While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $1.65
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $0.81
RIG Short March 29th - $10.50 Call @ $0.35
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.55
FEYE Short March 29th - $17.50 Call @ $0.25
FCX Long at $12.74
Total Premium Collected $0.48
FCX Short March 29th - $13 Call @ $0.24
NVDA Long March 29th - $172.50 Call @ $4.20
NVDA Short March 29th - $177.50 Call @ $2.20
.........................................................................................
The markets managed to bounce yesterday. The S & P 500 managed to close 20.10 points higher.
It closed out the day at 2,818.46. This, of course, put the market back above the major 2,812.50 level.
The high for the day was 2,829.87 which means that once the market topped out, it dropped 11.41 points into the close.
I mention this because I said there was technical resistance around 2,826. This level was roughly the midpoint on the 10 minute chart. On today's webinar, I will show this chart as well as the 30 minute chart.
The 30 minute chart was and is in an uptrend, so buying off the 10 minute lower band was a prudent move.
And the market bounced right back to where it should be which is the midband on the 10 minute chart.
For today, the market will need to clear the midband, which is now 2,824. And support exits at the midband on the 30 minute which is 2,800.
So, from a technical standpoint, there is support at 2,800 and minor resistance at 2,824.
And the support area from yesterday's daily bar is in the 2,815 to 2,817 area.
I have been saying that the VIX should help us determine if the selloff should continue.
The main resistance level on the VIX we were monitoring was the 18.75 level. Had the VIX broken through that level and gone to 21.88, I felt a deeper pullback would be possible.
As it turned out, the high on Monday came to 17.85 before selling off. And yesterday is closed 1.65 points lower. For the day, it was down 10.1% lower.
But, once again the VIX is approaching the major longer term support line of 12.50.
This will continue to put us on alert that a reversal could happen.
But, the S & P 500 is above the midband on the daily chart which should act as support. And the daily chart for the S & P 500 is actually very close to crossing into an uptrend.
If that can happen, I would expect any pullback to be short-lived.
I will show these charts today as well.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 6 points lower. Watch the levels above and I hope to see you later today.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed out at 14.68 yesterday. This was the first close under the minor 14.85 level. A close today under it would suggest a drop to 12.50.
At this point, 15.63 should be resistance and minor resistance is now at 14.84.
SPX:
Major level: 2,890.60 <
Minor level: 2,871.08
Minor level: 2,832.03 **
Major level: 2,812.50 <
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
The S & P 500 managed to close back above the major 2,812.50 level. This level should still be support. And support is at the minor 2,797.90 level.
The 30 and 60 minute charts continue to be bullish. Watch to see if the S & P 500 can clear the resistance level at 2,824.
QQQ:
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69 **
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
The QQQ closed at 179.05. The QQQ got as high as 180.69 yesterday. It will have to clear 181.25 to head higher.
But, if the QQQ does drop to 175, I would expect support there.
Like the S & P 500, both short term charts are bullish. Technical support is at 176.
178.13 is a short term support level. Technical resistance is at 179.45.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44
The IWM closed at 151.86 selling off from the midband which is now 152.82.
Watch to see if the IWM can clear the midband.
The IWM did bounce as we expected. But, technical resistance is at 153.
TLT:
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39 **
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.61 **
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
The TLT closed at 124.97 right at the upper band and the major 125 level.
As you know, this is highly indicative of an overbought condition. Enter long at your own risk.
Watch the minor 126.56 level on the upside. A failure at that level and the TLT should drop. 123.44 should offer support.
GLD:
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00 < HIT
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66 **
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
The GLD closed at 124.30. Since hitting the 125 objective, the GLD has now pulled back slightly.
If the GLD cannot take out 125, I would expect a deeper pullback. Watch to see if it can clear in a few days.
The 60 minute chart is still in a downtrend. So, weakness could come in the short term.
123.44 should still be minor support.
XLE:
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41 **
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
The XLE closed at 66.44. The XLE managed to close above 66.41. This would suggest that if the XLE closed above 66.41 today, it should move up to 68.75.
But, the XLE is still trading just under the midband on its daily chart. That price level is 68.78. The XLE will have to, of course, clear this level.
66.02 is a minor support level. And 65.63 should offer strong support.
Short term charts remain bullish. Buy against support.
FXY:
Major level: 89.84
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Major level: 87.50
Major level: 86.72 <
Major level: 85.94 <
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
The FXY closed at 86.25. Back to the midband which is now 86.32. Also, there is minor support at 86.13.
At this point, if the FXY cannot clear the midband, I would expect it to head lower.
AAPL:
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 198.44
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19 **
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
Predicted High: 189.44
Predicted Low: 184.14
Apple closed at 186.79. Watch to see if the midband holds as support. The midband is 186.56 and Apple is sitting right on it.
And both short term charts remain bullish, so wait for an entry to go long.
184.38 is minor support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: CMG, MELI, ORLY, AVGO, WAT NOW, MA, MCD, VRSN, EW, CRM, WBC, CB, HON, XLNX, ZBH, KMB, DRI, MSFT, WP, PYPL, ZEN
Bearish Stocks: LMT, HUM, NOC, LLL, GS, FFIV, CAT, WHR, URI, CTS, JPM
Be sure to check earnings release dates.