While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
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Premium Collected - $1.65
BERY Long Sept $50.00 Call at $2.70
BERY Long Sept $47.50 Put at $1.50
APA Long July $40.00 call @ $2.10
APA Long July $40.00 put @ $1.90
SYMC Long at $20.99
SYMC Short June 8th- $21 call at $1.40
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Yesterday, the S & P 500 continued to follow through to the upside, after reversing off the minor 2,675.83 level last week.
For the day, the market was up 12.25, and closed at 2,746.87.
The range for the day was only 8.62 points. The range was well below the average true range which is now 27.70 points.
The narrow range and the fact that the VIX is almost back to the long term 12.50 support levels is a warning that a pullback could happen.
2,753.93 is the next level on the upside to watch. And it could possibly offer resistance the first time it is tested.
On the downside, 2,744.10 and 2,695.30 should offer support.
And support from last week's price bar is in the 2,720 area. And 2,735 should also offer support.
The only negative for the market is that the VIX is almost back down to its longer 12.50 level. That and the fact that both the S & P 500 and the VIX closed to the upside last week. This is a divergence and usually warns us to a change in direction, even if temporarily.
And the 30 minute chart for the VIX is bullish. So, it could bounce here, but I would expect resistance around 13.85 to 14.06.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 3 points higher.
This projects to an open around 2,750. Watch to see if the S & P 500 can clear 2,753.93.
Continue to monitor the longer term levels for the market.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06 **
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 10.94
The VIX closed at 12.74 yesterday. This, of course, is within 25 cents of the major 12.50 level. If the VIX does not break under 12.50, I would expect it to bounce.
Resistance should be at 14.06 and 14.84. And 13.28 is minor resistance.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93 **
Major level: 2,734.40 <
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
Major level: 2,578.10
Minor level: 2,558.58
Watch to see if the S & P 500 can clear 2,753.93 today. Also, a minor resistance level is at 2,749.
On the downside, 2,724.60 should offer support.
Short term momentum is bullish. Continue to buy against support.
QQQ:
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
The QQQ closed at 174.30. This is now within 70 cents of the 175 objective. And the QQQ needs to clear this level to head higher.
Minor support is at 172.66 and 173.44.
Like the S & P 500, the 30 minute and 60 minute charts remain bullish. Still stronger than the S & P 500 index. Continue to buy against support.
The QQQ is trading above the upper band on its 30 minute chart, which tells us it is overbought short term.
IWM:
Major level: 165.63
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28 **
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
The IWM closed at 164.71. The IWM is within $1 of the 165.63 objective.
162.50 should offer strong support. And 163.56 is a short term support level. Short term momentum remains bullish.
TLT:
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.61
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92 **
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
The TLT closed at 119.43. Since reversing off the midband, the TLT is down about 3 points. And a close today under 119.92 would indicate a test of 118.75.
119.92 is a minor resistance level. A bounce at 118.75 is expected.
GLD:
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.61
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05 **
Minor level: 122.27
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
The GLD closed 122.37, closing just under the major 123.44 level again. 125 should offer strong resistance on the upside.
The GLD closed under the midband. The midband is 123.04. This level should now be resistance.
Objective should be to 121.88.
XLE:
Major level: 81.25
Minor level: 80.47
Minor level: 78.91
Major level: 78.13
Minor level: 77.35
Minor level: 75.78
Major level: 75.00 <
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
The XLE closed at 75.62 on Friday. At this point, I expect a retest of the 75 level.
I would expect support at 75, however if it is violated, strong support should be at 71.88. If 71.88 cannot hold, a deeper pullback could happen.
FXY:
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Minor level: 88.09
Minor level: 87.70
Major level: 87.50 <
Minor level: 87.31
Minor level: 86.92
Major level: 86.72
Minor level: 86.53
The FXY closed at 87.16. The FXY is back to the midband on the daily chart. The midband is 86.99. If this level cannot hold, look for a further sell off.
87.50 should now be resistance. A break under 87.11 and look for the FXY to drop to 85.94.
AAPL:
Major level: 193.75 <<
Minor level: 192.97
Minor level: 191.41 **
Major level: 190.63
Minor level: 189.85
Minor level: 188.28
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 186.72
Minor level: 185.16
Major level: 184.38
Apple closed at 191.83. Yesterday's high was 193.42. The 193.75 level is a major resistance level. If Apple can clear it, it will continue higher. If it can't, look for a move lower.
The 30 minute chart has moved into a downtrend, which does suggest that short term momentum is waning.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, GOOGL, NFLX, FDX, ALGN, ADBE, LGND, CP, ODFL, ACN, CME, VRSN, KLAC, DECK, LULU, GRUB, MSFT, ADI, WIX
Bearish Stocks: CHTR, CB, JNJ, LOGM, CASY, ALL, JACK, WBA, HSIC
Be sure to check earnings release dates.