While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $0.46
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.30
FCX Long at $12.74
FCX Short March 15th - $13 Call @ $0.24
AMC Long at $14.44
AMC Short March 22nd - $14.50 Call @ $0.43
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Yesterday, I suggested a new position. It was a weekly covered call on AMC. The suggestion was to buy the stock and sell next week's $14.50 call.
The market continued to inch higher yesterday. For the day, the S & P 500 closed 8.22 points higher. It closed the day at 2,791.52.
And the high for the day was 2,798.32, which is within 15 points of the major 2,812.50 objective.
As said the other day, we still need to respect the bull move until price action dictates otherwise.
But, we still have the bearish weekly bar from last week. As I said on Monday, the week should shape up with strength early in the week and selling pressure later in the week.
And this was based strictly on the formation of last Friday's daily bar and last week's weekly bar.
The question I proposed yesterday was this ...
"What would negate the negative weekly price implication?"
And my conclusion was simple. This is what I wrote.
"A close above the midpoint of last week's price bar, which was 2,769.58, would be the clue that perhaps the market is stronger than expected."
And now we have two consecutive closes above last week's midpoint. At this point, I would expect a retest of last weeks high which was 2,814.37. You no doubt recognize that this is very close to our price objective using our resistance levels.
On today's webinar, I will show the weekly levels and the various price implications.
Yesterday, the daily bar closed at 41% of its range. This does slightly favor yesterday's low being violated before the high.
And the range for the day contracted. The range was only 11.59 points or less than one half of the daily average true range which is 26.53.
The support area from yesterday's daily bar is in the 2,789 to 2,793 area. Pre open, the
S & P 500 is trading about 2.50 points higher.
We start to get some interesting earnings report this afternoon. After the close today, we will hear from CASY. And tomorrow after the close, we get ADBE, ULTA, and AVGO.
I hope to see you in today's webinar. I do have some interesting charts to share.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed out at 13.77 yesterday. It had a drop of 3.91%.
The high for the day was 14.70, but that should not be a shock to you as yesterday I said this: "The 14.85 level should now be resistance and if the VIX does close under 14.85 today, it should test 12.50."
Strong resistance should be at 15.63 if 14.85 is taken out.
With the VIX approaching its long term support level, start to think about a pullback.
SPX:
Major level: 2,890.60
Minor level: 2,871.08
Minor level: 2,832.03
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93 **
Major level: 2,734.40 <
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
The 2,812.50 level should be the objective. Having said that, the minor 2,795.40 level could offer resistance.
At this point, minor support is at 2,788.10.
And with a close above the midband on the daily chart, I would expect this level to act as support on a pullback. That level is now 2,736.58.
This to me would be the key level in the event of a pullback.
QQQ:
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56 **
Major level: 175.00 < Hit!!!
Minor level: 173.44 **
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
The QQQ closed at 175.69, or 69 cents above our 175 objective.
For the QQQ to move higher, it will need to closes above 176.56.
At this point, support should be at 172.66 and 173.44. And 178.13 could offer some resistance on the upside.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
The IWM closed at 154.37. It is still just under the midband on the daily chart. The midband is 156.38.
This, of course, is the key level to watch. It should still be resistance until it is violated.
The objective is still to 156.25. If the IWM can clear 154.69, it should move higher.
TLT:
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 118.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
The TLT closed at 122.06. The TLT not only moved above 121.88, but it did close above it. The next minor level will be 122.27.
121.29 should be minor support. And 120.80 is technical support. The 30 minute chart is close to crossing into an uptrend. If it can, I fully expect more movement to the upside.
GLD:
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66 **
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
The GLD closed at 122.98. This was the first close above 122.66. A close today above 122.66 would imply a move up to 125.
We were looking for a bounce and we are getting it. The question is how high will it go? I would expect resistance at 123.44. So, watch to see if the GLD can clear this level.
The 30 minute chart is bearish. And technical resistance should be at 123.89.
XLE:
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
The XLE closed at 65.32, close to 65.63 but not above it.
If the XLE can clear 65.63, I would expect it to head higher and that level to be support.
63.28 is a minor support level that should contain the price action. The 30 minute chart is bearish and the midband is 65.47.
So, the 65.63 area should be critical for the XLE.
FXY:
Major level: 89.84
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Major level: 87.50
Major level: 86.72
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36 ***
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
The FXY closed at 85.75. At this point now, a close today above 85.36 and the FXY should test 85.94.
The 85.16 level should offer support. If it doesn't, I would expect 84.38 to hold.
AAPL:
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13 **
Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 159.38
Minor level: 153.13
Major level: 150.00
Predicted High: 178.40
Predicted Low: 167.42
Apple closed at 180.91. At this point, I am biased for a test of 187.50. But, the caveat at the moment is that the daily midband is 186.02. And that should be resistance until it is violated.
175 should be major support. And minor support should be at 176.56. And 181.25 could offer some resistance.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: COST, ZBRA, APD, CMI, CCI, DIS, YUM, CNI, DUK, ROKU, ORCL, SO, LNT, BCE, AGO
Bearish Stocks: NFLX, HUM, GD, SJM, CTS, FANG, INGR, STMP, HAS, EOG, VLO
Be sure to check earnings release dates.