While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
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DUST Long $4.50
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SNAP Long at $14.54
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RRC Long at $11.85
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RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $0.46
FEYE Long at $17.18
FEYE Short March 8th-$17.50 Call @ $0.30
FCX Long at $12.74
FCX Short March 15th - $13 Call @ $0.24
TSLA Long March 15th - $280 Call @ $5.70
TSLA Short March 15th - $287.50 Call @ $2.70
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We did anticipate a range expansion for the market after the inside day contraction on Tuesday.
The high for the day was 2,790.27 which was right in the middle of the resistance level I mentioned yesterday.
In fact, I wrote this ... "So, for today, the key levels to watch are the 2,789 to 2,792 area."
And the market fully complied with our expectation.
So, for the day, the S & P 500 closed at 2,771.45, down 18.20 points on the day.
For the day, it closed at 13% of the range of the daily bar. And the down to up volume picked up significantly. For the day, it read 6.08 and the prior two days averaged 1.34.
The only bullish reading from yesterday was that the range for the day was 21.58 points, which was less than the average true range of 25.90 points.
So, what does this all tell us?
First, it does tell us that the selling pressure was not that great. We can deduce this from the simple fact that the range for the day was less than the average range.
Second, with a close percentage of 13%, it puts the odds of violating yesterday's low of 2,768.69 before the high of 2,790.27 at about 93%.
And the short term charts still remain bullish.
So, for today, I would expect a break of yesterday's low before it finds support.
Resistance from yesterday's daily bar is in the 2,779 to 2,780 area.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 2 points higher. Watch for the price rotation I described above.
Earnings do continue this week.
This afternoon, we will get earnings from COST, WDAY, and EBIX.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
The VIX closed out at 15.66 yesterday. This was the first close above the major 15.63 level.
Minor resistance should be at 16.02 and 16.41. To move higher, the VIX will need two closes above 16.41. But it is still resistance at this point.
15.23 is a minor support level.
SPX:
Major level: 2,890.60
Minor level: 2,871.08
Minor level: 2,832.03
Major level: 2,812.50 < Target Hit!
Minor level: 2,792.98 **
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
Yesterday, the S & P 500 managed to close just under the minor 2,773.40 level when it closed at 2,771.45.
Watch to see if the S & P 500 can reclaim this level. If it can't, I would expect a move down to 2,749.
Both the 30 minute and 60 minute charts remain in uptrends which do suggest that buying against support is still the viable strategy.
And I'm still looking for support to come in.
I mentioned how the market had rallied to the midband on the 10 minute chart after falling just under it on Monday.
The rally came right to the midband (hey, there's that pattern again) and failed.
The midband is now 2,789.60.
After reversing at the midband, the S & P 500 dropped to just above the lower band which is 2,766.11. If this level can hold as support, I would expect the market to bounce.
QQQ:
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56 **
Major level: 175.00 < Hit!!!
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
The QQQ closed at 173.56 yesterday. The QQQ broke under the major 175 level but still managed to close above the minor 173.44 level.
Yesterday's low was just below the minor 173.44 support level. If the QQQ breaks under this level, I would expect a drop to 171.88.
Like the S & P 500, both the 30 & 60 minute charts remain firmly bullish.
172 should be technical support for the QQQ.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
The IWM closed at 153.02. It broke and closed under the midband on its daily chart. That level is 156.39 and should now be resistance.
Looking like the weakest of all the major markets.
I do not expect the IWM to break under 151.56. If it does, it would tell us it should head lower.
Both the 30 and 60 minute charts remain strongly bullish.
TLT:
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31 <
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 118.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63
The TLT closed at 120.28. The next level to watch is 117.58. Two closes under 117.58 and the TLT should drop to 117.19. And two closed above 120.70 and the TLT should test 121.88.
Watch to see if the TLT can take out 120.31. If it can, I would expect the TLT to continue higher.
GLD:
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.10
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
The GLD closed at 121.61. It closed just under the major 121.88 level again. It will have to close above 121.88 to move higher.
The GLD is trying to gain some footing here. However, if it breaks under 120.31, it should head lower.
The midband is 119.70 and I would expect it to act as support.
XLE:
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63 <
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28
Major level: 62.50
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
The XLE closed at 65.51. It is now back under the major 65.63 level.
65.23 should be minor support. And a break under this level and the XLE should head lower.
And technical support is around 64.
FXY:
Major level: 89.84
Minor level: 89.65
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Major level: 87.50
Major level: 86.72
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36 ***
Major level: 85.16
Minor level: 84.97
The FXY closed at 85.34. Climax volume came into the FXY which is confirming the bounce we have been looking for.
It still needs two closes above 85.36 to move up to 85.94.
But it is oversold short term, so a bounce would be unusual.
85.16 is a minor support level and a bounce could happen.
AAPL:
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 184.38
Minor level: 178.13
Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 159.38
Minor level: 153.13
Major level: 150.00
Predicted High: 176.53
Predicted Low: 172.51
Apple closed at 174.52 yesterday. 175 should be resistance now.
The minor 174.22 is the key level on the downside. If Apple breaks under this level, I would expect a drop to 171 to 172.
The 60 minute chart remains bullish.
176.56 should offer some resistance.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: CMG, BA, ULTA, MA, COST, SHOP, CRM, OLED, HON, UHS, ALXN, DG, MSFT, DG, AXP, PYPL, NKE
Bearish Stocks: NTES, STMP, WLK, GDOT, AN, MD, TWTR, LOGM, EZA
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
