While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
DYN Long at $12.55
Premium Collected $0.48
COWN - Long at $14.95
VRX Long at $13.69
APA Long Oct $47.50 Call at $3.45
APA Short Oct $52.50 Call at $1.55
APA Long Oct $45 Put at $2.75
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I suspect with the strength of this market, I should not be shocked that 2,437.50 provided any resistance. Or I suspect I should say that once again, our objective has been achieved.
But quite frankly, I did expect some resistance at that level. And the fact that the S & P 500 sliced right through it like a hot knife through butter, tells us we are going higher.
The fact that the S & P 500 continues to hit our upside objectives tells us that shorting is still not the wise thing to do or consider.
With 2,437.50 exceeded, the next upside level is 2,500. And with a close Friday at 2,439.07, the market is within 60 points of that objective.
Let me outline where support should be for this market.
Based on last week's weekly price bar, I would expect support in the 2,422 to 2,425 area. If the market does pullback, this should be the area to look at for a turn.
Based on the May monthly price bar, support should be in the 2,385 to 2,400 area. The low for the month of May was 2,352. Based on the high close percentage of the monthly bar, I would expect the high of 2,418.71 to be violated before the low.
Earnings continue this week, but the number of companies reporting are slowing down as we head to the end of the earnings season.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 14.45
Major level: 14.06
Minor level: 13.67
Minor level: 12.89
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 12.11
Minor level: 11.33 **
Major level: 10.94
Minor level: 10.55
Minor level: 9.77
Major level: 9.38
The VIX hit a low of 9.58 on Friday. This is just 20 cents above the major 9.38 support level.
The question still remains ... does the VIX break under it?
Higher levels should still act as resistance.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,484.38
Minor level: 2,453.12 ***
Major level: 2,437.50 <
Minor level: 2,429.70
Minor level: 2,414.10
Major level: 2,406.30
Minor level: 2,398.48
Minor level: 2,382.82
Major level: 2,375.00
2,437.50 objective hit! The S & P 500 will need two closes above 2,453.12 to confirm a move up to 2,500.
2,429.70 should be support. Short term 30 & 60 minute charts remain bullish. Buying against support is still the preferred strategy.
QQQ:
Major level: 146.87
Minor level: 146.09
Minor level: 144.53
Major level: 143.75 ***
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
143.75 is the objective and the QQQ came within 26 cents of it on Friday.
142.58 to 142.97 should be minor support. 144.53 should be minor resistance.
IWM:
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63 <
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
The IWM closed at 139.85, exactly on the minor level. Objective should be to 140.63.
138.28 should now be support.
The IWM just moved into an uptrend on the 30 minute chart and is very close to an uptrend on its 60 minute chart.
TLT:
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78 **
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.22 **
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.09
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.96
The TLT actually broke above 125, hitting a high of 125.77 on Friday.
This morning it looks like is should open under 125. I still expect the higher levels to offer resistance. Also, the mid band on the daily chart is 125.98 and the TLT came very close to it Friday. Watch to see if this level acts as resistance.
GLD:
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 120.32
Minor level: 119.53 ***
Major level: 118.75 <
Minor level: 117.97
Minor level: 116.41
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 114.85
Minor level: 113.28
Major level: 112.50
The GLD came within 17 cents of the 121.88 objective. This is a key level for the GLD. If it breaks through it, I would expect a move up to 125. If it can't, it could drop fast.
121.09 should now be minor support. 122.27 should be minor resistance.
XLE:
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 67.97 **
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63 <<
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
The XLE sold off and closed under 65.63. Based on this, I added a hedge to the APA position.
To move down to 62.50, the XLE will need two closes under 64.85.
65.43 is minor resistance. And 64.45 is minor support.
FXY:
Major level: 87.50 <
Minor level: 87.11
Minor level: 86.33 ***
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.55
Minor level: 84.77
Major level: 84.38
Minor level: 83.60
Minor level: 83.20
Major level: 82.81
The FXY popped up and came within 30 cents of the 87.50 level. This level should be resistance.
Watch to see if the FXY can clear 87.50.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 162.50, 156.25, 150, 143.75, and 137.50
Apple moved up out the consolidation range and closed at 155.45. 156.25 is the objective. 154.69 should be minor support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: PCLN, AMZN, GOOGL, REGN, TSLA, AVGO, ULTA, DPZ, MMM, GD, COST, NFLX, BDX, FB, ALGN, EXPE, CB, NVDA
Bearish Stocks: GWW, CXO, SLB, DXCM, DRQ, PDCE, DKS, GCO, CLR, CNQ, CNQ, NBL, KORS
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
