While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
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AMC Long at $16.16
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The pullback for the market continued. The S & P 500 ended up closing 5.88 points to the downside. It closed out the day at 2,879.84.
As I mentioned yesterday, I felt the S & P should not go farther than 2,871.08.
As it turned out, yesterday's low came to 2,874.68 before closing at 2,879.84.
So yesterday's low came to within 4 points of the downside confirming level.
The resistance levels are working as expected.
The top stalled right at the upside confirming line above the major 2,890.60 level.
And yesterday's low came back down to test the 2,871.08 downside level.
This level should hold as support for the market to head higher. And watch this level today if it tested.
The major negative or bear case at the moment is that this move has only traveled two levels. But it may not be over.
We should know that in a few days.
How will we know?
Of course, the first clue will be if the S & P 500 does close under 2,871.08 for two days. This would suggest that the market should drop to 2,812.50.
And if the market can clear 2,812.50, I would then expect a run back at 2,968.80.
The support level from yesterday's daily bar is in the 2,881 area.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 8 points higher. This projects to an open just under yesterday's high. The high was 2,888.57.
If the market clears the high, look for support there.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41 **
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 11.72
The VIX closed yesterday at 15.91. To move higher, the VIX will still need two closes above 16.41 to move higher. And the VIX still has not closed above it.
15.63 remains the key level for the VIX. If it does break under this level, I would expect it to head lower. If it takes out 15.63, look for a move to 14.06.
SPX:
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,949.25
Minor level: 2,910.15 **
Major level: 2,890.60 < < HIT
Minor level: 2,871.08 **
Minor level: 2,832.03
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor support should be at 2,880.90. The market closed about one point under this level.
The S & P 500 should open above it, so expect support at this level.
There is also the major 2,890.60, which no doubt will be tested. If the S & P 500 takes out 2,890.60, expect it to act as support.
Technical support should be in the 2,860 area.
QQQ:
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81 **
Major level: 181.25 <<
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
The QQQ closed at 182.34. At this point, the objective is to 187.50.
181.25 should still be support. And 178.13 should offer strong support. And minor support should be at 182.03.
Technical support is at 180.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 151.47. The IWM will still need two closes above 151.56 to move up to 156.25.
But, the IWM will still need to contend with clearing the midband, which is 155.67.
150 should be strong support. Minor support is at 150.78.
TLT:
Major level: 134.38
Minor level: 133.60
Minor level: 132.03
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47 **
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
The TLT closed out at 130.68. The TLT will still need two closes under 130.47 to test 128.13.
The TLT is testing the upper band from below now. The upper band is 130.85 and within 20 cents of yesterday's close.
Wait to see if it gets above the upper band or fails.
129.69 is minor support. And 132.03 should be resistance.
GLD:
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56 << HIT
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.49 131.
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
The GLD closed at 125.83. The key level for the GLD is 126.56. If the GLD can close above this level for two days, it could run to 131.
The GLD will need to hold the 125 level to move back up.
125 should offer support, so if the GLD breaks under it, I would expect more movement to the downside. If this should happen, watch the 123.44 level.
Two closes under 123.44 would suggest a drop to 119.
XLE:
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50 <
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16 **
Major level: 59.38
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.47
Minor level: 53.91
Major level: 53.91
The XLE closed at 60.70. The XLE should test 62.50. But it will need to clear 61.72 today.
The XLE is trading higher pre open based on an attack on two tankers.
Look to see if the XLE can clear 61.72. If it can, it should be support.
AAPL:
Minor level: 203.13
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 196.88
Minor level: 190.63 **
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13 **
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 171.88
Minor level: 165.63
Major level: 162.50
Apple closed at 194.19. At this point, I do expect a test of 200.
But, watch the 193.75 level. If Apple breaks under it, it could drop down to 187.
200 is a key level for Apple. If it does take out 200, it should move up to 250.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: LMT, SHOP, MA, LLL, COST, MLM, APD, MCD, CME, SAGE, V, CB, WIX, HSY, RACE, DG, IR, FIS, LLY
Bearish Stocks: GOOGL, FANG, APC, COP, WUBA, DDS, XEC, KSS, WDC, SINA, CNQ
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
