While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
DYN Long at $12.55
Premium Collected $0.48
VRX Long at $13.69
VRX Short June 30th-$16.50 call at $0.30
APA Long Oct $47.50 Call at $3.45
APA Short Oct $52.50 Call at $1.10
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The S & P 500 continues to trade in a consolidation pattern. The S & P 500 gapped up at the open yesterday and ran up to a high of 2,450.42 before selling off to a low of 2,437.03.
It made a push up to 2,444.26 before closing at 2,439.07.
The high for the day fell just short of the 2,453.12 next upside level. The S & P 500 will have to close above that level to confirm the move up to 2,500.
The low for day came in right at the 2,437.50 level. As I have mentioned, because it has been violated, it should offer support.
The weekly resistance level is 2,440 to 2,442 and when the market got below it, it offered resistance. This is the nature of support and resistance. Especially intra day.
This seems to be the nature of the market during this bull run. Quick moves to the upside followed by days of consolidation or minor sell offs.
And next week we have the market holiday. Monday is a one half day session with a close at 1:00 EST and Tuesday the market is closed for the July 4th Holiday here in the States.
So, including today, there are only four days left before the Holiday.
The question is do we get the July 4th rally?
Quite frankly, I would not bet against it. Short term intra day charts remain bullish.
This morning, there is a bias for a bear open. Follow the support levels and the resistance levels for the VIX to determine if the market should reverse to the upside.
Continue to follow the resistance levels.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 14.45
Major level: 14.06
Minor level: 13.67
Minor level: 12.89
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 12.11
Minor level: 11.33
Major level: 10.94 ***
Minor level: 10.55 <
Minor level: 9.77
Major level: 9.38 <
The VIX got as low as 9.68 yesterday, just 30 cents above the objective.
9.77 is a minor support level and the one to watch today. On the upside, 10.55 should be resistance.
I would not expect the VIX to climb higher than 10.94 on a rally.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,500.00 <
Minor level: 2,484.38
Minor level: 2,453.12 ***
Major level: 2,437.50 <
Minor level: 2,421.88
Minor level: 2,390.62
Major level: 2,375.00
Minor level: 2,359.38
Minor level: 2,328.12
Major level: 2,312.50
To move lower, the S & P 500 would need two closes under 2,421.88. At this point, the market has not even come close to it.
Minor support should still be at 2,433.60. Two closes under this level would confirm a move down to 2,421.88.
On the upside, resistance is at 2,445.30.
To move to 2,500, the S & P 500 will need two closes above 2,453.12. The market has hit it once and I would expect a retest of that level.
QQQ:
Major level: 146.87
Minor level: 146.09
Minor level: 144.53
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41 <
Major level: 140.63 ***
Minor level: 139.85 <
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
The QQQ gapped up and peaked out at 142.29, before closing at 140.58. This was just under the major 140.63 level.
To move up to 143.75, the QQQ will need two closes above 141.41. Two closes under 139.85 and the QQQ should drop to 137.50.
Minor support should be at 140.23 and 139.84. Minor resistance is at 141.41.
IWM:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63 <
Minor level: 139.85 **
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
The IWM gapped up and got above the 141.41 level before dropping to a low of 140.20. It closed at 141.08.
The low came in right at the 140.23 minor support level, I mentioned yesterday. I also mentioned to see if the IWM can clear 141.41. The high for the day was 141.53. When it could not get above it, that was the signal the IWM should drop.
140.63 should offer support. 141.80 could offer resistance.
TLT:
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13 **
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78 <
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
It was a slow grind, but the TLT finally hit the 128.13 objective. The high for the day was 128.57.
At this point, 127.35 should offer support. To move up to 131.25, the TLT will need two closes above 128.91.
127.93 should offer minor support and 128.71 is minor resistance.
GLD:
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 120.32
Minor level: 119.53 ***
Major level: 118.75 <
Minor level: 117.97 ***
Minor level: 116.41
Major level: 115.63
The GLD closed at 118.36, dropping 1.07. To move down to 115.63, the GLD will need two closes under 117.97, which should offer support.
118.75 should now be minor resistance.
XLE:
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63 <<
Minor level: 64.85 ***
Minor level: 63.28 <<
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
The XLE is struggling to get above the 65.63 level. It closed at 64.24.
Support should be at 64.06. And 65.23 should be a tough level to get through on the first attempt.
FXY:
Minor level: 87.89
Major level: 87.50
Minor level: 87.11 **
Minor level: 86.33 <
Major level: 85.94 **
Minor level: 85.55
Minor level: 84.77
Major level: 84.38
Minor level: 83.60
Minor level: 83.20
Major level: 82.81
The FXY closed at 86, just 4 cents above the key 85.94 level. You know the implication for the FXY if it closes for two days under that level.
If you followed the short strategy I outlined on the FXY, you should be moving your stop down.
Minor support is at 85.74 and 86.33 is minor resistance.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 162.50, 156.25, 150, 143.75, and 137.50
145.31 should be short term support. And 147.27 short term resistance.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: REGN, TSLA, AGN, HUM, FDX, BDX, ANTM, UNH, ANTM, CI, EXPE, NVDA, BABA, WYNN, JNJ, CELG, VRTX, KMB
Bearish Stocks: BWLD, AAP, CASY, CLB, CVS, DG, DLTR, SLB, TSCO, TGT, FL, SFLY, DKS, BGS, HAIN, DVN
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
