7While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $1.06
ET Long at $11.78
Premium Collected $0.35
DBX Long at $19.70
Premium Collected $0.75
ET Long at $7.50
Premium Collected $0.60
AGNC Long at $13.19
Premium Colleced $1.20
AGNC Short April 3rd - $13.50 call @ $0.80
MFA Long at $4.20
MFA Short April $5 Call @ $0.40
FCX Long at $6.93
FCX Short April 3rd - $7 Call @ $0.35
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The short $21 call on DBX did expire on Friday, as it settled under the strike price. I will be looking to sell more calls against this position.
Tomorrow closes out the first quarter of 2020. And quite frankly, this has been the worst quarter the equity markets have experienced in a long time.
Since topping on February 19th at 3,393.52, the S & P hit a low of 2,191,86 on March 23rd. This was a drop of 35.4% in a month. Actually, the move was two days more than a month.
And we were looking for a possible bottom to perhaps come in at the anniversary date of the top, which would have been March 19th. The bottom actually came in 2 days later.
The question is will the March 23rd bottom be a generational bottom, similar to the bottom in 2009?
There are a couple of comparisons we can make.
The first was that the bullish percent index hit a low of 1.4% on March 12th. At the bottom in 2009, this reading hit a low of 1.60%.
So, at this bottom, the reading was actually lower than in 2009.
I do want to point out, that the bullish percent index closed Friday at 70.8%.
So, this index began at 78.8% just before the top and dropped to a low of 1.4% and now reads 70.8%.
I bring this up because it is almost back to overbought territory.
For a significant bottom to be put in, we would need to see a close above the lower band on the daily chart. And Thursday it closed above the lower band. Even with Friday's sell-off, it still managed to close above the lower band, which, as a good sign.
Now that the S & P closed above the lower band, it sets up two price objectives.
The first would be for a move to test the midband, which is 2,996.
The second price objective is that I would expect a retest of the lower band after it meets resistance.
There are two other price levels I would be looking at on a rally. The first level is around 2,775 and the second level is around 2,935.
These levels are based on retracement levels of the downmove. I will share how I calculate them on this week's webinar.
Friday, the S & P closed 88.60 points lower. The S & P closed at 2,541.47.
Even with the sell-off, it still managed to close above the lower band, which is 2,494.14.
This level should now offer support.
Resistance from Friday's daily bar should be in the 2,550 area. Above that level is resistance at 2,568.
Friday's range was 95.89 points. This was only 64% of the average daily true range. So, even though the S & P closed at 22% of the range of the daily bar, it was not a bearish had the range been equal to or greater than the average range.
For the week, the S & P closed 236.55 point higher. It closed 10.26% higher.
And the weekly price bar ended up being a bullish engulfment, which is a bullish price formation. It did not close above the high from the prior week, which was 2,562.98, but it came within 21.51 points of doing so.
Never the less, the weekly price bar did close back above its midband on the weekly chart. That price level is 2,514.70. This was bullish. And this is a level to watch now for support.
Support from last week's weekly price bar is in the 2,414 to 2,416 area.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 19 points higher. Watch to see if the S & P can clear 2,568.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 40.62
Minor level: 39.84 **
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.16
Major level: 34.38
Minor level: 33.60
Minor level: 32.03
The VIX closed at 65.54 The VIX closed 4.54 points higher.
The VIX is stll trading above the upper band on the daily chart. The upper band is now 51.43.
So, the VIX is about 15 points above the upper band. This shows you how overextended the VIX is.
Technical resistance is around 98. And support is at 50.
S & P 500:
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.75
Minor level: 2,851.65
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,617.25
Minor level: 2,539.06 **
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,460.95
Minor level: 2,382.85
Major level: 2,304.75
Minor level: 2,226.65
The S & P closed at 2,541.47. By holding the minor 2,539.06 level. the objective should be up to 2,656.
The 2,500 level should offer support.
2,440 should provide technical support. Watch to see if the market can hold this level. If it can't, it should head down.
QQQ:
Major level: 185.92
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81 **
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
The QQQ closed at 185.30. Watch the major 185.92 level today. If it can clear this level, it should provide support.
Technical support is around 181.
And support from yesterday's daily bar is in the 186.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44 **
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 112.56.
Still trading below the lower band on the daily chart, which is now 121.09 This level should be resistance, until the IWM can close above it. The IWM is getting close to the lower band.
The 108 area should provide technical support.
TLT:
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.48
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.66
Major level: 146.88
Minor level: 146.10
The TLT closed at 167.70. The TLT closed above the upper band on the daily chart, which is 163.22.
Watch the upper band for support.
Watch this level again today.
Resistance should be around 177. And support at 158.
GLD:
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35 **
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.67
Major level: 146.89
Minor level: 146.11
The GLD closed at 152.25. A close today under the minor 152.35 level, and the GLD should drop to 150.
Watch the major 153.13 level today. It needs to clear this level to head higher.
The 150 area should now be support.
XLE:
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.47
Minor level: 53.90
Major level: 53.12
Minor level: 52.34
Minor level: 50.78
Major level: 50.00
Minor level: 49.22
Minor level: 47.65
Major level: 46.88
Minor level: 46.09 **
Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75
The XLE closed at 28.33. Still about $7 under the lower band. The lower band on the daily chart is now 35.59.
The 27 area should now be technical support.
AAPL:
Major level: 325.00
Minor level: 321.88
Minor level: 315.63
Major level: 312.50
Minor level: 309.38
Minor level: 303.13
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88 **
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50 <
Minor level: 284.38
Minor level: 278.13
Major level: 275.00
Minor level: 271.88
Apple closed at 247.74. Apple closed $10.970 lower on Friday.
Apple is still in an uptrend on its daily chart. It is above the midband, which is 236.88. This should now be support until it is violated.
The 250 area should be technical resistance. And it would be support, if Apple can clear it.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: TLT, TDOC, CTXS, QDEL, ONGM
Bearish Stocks: KEYS, WCN, LGND, CHD, MMS, DDS, WWE, ASGN, DRQ, ARCH, ALTR
