While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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Yesterday, the market was rather tepid again ahead of the Fed announcement today.
Everyone seems to be waiting to see what the Fed will do. That announcement will come today at 2:00 EST.
For the day, the market closed 7.79 points lower. It closed at 3,013.18.
The S & P 500 did get as low as 3,000.94 before rallying about 13 points into the close.
The low for the day dropped just under the weekly support area of 3,002 to 3,004. The market will need to reclaim the higher end of the area to move up. And pre open, the S & P is trading about 6 points higher, so it should open above this range.
So, watch this range on an early morning pullback.
For the day, the S & P closed at 75% of the daily bar. Even though the daily bar made a lower high and lower low, the odds for today favor the high being violated before the low.
The resistance level from yesterday's daily bar is in the 3,009 to 3,010 area,
The support area from last week's weekly price bar is in the 3,002 to 3,004 area. This area should still be valid on a pullback.
The major negative for the market at this point is that the VIX has moved a bit higher. Watch the levels on the VIX below.
Hopefully, I will see you on today's webinar.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28 **
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 11.72
The VIX closed at 13.94 yesterday. 13.28 is the key level for today. A close above it today does suggest the VIX will move up to 15.63.
But, there is short term resistance at 14.06. So, watch this level today to see if the VIX reverses to the downside.
If the VIX does take out 14.06, I would not expect it to take out 14.84.
But, 13.28 should be support on the downside, so that's how the VIX reacts on a sell-off.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00 <
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85 ***
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.73 **
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
The S & P could not close under the minor 3,011.50 support level. I would expect this level to still act as support.
On the upside, watch the 3,017.60 level. If the market clears this level, I would expect it to head higher and act as support as well.
QQQ:
Major level: 196.88
Minor level: 196.10
Minor level: 194.53 **
Major level: 193.75 <
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
The QQQ closed at 193.78. The upside target for the QQQ should still be up to 196.88.
192.97 is minor support. Watch to see if this level holds. The QQQ did close just above the 193.75 level, so it should still be support.
Should open higher based on the strong move on Apple off earnings.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM made a strong push higher yesterday. It finally took out the high from the 24th.
For the day, the IWM was up 1.69 and closed at 157.84. This now suggests that if the IWM closes above 157.81 today, it should move up to 162.50.
156.25 should be support.
TLT:
Major level: 134.38
Minor level: 133.60
Minor level: 132.03
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47 **
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
The TLT closed at 131.83. To head lower, the TLT will need two closes under 130.47. And to move higher, two closes above 132.03.
The TLT has not confirmed either way. But, the daily trend is still bullish.
Should be volatile today with the Fed announcement.
GLD:
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16 **
Major level: 134.48 <
Minor level: 133.60 **
Minor level: 132.03
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
The GLD closed at 134.98. The GLD will still need two closes under 133.60 to drop to 131 and two closes above 135.16 to head higher.
Starting to head back to the upper band. How it trades at the upper band should tell us where the next move should be. 136.29 is the upper band.
134.38 should now be support.
XLE:
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28 **
Major level: 62.50 <
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Like the IWM, the XLE made a strong move yesterday. It closed the day out at 62.90. It is now back above the 62.50.
62.50 should offer short term support. And 62.11 is a minor support level. A break above 62.89 and it should continue to move higher.
AAPL:
Major level: 212.50 <
Minor level: 209.38
Minor level: 203.13 **
Major level: 200.00 <
Minor level: 196.88
Minor level: 190.63
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13
Major level: 175.00
Apple closed at 208.78. The objective continues to be up to 212.50.
Apple is up about $8 pre open after reporting last night. The 212.50 objective should be taken out at the open.
212.50 should offer support. And minor resistance is at 218.75.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: CMG, SHOP, AVGO, MA, PANW, OLED, PANW, HD, LRCX, BABA, V, CMI, DE, CB, JPM
Bearish Stocks: ALGN, AMGN, IRBT, SFLY, XEC, CLR, NOAH, SFM, CADE
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
