7While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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Today of course closes out the first quarter of 2020. And it is on track to be the worst first quarter performance, since 1987, I believe.
As of yesterday, the March monthly price bar is down 11.09% for the S & P 500.
The midpoint of the monthly price bar through yesterday is 2,664.29.
And yesterday closed out at 2,626.65 or about 40 points below the midpoint. A close above the midpoint would be a bit more bullish than a close under it.
So, watch this level today on a rally to see if it can hold.
Yesterday did close out 85.18 points higher. This almsot reversed completely the loss from Friday.
The range for the day was 86.52 points. This was about 60% of the daily average true range.
And the market managed to hold above the lower band on the daily chart for the second day.
But, at this point, for this rally to gain some traction, I would want to see a close above 2,633.89. And a close above 2,637.01, which is the high from the last pivot high, would also suggest the market will continue higher.
Watch these levels today on a bounce.
On the downside, support from yesterday's daily price bar should be in the 2,588 to 2,393 area.
The 60 minute chart remains bearish. And the midband on the 60 minute chart is 2,917.69.
The midband should be the objective and resistance.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 30 points lower. This would suggest an open around 2,596. Watch the daily support levels to see if they offer support.
Tomorrow is our regular webinar. If there are any specific questions or charts you would like me to discuss, please email me directly at DavisMDT@gmail.com and I will be happy to add them to the presentation.
I will try and make some sense out of these hectic times.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 40.62
Minor level: 39.84 **
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.16
Major level: 34.38
Minor level: 33.60
Minor level: 32.03
The VIX closed at 57.08. The VIX closed 8.46 points lower. The VIX was down 12.91% for the day.
Even with this sell-off, the VIX is still trading above its upper band on the daily chart. That level is 52.17.
This demonstrates that the markets are still abnormal.
A bounce in the VIX up the 62 area is possible. But, that level should be resistance.
Technical resistance is around 62. And support is at 53.
S & P 500:
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,929.75
Minor level: 2,851.65
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,773.45
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30 <
Minor level: 2,617.25
Minor level: 2,539.06 **
Major level: 2,500.00
Minor level: 2,460.95
Minor level: 2,382.85
Major level: 2,304.75
Minor level: 2,226.65
The S & P closed at 2,626.65. The major 2,656 level should still be the objective.
Support should be at 2,617.25.
And the 2,500 level should offer support.
2,590 should provide technical support.
QQQ:
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19 **
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50 <
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81
Major level: 181.25
The QQQ closed at 192.04. At this point, support should be at the 189.06 level and the major 187.50 level.
Technical support is around 185.
And support from yesterday's daily bar is in the 189 area.
IWM:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 <
Minor level: 148.44 **
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
The IWM closed at 115.04.
Still trading below the lower band on the daily chart, which is now 120.37. This level should be resistance, until the IWM can close above it. The IWM is getting close to the lower band.
The 113.50 area should provide technical support.
TLT:
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.48
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.66
Major level: 146.88
Minor level: 146.10
The TLT closed at 166.32. The TLT closed above the upper band on the daily chart, which is 163.73.
Watch the upper band for support. And watch this level again today.
Resistance should be around 172. And support at 164.
GLD:
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35 **
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
Minor level: 147.67
Major level: 146.89
Minor level: 146.11
The GLD closed at 152.92.
Watch the major 153.13 level today. It needs to clear this level to head higher.
The 152 area should now be support. And 154 should be resistance.
XLE:
Major level: 56.25
Minor level: 55.47
Minor level: 53.90
Major level: 53.12
Minor level: 52.34
Minor level: 50.78
Major level: 50.00
Minor level: 49.22
Minor level: 47.65
Major level: 46.88
Minor level: 46.09 **
Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75
The XLE closed at 28.62. Still about $7 under the lower band. The lower band on the daily chart is now 35.03.
The 27 area should now be technical support.
AAPL:
Major level: 325.00
Minor level: 321.88
Minor level: 315.63
Major level: 312.50
Minor level: 309.38
Minor level: 303.13
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88 **
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50 <
Minor level: 284.38
Minor level: 278.13
Major level: 275.00
Minor level: 271.88
Apple closed at 254.81. Apple closed $7.07 higher yesterday.
Apple is still in an uptrend on its daily chart. It is above the midband, which is 237.15. This should now be support until it is violated.
The 245 area should be technical support. Looking for a move up to 282.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: TLT, TDOC, CTXS, QDEL, ONGM
Bearish Stocks: KEYS, WCN, LGND, CHD, MMS, DDS, WWE, ASGN, DRQ, ARCH, ALTR
