While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $2.37
Short June 20th - $15.50 call @ $.27
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $.80
CRM Long June 28th $155 Call @ $3.20
CRM Short June 28th $160 Call @ $1.00
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Yesterday, I suggested closing out the put side of the CRM position. The profit on the puts has helped to reduce the cost basis on the call debit spread.
The market saw a strong bearish day yesterday. The S & P 500 ended up closing at 2,917.38. Down 27.97 points on the day.
And the range picked up as well. The daily range was 30.51 points. Compared with the average true range of 27.55, it was an expansion.
We had been looking for an expansion after two days of contractions.
And this followed Monday where the VIX and the S & P 500 diverged.
They diverged by the fact that they both closed to the upside.
This usually suggests that something unusual is happening in the markets.
So, yesterday's reaction was not that unusual.
Having said that, the S & P 500 did close under the minor 2,949.25 level again.
This does suggest that the S & P 500 should test the major 2,890.60 level.
To avoid this, the S & P 500 would need to recapture the 2,949.25 level today.
And pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 12 points higher.
The daily price bar closed at 4% of the range, which does put the odds of violating the low before the high at around 95%.
The resistance level from yesterday's daily bar is in the 2,931 area.
And the support from last week's weekly price bar is in the 2,920 to 2,925 area. And with a close under the lower end, the S & P 500 will need to hold the 2,925 area to head higher.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41 **
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 11.72
The VIX closed at 16.30. For the day, it closed 1.04 points higher. But, it still closed under 16.41.
To move up to 18.75, the VIX will need two closes above 16.41. but, it is still resistance until violated.
But, the VIX did close above 15.63, so it should now be support.
The 15.63 level should still be resistance and yesterday's high came to 15.56. I still expect resistance at this level.
So, if the VIX does clear it, look for the higher prices to follow.
On the downside, minor support is at 14.84.
12.50 is still the downside objective.
SPX:
Major level: 2,968.80 <
Minor level: 2,949.25
Minor level: 2,910.15 **
Major level: 2,890.60 <
Minor level: 2,871.08
Minor level: 2,832.03
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Looking for the active objective of 2,968.80 level to be hit.
Support should be at 2,900.40.
I am still biased for the S & P to clear the major 2,968.80 and if it can, a move up to 3,095 is possible.
I don't see a break down in the markets. The S & P may trade between the 2,968 and 2,812 levels before taking ouot either side.
Short term charts remain bullish.
Technical support should be at 2,920.
QQQ:
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06 **
Major level: 187.50 < Hit
Minor level: 185.94 **
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
The QQQ closed at 184.93. Two closes above the minor 189.06 level and the QQQ should move up to 193.75. And a close today under 185.94 and the QQQ could test 181.
184.38 is a support level. If it holds, look for the QQQ to head higher. And to move higher, the QQQ needs to trade above 185.94.
Minor support should be at 187.89. And major support at 187.50.
Like the S & P 500, short term charts remain bullish.
Technical support should be at 184.
IWM:
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 151.15. The IWM continues to move away from the midband, which is now 154.68.
The IWM, will, of course, have to clear this level to move higher.
And a close today under 151.56 and the IWM should test 150.
Continues to be the weakest of the major markets.
150 should be strong support.
TLT:
Major level: 134.38
Minor level: 133.60
Minor level: 132.03 **
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
The TLT closed out at 132.82. For the day, it was up $0.41 and continues to trade around the upper band on the daily chart.
That level is now 132.89. If the TLT cannot reclaim the upper band, look for a pullback.
Starting to look tired. An uneven straddle or strangle should be considered.
132.81 should be resistance and the TLT closed one cent above it. 131.64 should offer support.
GLD:
Major level: 134.48
Minor level: 133.60
Minor level: 132.03 **
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
The GLD closed at 134.20. The GLD has now gone parabolic and this was the fourth day of trading above the upper band on the daily chart.
The upper band is now 130.71.
Starting to look like they are trying to pull in all the suckers who will be holding the bag when it drops. Stay away.
If the GLD takes out 134.38, I would expect it to continue higher. If not, a pullback of this overbought condition would be expected. Watch this level for the short term.
XLE:
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28 **
Major level: 62.50 <
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
Minor level: 58.60
Minor level: 57.03
Major level: 56.25
The XLE closed at 62.49, just one cent under the major level we were looking for support.
Look for 62.50 to hold as support.
Minor support is right at yesterday's low, which is 62.89.
If the XLE can clear the 62.89 level, look for a move higher.
The 60 minute chart did cross into an uptrend on Friday. Technical support is at 61.85.
AAPL:
Minor level: 203.13
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 196.88
Minor level: 190.63 **
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13 **
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 171.88
Minor level: 165.63
Major level: 162.50
Apple closed at 195.57. Apple did hit 200, but could not close above it.
193.75 should offer support. If Apple can hold this level, I would expect a push higher.
200 is a key level for Apple. If it does take out 200, it should move up to 250.
Technical support is at 190. The 60 minute chart has crossed into an uptrend. Buy at support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: BA, LMT, SHOP, NOC, ADBE, SPY, NOW, MLM, WDAY, HD, ZBRA, CME, EW, CMI, DATA, V, DE, WIX
Bearish Stocks: ALGN, BLUE, AMTD, FIZZ, TWTR, WES, BGSPRGO, AMTD
Be sure to check earnings release dates.