While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
AMC Long at $15.27
Premium Collected - $2.80
Short March $16 call @ $0.55
UNIT Long at $17.00
Premium Collected - $0.35
VIPS Long @ $17.19
Short March 9th - $17.50 call @ $1.65
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Yesterday, you should have added the long VIPS stock position and sold the $17.50 call that expires next Friday.
Also, yesterday closed out the month of February 2018. For the month, the S & P 500 closed 109.98 points to the downside, at 2,713.83. That was a drop of 3.89%.
And the range for the month was 303 points. And as I pointed put yesterday, the low for the month was about the upper band on the monthly chart. The low was 2,532.69 and the upper band is 2,534.71.
Based on the monthly price bar, support should be in the 2,625 area and the 2,650 area. These would be levels to look for buying to come into the market.
On a daily basis, the S & P 500 closed 30.45 points to the downside. And intra day had a range of close to 50 points.
Based on the low close percentage on Tuesday, our price expectation was that the low of Tuesday would be violated before the high. And the market certainly complied with that.
The market gapped up at the open yesterday before moving up to a high of 2,761.52. From there the rally faded and the marekt sold off all day to close almost 48 points lower.
With another low close percentage bar yesterday, we still expect the low of Wednesday's price bar to be violated before the high.
And it should do that at the open. Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 5 points lower.
Watch the 2,695 area to see if support holds. The VIX will have to reverse to the downside before a long entry should be considered.
Booking.com, formerly known as Priceline, reported lats night and is trading about $129 to the upside.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31 **
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19 **
Minor level: 14.06
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 10.94
The VIX closed at 19.85. This was once again above the 18.75 level. 20.31 should be resistance, but if it can't, I would expect a test of 21.88.
I still expect higher levels to offer resistance. And it is possible the VIX could run up to 25 before reversing.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93 **
Major level: 2,734.40 <
Minor level: 2,714.88 **
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
The S & P 500 will have to reclaim the 2,714.88 level to head higher. On the downside, I still expect strong support at the 2,695.38 area. If 2,695.28 is taken out, the S & P 500 should head lower.
QQQ:
Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 **
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19 **
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
The QQQ closed at 167.21. This was just two cents above the minor 167.19 level.
The 165.63 should offer support on the first test.
167.19 should offer minor support.
IWM:
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.66
Major level: 146.88
The IWM closed at 150.35. This is just 35 cents above the major 150 support level.
Watch to see if 150 holds. If it can't a drop to 149.22 would be expected.
TLT:
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75 <
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63
The TLT closed exactly on the 118.75 level. The high for the day was 118.83. This level should be resistance. Watch to see if the TLT breaks under this level. If it can't, I would expect it to bounce for a it before the next move.
117.19 should offer support.
GLD:
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78 **
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Just like the TLT closing exactly on the 118.75 level, the GLD closed exactly on the 125.00 level. A break under this level tells us the GLD should head lower.
The next level on the downside after 125, is 124.22. A break under 124.22 and the GLD should drop
to 121.88.
A break under 125 and it should be resistance.
XLE:
Minor level: 76.95
Major level: 76.56
Minor level: 76.17
Minor level: 75.39
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53 **
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 67.97 **
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63
The XLE closed at 66.74. A close today under 67.97 and the XLE should test 65.63.
Also, the XLE broke back under the midband on the daily chart. That level is 67.22 and should offer minor resistance.
Resistance should now be at 68.75.
FXY:
Major level: 91.41
Minor level: 91.22
Minor level: 90.83
Major level: 89.06 <
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Minor level: 88.09
Minor level: 87.70
Major level: 87.50
Minor level: 87.31
Minor level: 86.92
The FXY closed at 89.94. It closed exactly at the upper band, which is also 89.94. Needless to say, this is an important level.
A failure here and the FXY should drop. If it can clear the upper band again, it should head higher.
AAPL:
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 180.47
Minor level: 178.91**
Major level: 178.13
Minor level: 177.35
Minor level: 175.78
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 174.22
Minor level: 172.66
Major level: 171.88
Apple closed at 178.12, closing one cent under the 178.13 level. Apple still needs two closes above 178.91 to test 181.25.
181.25 could offer resistance. A violation of this level and Apple should head higher.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, BA, LLL, ADBE, CTAS, PANW, FFIV, RHT, JPM, CRM, GPN, ZTS, SFLY, CTSH, PTC, MSFT,
Bearish Stocks: REGN, MLM, AGN, ZBH, KMB, DGX, HSY, CL, KHC, MMP, PZZA, HCN, TUP
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
