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As a reminder, the markets close today at 1:00 EST. And of course, they are closed tomorrow for Independence Day.
Because of the Holiday, I will not be doing a webinar today. The next one will be in two weeks.
Have a Happy July 4th!
The S & P 500 ended up closing 8.68 points to the upside. It closed out at 2,973.01.
The next minor level is 3,007.85 and the S & P 500 is about 35 points away from that level.
You may have noticed that the levels have increased in size. This is a function of the ranges that the market is experiencing.
But, yesterday was the first close above the major 2,968.80 level.
Quite frankly, it is remarkable to think that the S & P 500 has now closed above 2,968, especially when you consider that the bottom on December 24th was at 2,346.58.
This run has now moved 631 points.
And the move has followed the band pattern. And the resistance levels have helped to confirm the continuatation of the upmove.
I remember a few occasions when I mentioned upside objective that seemed so far away that all got hit.
The first time was when the S & P 500 was under the lower band on the daily chart back in December and I said the objective should be to the midband, which was about 2,745 at the time.
With the market trading around 2,346 at the time, this 400 point upmove seemed like a fairy tale.
I remember saying that the ultimate target for the S & P 500 was to the 2,968.80 level. And not only are we here, but we had the first close above it.
I suspect the third time was the charm.
Finally, I remember a recent webinar of John's, as the market was pulling back, he asked what I thought. And I said I expected a rally to 2,968.80.
Then he put me on the spot and asked how long do I think this would take. My answer was simply that time tends to mirror each other.
In other words, if the market drops for two months, it will take about two months to rally.
And if you look at a daily chart of the S & P 500, you will see that the drop into the low on June 3rd took about a month. The actual top was on May 1st, so the drop was just over a month.
And now the market has rallied back to a new high in just over a month.
That was a pretty good estimate that worked out almost to the day.
As far as the bollinger band pattern is concerned, the general pattern is when price is at or under the lower band and moves inside the lower band, the first objective is to the midband.
And if the market can take out the midband, it should generally act as support.
The midband was tested twice after it was taken out. The second test took out the midband slightly.
And after holding the midband, the objective should be to the upper band, which is now 3,091.46.
And with this level around the next major resistance level, which is 3,125, I certainly expect a reaction there.
We shall see if that happens, but I would certainly be aware that a pullback could occur around that level. At least the odds favor that.
But I am getting ahead of the market.
Back to today.
The support level from yesterday's daily bar is in the 2,965 to 2,973 area.
Short term trends remain bullish.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading to the downside about 1.50.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 11.72
The VIX closed at 12.93 yesterday. This now puts the VIX within 43 cents of the 12.50 level we have been looking for.
14.06 should be resistance. And 13.28 should also offer resistance.
Watch to see how the VIX reacts around 12.50.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80 << HIT
Minor level: 2,929.73 **
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30 ***
First close above the 2,968.80 level. At this point, look for support at 2,949.20.
And if the S & P 500 can clear 2,998, it should head higher.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 5 points higher. With a higher projected open, look for support at 2,973.60.
A close today above 2,968.80 would be bullish.
Trend remains firmly bullish.
QQQ:
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06 **
Major level: 187.50 < Hit
Minor level: 185.94 **
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25 <
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
The QQQ closed at 190.01. The objective for the QQQ should be up to the 193.75 level.
189.04 should offer minor support. And minor resistance is at 192.19.
Technical support is at 188. Short term charts remain firmly bullish.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 155.15. The IWM closed lower, but still held above the midband, which is 154.51. Also, to move lower now, the IWM will need two closes under 154.69.
154.69 should offer minor support.
Short term trends remain bullish. So, buying against support is the best strategy.
TLT:
Major level: 134.38
Minor level: 133.60
Minor level: 132.03 **
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
The TLT closed out at 133.26. The TLT continues to test the upper band, which is 133.72.
The question now is if it can clear this level or fail. Patience is the key. Wait to see which event happens.
132.81 should now be support.
GLD:
Major level: 134.48
Minor level: 133.60 **
Minor level: 132.03
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
The GLD closed at 133.41. It moved back above the upper band, which is 131.93.
Starting to see a lot of volatility above the upper band.
131.25 should be support.
XLE:
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28 **
Major level: 62.50 <
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
The XLE closed at 62.75. It will need two closes above 63.28 to move higher.
62.50 should be support.
64.06 is a minor resistance level. Technical support is at 63.
AAPL:
Minor level: 203.13
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 196.88
Minor level: 190.63 **
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13 **
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 171.88
Minor level: 165.63
Major level: 162.50
Apple closed at 202.73. 200 should now offer support.
The next level on the upside is 203.13. If the Apple can move above this level, it should head higher.
Continue to buy at support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AVGO, FLT, ZBRA, MCD, FB, OLED, DECK, CBRL, CASY, BABA, KLAC, XLNX, KEYS, OMC, KMX
Bearish Stocks: DPZ, ALGN, KEX, GDDY, KFY, CAG, CARS, SBH, CXW, TUP, GEO
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
