While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
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DUST Long $4.50
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FEYE Long at $17.18
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FCX Long at $12.74
FCX Short March 15th - $13 Call @ $0.24
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Yesterday saw a massive upmove in the markets. And this was on a day when Boeing gapped down at the open after their second accident, dragging the DOW down over 100 points at the open.
The market shrugged this negative news to close higher. Even the DOW closed about 200 points higher and this included the 22 point drop on BA.
And for the day, the S & P 500 ended up closing 40.23 points higher. It closed at 2,783.30.
But, I outlined yesterday how I felt that the week should start out strong. This was mainly due to the high close percentage on Friday.
I also stated the fact that last week's weekly bar was bearish, so with the strength Friday, I expected the move to go up early in the week and to possibly hit resistance and turn back.
The question is what would negate the negative weekly price implication?
A close above the midpoint of last week's price bar, which was 2,769.58, would be the clue that perhaps the market is stronger than expected.
And in one day, the market managed to close above the midpoint of the weekly bar. In fact, it closed about 13 points above it.
This would also imply that a test of last week's high, which was 2,816.88, is likely. A close back under the midpoint would bring back the bearishness.
But the S & P 500 closed back above the minor 2,753.93 level which should offer support on a pullback. And if the market does close above the 2,753.93 level today, the upside objective should be to 2,812.50.
Tomorrow is our webinar. If you have questions or any charts you would like me to discuss, please email me directly at davismdt@gmail.com and I will try to fit them into the agenda.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed out at 14.33 yesterday. It had a drop of 10.72%.
The 14.85 level should now be resistance and if the VIX does close under 14.85 today, it should test 12.50.
Strong resistance should be at 15.63, if 14.85 is taken out.
SPX:
Major level: 2,890.60
Minor level: 2,871.08
Minor level: 2,832.03
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93 **
Major level: 2,734.40 <
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
As I said above, a close today above 2,753.93, and the SPX should test 2,812.50. This would be significant because it's the third test of this level.
At this point, minor support is at 2,771 and 2,758.80.
And with a close above the midband on the daily chart, I would expect this level to act as support on a pullback. That level is now 2,736.37.
QQQ:
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56 **
Major level: 175.00 < Hit!!!
Minor level: 173.44 **
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
The QQQ rallied strong yesterday as well. For the day, it was up just over 2% and 3.56 points. It closed at 174.73.
Yesterday's high came to within 15 cents of the 175 objective. Close enough to say it was hit ... again!
At this point, support should be at 172.66 and 173.44.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
The IWM closed at 154.29. For the day, it was up 1.75%. And it is just under the midband on the daily chart. The midband is 156.38.
If the IWM can clear the midband, it should continue higher. And at this point, we do have an objective up to 156.25.
The 30 minute chart has crossed into a downtrend which does indicate that short term momentum has shifted to the downside. Technical resistance is at 155.
TLT:
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 118.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
The TLT closed at 121.21. At this point, the key for the TLT will be to see if it can move above the major 121.88 level. The odds do favor the TLT breaking through 121.88.
120.31 should be strong support. And 120.80 is technical support.
GLD:
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66 **
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
The GLD closed at 122.24. The GLD will still need two closes above 122.66 to test 125.
We were looking for a bounce and we are getting it. The question is how high will it go? I would expect resistance at 123.44. So, watch to see if the GLD can clear this level.
The 30 minute chart is bearish. And technical resistance should be at 123.89.
XLE:
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
The XLE closed at 64.90. It managed to close a nickel above the 64.85 level, so it would still need two closes under this level to drop.
If the XLE can clear 65.63, I would expect it to head higher and that level to be support.
63.28 is a minor support level that should contain the price action. The 30 minute chart is bearish and the midband is 65.47.
So, the 65.63 area should be critical for the XLE.
FXY:
Major level: 89.84
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Major level: 87.50
Major level: 86.72
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36 ***
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
The FXY closed at 85.72. This now suggests that if the FXY closes under 85.36 today, it should drop to 85.16.
The 85.16 level should offer support. If it doesn't, I would expect 84.38 to hold.
AAPL:
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13 **
Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 159.38
Minor level: 153.13
Major level: 150.00
Predicted High: 180.73
Predicted Low: 177.07
Apple closed up $5.99 yesterday. It closed at 178.90. A close today above 178.13 and Apple should test 187.50.
175 should be major support. And minor support should be at 176.56.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: COST, ZBRA, APD, CMI, CCI, DIS, YUM, CNI, DUK, ROKU, ORCL, SO, LNT, BCE, AGO
Bearish Stocks: NFLX, HUM, GD, SJM, CTS, FANG, INGR, STMP, HAS, EOG, VLO
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
