While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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As we wind down the month of March 2018, we can take a look at how the monthly price is shaping up. With an early close tomorrow and the markets closed on Friday, I suspect today maybe the last meaningful trading day for the month.
At this point, the monthly price bar for the S & P 500 has a high of 2,801.90 and a low of 2,585.90. And with yesterday's close at 2,612.62, we can see that the close is toward the low end of the price bar.
The range for the month is 216. And the monthly average true range is 118 points. So, we can see that the range is expanding.
Having said that, at this point, the March monthly price bar is an inside bar. This is a price bar with a lower high and a higher low. With an inside bar forming and a range contraction, this tells us to expect more volatility.
The other key factor we can gain from looking at the monthly chart is that the upper extreme band is 2,554.31. The low came to within 30 points of this level, and has rebounded. A close under the upper band would be bearish.
At this point, the midpoint of the monthly price bar is 2,694. The S & P 500 will need to rally 82 points in a day and one hald to close above the midpoint.
Yesterday, I mentioned "that we were looking for the resistance area from last week's weekly price bar, which is in the 2,662 to 2,665 area. And if that level did not hold, look for the 2,680.84 area."
As it turned out, the high for the day was 2,674.98. From there, the market dropped to a low of 2,596.12. Or a move of 78.86 points.
This move had the affect of seeing the SPY 267.50 put go from a low of $1.76 to a high of $6.68.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 8 points to the upside. Resistance from yesterday's daily price is in the 2,635 to 2,640 area.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19 **
Minor level: 14.06
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 10.94
The VIX closed at 22.50 yesterday. The 25 level should still be resistance. Also, the upper band on the daily chart is 23.27. This should be resistance, but if the VIX gets through it, look for a move higher.
18.75 should offer support.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75 **
Minor level: 2,597.65
Major level: 2,578.10
Minor level: 2,558.58
Minor level: 2,519.53
Major level: 2,500.00
Support should be at 2,602.50. And resistance should be at 2,675. A close today under 2,636.75 would indicate a move down to 2,579.10.
Also, watch the 2,627 level today.
QQQ:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06 **
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
The QQQ closed at 159.08. 159.38 should offer minor support. But a close today under 159.38 and the QQQ should drop to 150.
165.63 should continue to offer resistance. Yesterday's high was 3 cents under the level.
IWM:
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13 <
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.66
Major level: 146.88
The IWM closed at 150.36, just 36 cents above the major 150.00 level. I am still looking for support at 150.
153.13 should offer resistance.
TLT:
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31 <
Minor level: 119.92 **
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
The TLT closed at 120.99. A close today above 120.70 and the TLT should test 121.88.
120.31 should offer support.
GLD:
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78 **
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.87
The GLD closed at 127.49. 126.56 should be minor support. A retest of 128 could possible.
XLE:
Minor level: 76.95
Major level: 76.56
Minor level: 76.17
Minor level: 75.39
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41 **
Major level: 65.63
The XLE closed at 67.33. A close today under 67.97 and the XLE should retest the 65.63 level again.
67.19 should also continue to offer support. The 60 minute chart was moved into an uptrend.
FXY:
Major level: 92.19
Minor level: 92.00
Minor level: 91.61 **
Major level: 91.41 <
Minor level: 91.22
Minor level: 90.83
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Minor level: 88.09
The FXY dropped and closed at 90.87. The FXY dropped back under the upper band. The upper band is 91.12. Watch the 91.22 level. A close today under 91.22 and the FXY should test 89.
Support should still be at 90.63.
AAPL:
Minor level: 178.91 <
Major level: 178.13
Minor level: 177.35
Minor level: 175.78
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Apple closed at 168.34. Yesterday's high was 175.15, just 15 cents above the 175 level, which we were looking at for resistance.
165.63 should be support. And look for resistance in the 171 area.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: BURL, KSU, HLF, MPC, FSLR, APC, CLR, COP, HFC, DK, WPM, WLL, DO, CROX
Bearish Stocks: TSLA, COO, ADS, WHR, CB, CLX, ZBH, KMB, DIS, ALB, CELG, WBA, LAMR, CVS, CERN, PZZA, WAGE
Be sure to check earnings release dates.