While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
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DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
AMC Long at $15.27
Premium Collected - $3.10
Short March 29th-$15 Call @ ($0.30)
UNIT Long at $17.00
Premium Collected - $0.35
VRX Long at $16.40
Short April 6th-$16.50 Call @ ($0.50)
Premium Collected - $0.50
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Before I begin today, I do need to mention that the markets will close Thursday at 2:00. And Friday all market are closed for Good Friday.
This means that the short $15 call on AMC expires this Thursday, instead of Friday.
The markets bounced hard yesterday. For the day, the S & P 500 was up 70.29 points, closing at 2,658.55. From a technical standpoint, this bounce should not be all that shocking.
I say this because once again, the extreme bollinger bands would have been helpful to determine when the markets should bounce. Here is why.
The 60 minute chart for the S & P 500 was in an uptrend. This was even with the selling pressure last Thursday and Friday.
And price had dropped under the lower band on the 30 minute chart. With this formation, a bounce is expected.
And that is what happened. The thing that we cannot predict is how hard the bounce should be.
At this point, the resistance area from last week's weekly price bar, which is in the 2,662 to 2,665 area, should be monitored.
The S & P 500 closed about 4 points under the lower level yesterday, so this area should be tested today.
If this level is violated, the next resistance level from last week's price bar is in the 2,680.84 area.
It does seem odd that the very day the market has a strong dead cat bounce, I brought up whether this bull market is ending.
We do need to be mindful that the odds favor the low of last week's weekly price bar being violated before the high.
In looking at our resistance levels, as I mentioned, the market has dropped three levels off the last top. The usual pullback in a bull market is two levels.
This would mean that this rally would stall out around the 2,734.40 level. At least this would be the level to watch for a possible reversal. If the market can clear this level, it would void the idea that the bull market is ending.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading to the upside about 12.50 points. This would project the open at around 2,671, or just above the weekly resistance level. Watch the 2,680 area for possible resistance.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19 **
Minor level: 14.06
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 10.94
The VIX closed at 21.17 yesterday. A close today under 23.44 would indicate a move down to 18.75.
23.44 should be resistance. Minor support is at 20.31. A break under 20.31 and it should continue lower.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75 **
Minor level: 2,597.65
Major level: 2,578.10
Minor level: 2,558.58
Minor level: 2,519.53
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor support should be at 2,627. And resistance should be at 2,675 and 2,700.
Also, watch the weekly levels I mentioned above.
QQQ:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06 **
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
The QQQ closed at 164.40. A close today above 164.06 and the QQQ should test 168.75. 159.38 should offer minor support.
165.63 should be resistance.
IWM:
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13 <
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.66
Major level: 146.88
The IWM closed at 153.33, just 20 cents above the major 153.13 level. We were looking for support at 150 and Friday that is where the IWM stopped.
151.56 should be minor support. And 156.25 should offer resistance.
TLT:
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31 <
Minor level: 119.92 **
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
The TLT closed at 119.71. A close today under 119.92 and the TLT should drop to 118.75.
I do need to point out that the daily chart has moved into a downtrend.
GLD:
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78 **
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.87
The GLD took out the 128.13 objective we were looking for.
129.69 should still be minor resistance. 127.34 should be minor support.
XLE:
Minor level: 76.95
Major level: 76.56
Minor level: 76.17
Minor level: 75.39
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41 **
Major level: 65.63
The XLE closed at 66.97, exactly on the minor level. The XLE continues to bounce off the midband and the 200 ema on the daily chart. To move higher, the XLE will need to clear the 68.75 level.
Yesterday's low was 66.76, four cents under the 66.80 level that we were looking at for minor support. This level should continue to offer support.
67.19 should also offer support.
FXY:
Major level: 92.19
Minor level: 92.00
Minor level: 91.61 **
Major level: 91.41 <
Minor level: 91.22
Minor level: 90.83
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Minor level: 88.09
The FXY dropped and closed at 90.91. The FXY dropped back under the upper band.
Support should be at 90.63.
AAPL:
Minor level: 178.91 <
Major level: 178.13
Minor level: 177.35
Minor level: 175.78
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Apple closed at 172.77. 175 should offer resistance, so if Apple can cleat this level, it should head higher. 168.75 should be minor support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: BURL, KSU, HLF, MPC, FSLR, APC, CLR, COP, HFC, DK, WPM, WLL, DO, CROX
Bearish Stocks: TSLA, COO, ADS, WHR, CB, CLX, ZBH, KMB, DIS, ALB, CELG, WBA, LAMR, CVS, CERN, PZZA, WAGE
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
