While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $0.46
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.30
FCX Long at $12.74
Total Premium Collected $0.24
AMC Long at $14.44
AMC Short March 22nd - $14.50 Call @ $0.43
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The short $13 call on FCX expired Friday. It was not a tremendous premium, but quite frankly its better than not collecting it. And I will look to collect some more this week.
For this week, there is one short call position that expires and that is the short $14.50 call on AMC.
Friday, the S & P 500 continued to move higher. For the day, it closed up 14 points, at 2,822.48.
Since testing the midband on the daily chart, the S & P 500 has now moved up 108 points. And the market took out the prior top and closed above it Friday. The prior high was 2,816.88, Friday's close was about 5.50 points above it.
The daily range was 19.94 points. And the average true range now reads 25.43 points. The daily average true range has really contracted. The daily average true range peaked at 71.94 on January 9th and is now less than one half of that.
Friday's daily bar closed at 59% of the range of the bar. This does suggest the odds favor Friday's high before the low.
Last weeks weekly bar closed 79.41 points higher. And it closed above the high of the prior week which is bullish.
The range for the week was 92.12 points which exceeded the weekly average true range of 86.04 points. This is also a bullish sign.
The support area from last wee's weekly bar is in the 2,785 to 2,794 area.
And the support area from Fridays daily bar is in the 2,816 to 2,820 area.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 3.50 points higher.
I do have one final comment for today. Wanted to do a quick shout out to my man from down under. He shall remain nameless because I did not ask him if I could use his name.
But, he knows whom I am referring to.
He will frequently email me and discuss deals he is doing and or looking at. But after listening to last week's webinar and my discussion on Boeing, he did a trade on it. He ended up closing it out for a one day gain of 30%.
The fact that he took action on something I shared is what I liked to hear. That is why I try and teach these different techniques on the webinars.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed out at 12.94 on Friday. Friday's low was exactly 12.50. So, our downside objective was hit again.
13.28 is a minor resistance level and was actually Friday's high. It should still be resistance. And 14.06 should also be resistance.
On the downside, the key level is 10.94. The VIX will have to drop under this level to move lower. If it can't, we may see a bounce.
I don't see a market reversal until the VIX bottoms out and begins to reverse.
SPX:
Major level: 2,890.60
Minor level: 2,871.08
Minor level: 2,832.03 **
Major level: 2,812.50 <
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
The market will need two closes above 2,832 to move higher. Minor support should be at 2,800.
Friday closed just above a minor support level, which is 2,822.30. The market should open just above this level today. Watch to see if it holds as support.
On the upside, minor resistance is at 2,846.70.
The 30 minute chart continues to move closer to crossing into an uptrend. If it can do that, I would expect more movement to the upside.
QQQ:
Major level: 181.25 <
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56 **
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
The QQQ closed at 178.35. The objective for the QQQ is still to 181.25.
At this point, support should be at 176.56 and 175.00. And with the QQQ clearing the minor 178.13 level, it should offer support.
The 30 minute chart has moved into an uptrend. Technical support should be at 174.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
The IWM closed at 154.76. It continues to trade just under the midband on the daily chart. The midband is 156.35 and Friday's high was 155.87.
The IWM will need to clear 154.76 to head higher. Watch this level on a pullback as most likely, the IWM will open above it.
I am still biased for a violation of the midband, but at this point, you can wait to see what the IWM does. We know it will either fail or break through.
153.13 should be support.
TLT:
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.49 **
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 118.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
The TLT closed at 121.75. The TLT is trying to close above the major 121.88 level. If it can't clear 121.88, I would expect a pullback should happen.
But, minor support is at 121.48.
The 30 minute chart has crossed into an uptrend. This does suggest further movement to
the upside. 121 should offer technical support.
GLD:
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66 **
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
The GLD closed at 122.97. Watch to see if the GLD can hold the 121.88 level. If it can, it should bounce. A break under it and I would expect more movement to the downside.
The 30 minute chart is bearish. And technical resistance should be at 123.70. I would expect a selloff if the GLD rallies to the midband.
122.66 is minor support.
XLE:
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
The XLE closed at 65.51. The XLE is bouncing around the 65.63 level. This level should be support.
The next minor level is 66.41. Two closes above this level and the XLE should test 68.75.
On the downside, the minor 65.23 level should offer support. If the XLE breaks under it, a drop to 64 should happen.
FXY:
Major level: 89.84
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Major level: 87.50
Major level: 86.72
Major level: 85.94 <
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36 ***
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
The FXY closed at 85.55. At this point, the FXY should test 85.94. And Friday's 30 minute chart remains bearish. Resistance is at 85.79. And minor support is at 85.35.
AAPL:
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13 **
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Predicted High: 188.09
Predicted Low: 184.15
Apple closed at 186.12. Friday's high came within 20 cents of the 187.50 level. Apple closed just above the midband on its daily chart. That price level is 186.09.
At this point, I would expect the midband to offer support.
Apple is a bit oversold in the short term.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: CMG, ROP, BDX, COST, ZBRA, SHOP, MCD, CLX, MCD, VRSK, KMB, MLNX, YUM. MSFT, PYPL, NKE, WPX, D, ETSY, CREE
Bearish Stocks: DPZ, FFIV, URI, STMP, LVS, FIZZ, SFLY, CBT, AN, STLD
Be sure to check earnings release dates.