The slow grind up to 2,187.50 continues, with the S & P 500 closing at 2,173.02.? It closed to the upside 9.25 points.
It is now within 14 points of the objective.
The VIX continues to drop and closed at 11.77.? It did hold above the the 11.72 line, which is the confirming level down to 9.38.
No doubt the break under 12.50 brings the VIX down to historic levels.
In fact, the all time low on the VIX was 9.39 back in December of 2006.
You may recall that about a year later the market topped out with the mortgage meltdown.
By the way, after the VIX bottomed at 9.38 in December of 2006, it ran to a high of 89.53 in October of 2008.
The question we have to ask is this ... Can this happen again?
It could, but I don't think so.? I say this because it does not seem that we have a whole sector totally overbought like we did with the real estate market back in 2007.
Or the Internet bubble back in 2,000.
But, we do have to respect the fact that the VIX is at all time lows.
Couple that with the fact that the 2,187.50 is a level where if the S & P 500 fails, the sell off could be rather rapid.? At least that is what I would expect.
If the S & P 500 can clear 2,187.50, then it paves the way for a move up to 2,250.
The key will be if earnings come in better than expected.
The market appears set up to open slightly lower this morning.? Bias remains to the upside.
Expect more moves of this magnitude this quarter.
?
Here are the key levels for the markets.
VIX:
Minor level - 17.96
Major level - 15.63
Minor level - 14.85
Minor level - 13.28 *
Major level - 12.50 *
Minor level - 11.72 *
Minor level - 10.15
Major level - 9.38
The VIX will need two closes under 11.72 to move to 9.38.
10.94 should be a level that will offer support.
Also, I would not expect the VIX break under the 9.38 level.? If the S & P 500 can hit it's objective and the VIX reverses, look for profit taking to ensue.
12.50 should be resistance now.
S & P 500 Cash Index:?
Major level - 2,187.50 *
Minor level - 2,171.88 *
Minor level - 2,140.62 *
Major level - 2,125.00
Minor level - 2,109.38
Minor level - 2,078.12
Major level - 2,062.50
Minor level - 2,046.88
Minor level - 2,015.62
Major level - 2,000.00
2,156.30 should be a support level for the S & P.
With a close above the 2,171.88 level yesterday, expect lower levels to act as support.
2,168 should be minor support and 2,175.80 is minor resistance.
Nasd 100 (QQQ):?
Major level - 115.63
Minor level - 113.28 *
Major level - 112.50 *
Minor level - 111.72 *
Minor level - 110.16
Major level - 109.38
Minor level - 108.60
Minor level - 107.03
Major level - 106.25
The QQQ finally punched up through the 112.50 level, closing at 113.44 yesterday.
A close today above 113.28 and the objective should be up to 115.63.
Minor support is at 113.09.? 113.67 should offer minor resistance.
TLT:?
Major level - 143.75 **
Minor level - 142.96
Minor level - 141.41
Major level - 140.63
Minor level - 139.85
Minor level - 138.28 *
Major level - 137.50 *
I mentioned the 138.28 level yesterday and the TLT closed exactly on that level.
Watch where the TLT opens today and the bias will be in the direction of the open.
If the TLT can open above 138.28, expect it to act as support.
GLD:
Major level - 131.25 **
Minor level - 130.46 *
Minor level - 128.91
Major level - 128.13
Minor level - 127.35
Minor level - 125.78
Major level - 125.00 *
Minor level - 124.22
The GLD is just above the 125 level that should be the objective.? To move lower, the GLD will need to close under 124.22.
125 should be major support.
Bullish % interest for the gold miner sector remains at 96.43%.?
XLE:
Major level - 71.88
Minor level - 71.10
Minor level - 69.53 *
Major level - 68.75 *
Minor level - 67.96
Minor level - 66.41
Major level - 65.63
Minor level - 64.85
Minor level - 63.28
Major level - 62.50
The 68.75 level continues to offer strong support, closing yesterday at 68.79.
To move higher, it needs two closes above 69.53.
68.55 should be support.
Apple:
Major levels for Apple are 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
Apple continues to trade right at the 100 level. A short should be considered if there is a daily bearish bar.
You are better off waiting for a bearish signal, because the 60 minute chart has moved into an uptrend.? Short term momentum is coming into Apple.
Watch list:
Bullish Stocks: LMT
, ULTA, BCR, NOC, STZ, COST, LLL, RTN, CLX, CASY, VMC, DLR, PEP, CME, DG, ALGN
?
Bearish Stocks:? HUM, FLT, BWLD, JAZZ, WBC, PSX, TSO, MAN, XLO, HIG, COP, AMTD, BKU
?
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
