While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $1.06
ET Long at $11.78
Premium Collected $0.35
DBX Long at $19.70
Premium Collected $0.75
DBX Short March 27th - $21 Call @ $.25
ET Long at $7.50
Premium Collected $.60
AGNC Long at $13.19
Premium Collected $.40
AGNC Short March 13th - $13.50 Call @ $0.40
MFA Long at $4.20
MFA Short April $5 Call @ $.40
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The short calls on ET and AGNC expired on Friday. And the $9 call on SNAP was exercised, so your shares were sold at that price.
I also suggested another covered call and this trade was on MFA.
The markets continues to trade in turmoil with the coronavirus starting to close down America.
Friday, it appeared the S & P 500 would find some support only to once again break and close on its lows.
The high for the day was 2,453.01 and was hit right at 11:00 AM EST. From that point, the sell off began. The market hit a low of 2,295.56 before closing out the week at 2,304.92.
The daily price bar closed at 6% of the range of the bar, which suggests the low will be violated.
And the daily range ended up at 157.45 points. This was greater than the daily average true range, which is 149.06.
So, the bearish close and the fact that the range expanded suggests that more selling will follow.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 48 points higher. The market is reacting to a Fed announcement that they will purchase treasuries.
Certainly, the market needs some positive news to stabalize the overall markets.
At this point, Friday was the 7th day that traded under the lower band on the daily chart.
This shows you how oversold this market is. The lower band is 2,537.24 and this is a level the S & P needs to reclaim to get a push.
If I run a scan of stocks under their lower bands, the results come back at 999. And this is because that is the maximum amount of results the scan can produce. The number is probably higher.
The other metric are the number of stocks in uptrends and downtrends. I run a scan weekly of the trending stocks across multiple timeframes.
There were only 25 stocks in uptrends on Friday. And a lot of them are reverse etf's, meaning they are short instruments.
The number of stocks in downtrends also maxes out at 999.
In looking at the weekly price chart, we also see how bearish the market is. For the week, the S & P closed 406.10 points lower.
And the week closed out at 8.6% of the weekly price bar.
The weekly average true range is now 155.41 points. This is the largest I have ever seen.
But the key for this week, is that the S & P closed under the midband on its weekly price chart.
The midband is 2,513.06 and the S & P tried to hold this level, only to fail.
Resistance from last week's weekly price bar is in the 2,407 to 2,422 area.
And the resistance from Friday's daily bar is in the 2,374 area.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 40.62
Minor level: 39.84 **
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.16
Major level: 34.38
Minor level: 33.60
Minor level: 32.03
The VIX closed at 66.04. The VIX closed 5.96 points lower on the day. It was down 8.28%.
The VIX and the S & P diverged on Friday. Both closed lower on the day. This usually tells us that the market is shifting.
Look for resistance around 72.
A break under 72 and the VIX should continue lower.
S & P 500:
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.75
Minor level: 2,851.65
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,617.25
Minor level: 2,539.06
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,460.95
Minor level: 2,382.85 **
Major level: 2,304.75 <<
Minor level: 2,226.65
The S & P closed at 2,304.91. The S & P dropped under the major 2,304.75, only to come back and close virtually on that level.
Watch the minor 2,382.85 level. If this can hold, a move up to 2,500 is possible.
Watch to see if the S & P can clear the 2,358 level. If it can, it would be bullish.
The lower band on the 60 minute chart is 2,185.37. Watch this level on a pullback.
QQQ:
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31 ***
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
The QQQ closed at 170.70. The lower band on the 60 minute chart is 161.48. Watch this level today on a pullback.
If the QQQ can hold the minor 170.31 level, it could push up to 175.
179 is a minor resistance level. If it can clear this level, expect a move higher.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44 **
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 101.40. The IWM closed 2.47 points lower for the day.
Still trading well below the lower band on the daily chart, which is now 126.62.
93.50 should offer some support. And the 107 area is resistance.
TLT:
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.48
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.66
Major level: 146.88
Minor level: 146.10
Minor level: 144.53 **
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
The TLT closed at 159.43. The TLT closed 11.15 points higher on the day, But, after an inside day, we expect an expansion. And that is what we got.
Watch for support at around 155. Resistance should be at 170.
GLD:
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47 **
Minor level: 153.91 **
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.67
Major level: 146.89
Minor level: 146.11
The GLD closed at 140.11. Looking for a move to the midband on the daily chart, which is 137.
136.67 is the lower band on the 60 minute chart and should offer support.
150 should be resistance on the upside. And minor resistance is at 142.
XLE:
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.47
Minor level: 53.90
Major level: 53.12
Minor level: 52.34
Minor level: 50.78
Major level: 50.00
Minor level: 49.22
Minor level: 47.65
Major level: 46.88
Minor level: 46.09 **
Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75 <
The XLE closed at 25.86. The XLE actually closed .25 higher on the day.
Completely oversold at this point.
The XLE continues to remain oversold. The lower band on the daily chart is 39.77.
18.29 is the lower band on the 60 minute chart. And the XLE actually closed above it. Watch to see if this level holds. You know what will happen if it can't.
AAPL:
Major level: 325.00
Minor level: 321.88
Minor level: 315.63
Major level: 312.50
Minor level: 309.38
Minor level: 303.13
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88 **
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50 <
Minor level: 284.38
Minor level: 278.13
Major level: 275.00
Minor level: 271.88
Apple closed at 229.24. Apple closed $15.54 lower yesterday.
And Apple close under the midband on its daily chart. The midband is 235.75. Watch this area today. If Apple cannot reclaim this level, it could drop much lower.
Apple is trading just above the lower band on its 60 minute chart. That level is 224 Watch this level today for support.
250 should be resistance.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: ERY, CLX, TDOC, DOG, KR, UUP
Bearish Stocks: CMG, ORLY, INTU, AVGO, FLT, IDXX, LII, MCD, ALGN, MMM, NSC, CMI, ADP, HON, IBM, BA, DIS, ADI, UHS, AZPN, AAP
