While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $1.06
ET Long at $11.78
Premium Collected $0.35
DBX Long at $19.70
Premium Collected $0.75
DBX Short March 27th - $21 Call @ $.25
ET Long at $7.50
Premium Collected $.60
AGNC Long at $13.19
Premium Colleced $1.20
AGNC Short April 3rd - $13.50 call @ $0.80
MFA Long at $4.20
MFA Short April $5 Call @ $0.40
FCX Long at $6.93
FCX Short April 3rd - $7 Call @ $0.35
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Before I begin, I do want to mention that I suggested a short call against the AGNC position yesterday. If you followed the alert, you would have sold the $13.50 call that expires next Friday and collected 80 cents.
I usually like to get this update out before the market opens. But, I felt that today is such a critical day for the market that I wanted to wait until after the open to see if there was follow-through.
This is because the S & P managed to trade above the lower band yesterday, but failed to close above it.
This action suggested one of two things to me.
Either we would try and trade above it. Or if we couldn't, there would be another leg lower.
Thankfully today it is the former, not the latter.
But, once again the extreme bollinger bands did an excellent job of measuring how oversold the market is.
The lower band is now 2,498.26 and as I write this, the S & P is trading at 2,573.
So, the market has managed to trade back above the lower band. This level should now be support.
But, we know that after this rally stalls out, we should retest the lower band. And that should tell us if a major bottom is in.
Support from yesterday should be around 2,490.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 40.62
Minor level: 39.84 **
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.16
Major level: 34.38
Minor level: 33.60
Minor level: 32.03
The VIX closed at 63.95. The VIX actually closed 2.28 points higher on the day. So, the VIX and the S & P diverged again yesterday. Both closed higher on the day.
This now means that the S & P and VIX closed for two days lower and now has had two consecutive days where they both closed higher.
As I write this, the VIX is trading lower. Watch the upper band, which is 50.24.
Ideally for this market to calm down, it needs to close back inside the lower band on the daily chart.
S & P 500:
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.75
Minor level: 2,851.65
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,617.25
Minor level: 2,539.06
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,460.95
Minor level: 2,382.85 **
Major level: 2,304.75 <<
Minor level: 2,226.65
The S & P closed at 2,475.56. The S & P did manage to take out 2,500, which is what we were looking for.
Watch the minor 2,539 level today. This should be support.
2,550 should provide technical support.
QQQ:
Major level: 185.92
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25 **
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
The QQQ closed at 182.30. Look for support at the major 181.25 level.
And if the QQQ can close above 182.81 today, look for a move up to 187.50.
Technical support is around 184.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44 **
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 109.97.
Still trading below the lower band on the daily chart, which is now 121.83. This level should be resistance, until the IWM can close above it.
The 105 area should provide technical support.
TLT:
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.48
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.66
Major level: 146.88
Minor level: 146.10
The TLT closed at 162.54. The TLT closed virtually on the upper band on the daily chart, which is 162.65, for the second day.
If the TLT breaks under the upper band, look for a move lower.
Watch this level today.
Resistance should be at 164. And support at 158.
GLD:
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35 ***
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.67
Major level: 146.89
Minor level: 146.11
The GLD closed at 151.30.
Watch the major 153.13 level today. It needs to clear this level to head higher.
The 150 area should now be support.
XLE:
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.47
Minor level: 53.90
Major level: 53.12
Minor level: 52.34
Minor level: 50.78
Major level: 50.00
Minor level: 49.22
Minor level: 47.65
Major level: 46.88
Minor level: 46.09 **
Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75
The XLE closed at 28.64.
Still about $7 under the lower band. The lower band on the daily chart is now 35.15.
The 28 area should now be technical support.
AAPL:
Major level: 325.00
Minor level: 321.88
Minor level: 315.63
Major level: 312.50
Minor level: 309.38
Minor level: 303.13
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88 **
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50 <
Minor level: 284.38
Minor level: 278.13
Major level: 275.00
Minor level: 271.88
Apple closed at 245.52. Apple is trading about $4 higher as I write this.
Apple is still in an uptrend on its daily chart. But, it's below the midband, which is 236.60. This should now be support until it is violated.
The 243 area should be technical support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: ERY, CLX, TDOC, DOG, KR, UUP
Bearish Stocks: CMG, ORLY, INTU, AVGO, FLT, IDXX, LII, MCD, ALGN, MMM, NSC, CMI, ADP, HON, IBM, BA, DIS, ADI, UHS, AZPN, AAP