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Friday closed out the shortened trading week by closing 5.41 points lower. The S & P 500 closed at 2,990.41.
The market opened with a bearish gap of about 12 points and proceeded to drift lower to stop at 2,967.97
The move from the open to the low was 16.28 points. And the move back up from the low to the close was 22.44.
These ranges totalled 38.72 points. The swings were about 50% greater the daily average true range, which is now 25.71 points.
For the day, the S & P 500 closed at 86% of the range of the daily bar. This still puts the odds of violating Friday's high before the low.
And the support area from Friday's daily bar is in the 2,981 area.
Friday's low of 2,967.97 stopped about a point under the major 2,968.80 level. This level should offer support until it is violated.
For the week, the S & P 500 closed 48.65 points higher. The close, of course, was above the major 2,968.80 level.
And the weekly price bar closed at almost 90% of the range of the weekly bar.
This does suggest we should see follow-through this week.
The support area from the weekly price bar is in the 2,974 to 2,981 area.
The short term 30 minute and 60 minute charts remain bullish, which also confirms that we should see a push higher this week.
Technical support is in the 2,950 area.
Earnings should begin next week. The biggest event this week should be the release of the FOMC Minutes at 2:00 EST on Wednesday.
Pre open the S & P 500 is trading about 6 points lower.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 11.72
The VIX closed at 13.28 on Friday. The VIX got as high as 14.47 before pulling back to close exactly on the minor level.
To move higher, the VIX will need to close above 13.28 today. I generally like to see two closes above a level as confirmation that the next major level should be hit. But, Friday's close on the line will count.
14.06 should still offer resistance. And 12.50 should offer support.
SPX:
Minor level: 3,164.08
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85 ***
Major level: 2,968.80 << HIT
Minor level: 2,929.73
Minor level: 2,851.58
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
Support should still be at 2,949.20.
And if the S & P 500 can clear 2,998, it should head higher. This is a short term resistance level.
The next minor level on the upside is 3,007.85. But, the market will need to clear 2,998 first.
Trend still remains firmly bullish.
QQQ:
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06 **
Major level: 187.50 < Hit
Minor level: 185.94 **
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25 <
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
The QQQ closed at 191.05. The QQQ is still within 3 points of the 193.75 objective.
189.06 should still offer minor support. And minor resistance is at 192.19.
Technical support is at 188. Short term charts remain firmly bullish.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 156.68. The IWM manage to close above the major 156.25 level again. And it is holding the midband, which is now 154.47.
If the IWM does not hold the 156.25 level, I would expect strong support at 150.
To move higher, the IWM will need two closes above 157.81.
154.69 should offer minor support.
Short term trends remain bullish. So, buying against support is the best strategy.
Technical support is at 154.50.
TLT:
Major level: 134.38
Minor level: 133.60
Minor level: 132.03 **
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
The TLT closed out at 132.43. The TLT broke and closed 1.78 points lower.
It is under the upper band, which is now 134.18. It may retest the upper band again.
Beginning to look like it is failing at the upper band.
134.38 should be a resistance level. So, if the TLT does clear it, expect it to head higher.
A test of 131.25 is likely.
GLD:
Major level: 134.48
Minor level: 133.60 **
Minor level: 132.03
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
The GLD closed at 132.14. It dropped and closed exactly on the upper band.
With the GLD trading above the upper band, I would expect a retest of it if it does pullback.
134.38 is a resistance level and the GLD cannot clear this level, I would expect a pullback.
131.25 should be support.
XLE:
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28 **
Major level: 62.50 <
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
The XLE closed at 63.09. It will need two closes above 63.28 to move higher.
62.50 should be support. And minor support is at 62.89. Friday's low was 62.63, so it came within these levels.
64.06 is a minor resistance level. Technical support is at 63.
Short term charts remain bullish.
AAPL:
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 209.38
Minor level: 203.13 **
Major level: 200.00 <
Minor level: 196.88
Minor level: 190.63
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13
Major level: 175.00
Apple closed at 204.23. 200 should now offer support.
The next level on the upside is 203.13. If the Apple can move above this level, it should head higher. The objective should be to 212.50.
Short term charts remain bullish.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: NFLX, LMT, ADBE, FLT, MA, COST, APD, MLM, VRSN, MCD, HD, FB, OLED, HON, V, BABA, DIS, MSFT, WYNN
Bearish Stocks: RTN, USNA, SPR, KEX, NUS, DIS, TUP
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
