Last week ended with an almost perfect doji bar on the weekly time chart.? The week opened at 2,100.13 and closed at 2,099.13.
The range for the week was only 20.16 points.? This was less than half of the average true range, which is 52.77 points.
This sets up a few scenarios.
The first is the weekly price bar itself.? A doji can mean indecision. Or it can be a pause before the move continues.
The second set up is the range contraction.? After a contraction, there will often be a range expansion.
Last week also had a divergence between the S & P 500 and the VIX. Both closed to the upside.? The usual relationship is that they close opposite each other.
This week is relatively quiet with regards to market wide reports.
Next week will be more of a highlight with the Fed meeting.
After the weak jobs report last Friday, it seems that a rate hike will most likely not come next week.
Here are the key levels for the markets.
VIX:
Minor level - 20.31
Major level - 18.75
Minor level - 17.19
Minor level - 15.63 *
Minor level - 14.06 *
Major level - 12.50 *
Minor level - 10.94
Friday, the VIX closed at 13.47, just above the minor 13.28 support level.
Support should be at 11.72 and 12.50.? 13.28 should also act as support and if the VIX can hold that level, it should try and move up to 14.84.
S & P 500 Cash Index:?
Minor level - 2,140.62
Major level - 2,125.00
Minor level - 2,109.38
Minor level - 2,078.12
Major level - 2,062.50
Minor level - 2,046.88
Minor level - 2,015.62
Major level - 2,000.00
The S & P 500 stopped Friday at 2,085.36, just .54 under the 2,085.90 minor support level.
Minor resistance is at 2,109.40 and 2,101.60.
Support should be at 2,093.80 and 2,085.90.
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Nasd 100 (QQQ):?
Major level - 112.50
Minor level - 111.71
Minor level - 110.16 *
Major level - 109.38
Minor level - 108.60
Minor level - 107.03
Major level - 106.25
Minor level - 105.46
The QQQ stopped Friday at 109.34, just 4 cents under the 109.38 minor support level.
After bottoming at 109.34, the QQQ rallied to close at 110.06, just 10 cents under the 110.16 level.
Watch how the QQQ reacts around the 110.16 level.
Minor resistance should be at 110.94.
Minor support should still be at 109.38.
TLT:?
Major level - 132.81
Minor level - 133.60
Minor level - 132.03 *
Major level - 131.25 *
Minor level - 130.46
Minor level - 128.91
Major level - 128.13
The TLT moved up big after the Non Farm Payroll on Friday.
It spiked up? and closed at 133.23.? 133.60 is within reach.
Minor support should be at 132.03 and 131.25.
GLD:
Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 121.09
Minor level - 119.53
Major level - 118.75
Minor level - 117.96
Minor level - 116.41 *
Major level - 115.63
Minor level - 114.85 *
Minor level - 113.28
Major level - 112.50
The GLD had the largest move up last week off the jobs report. It closed at 118.88, just a few cents above the 118.75 level.
At the moment, this is heavily diverting.? I say this because the Gold Vix also spiked up almost 9% on Friday.?
XLE:
Major level - 71.88
Minor level - 71.09
Minor level - 69.53
Major level - 68.75 *
Minor level - 67.96
Minor level - 66.41 *
Major level - 65.63
Major level - 62.50
The objective should be up to 68.75.
Minor support should be at 66.41 and 66.02.? Resistance is at 67.58.
Apple:
Major levels for Apple are 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
96.88 should still be minor support level for Apple.?
Apple is two points from the 100 area.? Watch how it reacts at that level.
Watch list:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, ULTA, LLL, MLM, RTN, ACN, ROK, SWK, ASML, CTAS, DKR, CCI, BURL, DRI, SINA
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Bearish Stocks:? BA, SIG, DIS, WAB, SBUX, NKE, HXL, CUK, AL
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Be sure to check earnings release dates.
