 209.38
Minor level: 203.13 **
Major level: 200.00 <
Minor level: 196.88
Minor level: 190.63
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13
Major level: 175.00
Apple closed at 205.21. The objective for Apple should now be to the 212.50 level.
206.25 could offer some resistance, so if Apple clears this level, expect it to move higher.
203.13 should offer strong support. And 202.50 is technical support.
Short term charts remain bullish.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: NFLX, LMT, ADBE, FLT, MA, COST, APD, MLM, VRSN, MCD, HD, FB, OLED, HON, V, BABA, DIS, MSFT, WYNN
Bearish Stocks: RTN, USNA, SPR, KEX, NUS, DIS, TUP
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
