While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $0.46
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.55
FEYE Short March 29th - $17.50 Call @ $0.25
FCX Long at $12.74
Total Premium Collected $0.24
AMC Long at $14.44
AMC Short March 22nd - $14.50 Call @ $0.43
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Yesterday I suggested you sell the March 29th - $17.50 call on the FEYE position. This brings to 55 cents the total call premium collected on this position.
So, at this point, you should one short call position for this Friday and one for next week.
Moving onto the markets.
The S & P 500 closed 10.46 points higher. For the day, it closed at 2,832.94. And what makes yesterday's close even more important is that is was the first close above 2,832.03.
Granted, it did not close above it by much. Less than one dollar. But, never the less, it did close above it.
This now sets up a number of different price scenarios. The first is that if the S & P 500 can close above 2,832.03 today, the upside objective becomes 2,890.60.
I know this seems rather remarkable when you consider the fact that the S & P 500 bottomed out on December 24, 2018 at 2,346.58.
Assuming that the 2,890 level does get hit, it would mean that the market has made a move of about 23% since December.
At this point, I am not saying that the 2,890 level getting hit is a foregone conclusion, rather today's close should tell us if that is the case.
But, with the minor 2,832 level being hit, it does suggest that support should be at the major 2,812.50 level.
And the 30 minute chart for the S & P 500 just crossed into an uptrend, which suggests that price should continue higher as well.
And yesterday's close percentage came in at 82% of the daily price bar. This does suggest that the odds of violating yesterday's high before the low is just over 80%,
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 11 points higher. Assuming this trading holds up into the open, the market should open above yesterday's high of 2,835.41. This level should be support on a pullback.
And additional support from yesterday's daily bar should be in the 2,827 to 2,829 area.
The support area from last weeks weekly bar continues to be in the 2,785 to 2,794 area.
Earnings do continue this week. This afternoon, FDX reports. Wednesday afternoon, we will hear from NKE. And TIF reports before the open on the 22nd.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed out at 13.10 yesterday. It bounced slightly, but still managed to close under the minor 13.28 level I mentioned yesterday.
Clearly, the VIX is almost back to long term support.
The VIX will need to stabilize before we can anticipate a reversal in the markets. So, at this point, higher levels should be resistance.
Still looking for a push down to 12.50.
Technical resistance is in the 14.50 area.
SPX:
Major level: 2,890.60
Minor level: 2,871.08
Minor level: 2,832.03 **
Major level: 2,812.50 <
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
As I mentioned above, a close today above 2,832.03 and the objective should be up to 2,890.60.
The major 2,812.50 level should now be support. And I would expect support at the minor 2,822.30 level.
The 30 minute chart has now crossed into an uptrend. This also implies the market should head higher.
QQQ:
Major level: 181.25 <
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56 **
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
The QQQ closed at 178.45. The objective for the QQQ is still to 181.25.
176.56 should now be support. And 178.13 is a minor support level.
The 30 minute chart has moved into an uptrend. Technical support should be at 174. Buying against support is the best strategy at the moment.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
The IWM closed at 155.75. It continues to trade just under the midband on the daily chart. The midband is 156.35 and yesterday closed 60 cents under it.
The IWM will need to clear 154.35 to head higher.
Still biased for a violation of the midband, but at this point, you can wait to see what the IWM does. We know it will either fail or break through.
153.13 should be support. And minor support should be at 154.69.
TLT:
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.49 **
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 118.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
The TLT closed at 121.68. The TLT is trying to close above the major 121.88 level. If it can't clear 121.88, I would expect a pullback should happen.
The TLT continues to try and close above 121.88. Yesterday's high came to 121.87.
But, minor support is at 121.48.
The 30 minute chart has crossed into an uptrend. This does suggest further movement to the upside. 121 should offer technical support.
GLD:
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66 **
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
The GLD closed at 123.04. The objective now should be to the 125 level.
The 30 minute chart is still bearish. And technical resistance should be at 123.60. I would expect a selloff if the GLD rallies to the midband.
122.66 is minor support.
XLE:
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41 **
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
The XLE closed at 66.42. Yesterday was the first close above 66.41. This now suggests that if the XLE can close above 66.41 today, it should test 68.75.
The 68.75 level also just happens to be the midband on the daily chart. What the XLE does at that level should tell us the direction of the next move. Though I am biased for a break above the midband, we need to be cognizant that this level could offer resistance.
66.02 is minor support. And strong support is at 65.63.
FXY:
Major level: 89.84
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Major level: 87.50
Major level: 86.72
Major level: 85.94 <
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36 ***
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
The FXY closed at 85.65. With two closes above 85.36, the FXY should test 87.50.
30 minute chart remains bearish. Resistance is at 85.75. The FXY will need to clear 85.75 to head higher.
AAPL:
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 198.44
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Predicted High: 190.19
Predicted Low: 185.85
Apple closed at 188.02. This was the first close above the major 187.50 level and the midband on the daily chart.
The midband is now 186.14 and Apple is now above it. I was biased for Apple to clear the midband, and now that it has, it should offer support.
Apple is a bit oversold in the short term. But, the 30 minute chart is strongly bullish, so buying after a pullback is the suggested strategy.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: CMG, ROP, BDX, COST, ZBRA, SHOP, MCD, CLX, MCD, VRSK, KMB, MLNX, YUM. MSFT, PYPL, NKE, WPX, D, ETSY, CREE
Bearish Stocks: DPZ, FFIV, URI, STMP, LVS, FIZZ, SFLY, CBT, AN, STLD
Be sure to check earnings release dates.