While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
UNIT Long at $17.00
Premium Collected - $0.35
SNAP Long at $14.54
Premium Collected - $0.65
Short - May 4th - $14.50 call @ $1.00
TEVA Long $18.06
Premium collected - $1.10
Short May 4th - $18.50 calls @ $0.75
KMI Long September $16 call @ $1.00
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If you followed the alerts from yesterday, you would have added two short call positions. Both expire this Friday. They are the short $14.50 call on SNAP and the short $18.50 call on TEVA.
Yesterday closed out the month of April 2018. The month ended up closing about 7 points to the upside and above the midpoint. The bull trend continues, but the conviction was not as strong as I would have expected. But, the S & P still managed to close above the upper band, which now reads 2,575.13.
For the day, the S & P 500 21.86 points to the downside. It closed at 2,648.05. And the range for the day was just under 35 points. With an average true range of 38.80 points, the daily range was almost the average true range.
But, we were looking for an expansion based on the contraction from Friday.
With yesterday's close at 2,648.05, the S & P 500 is sitting right at the support level from last week's weekly price bar. Also, there is a support level at 2,641 from last week's price bar.
With a close at the low of yesterday's daily price bar, I would expect a violation of the low before the high.
Then the key for today will be to see if the weekly support levels hold.
I mentioned how the S & P 500 is trading right around the midband on the 60 minute chart. And that the market will have to clear that level to move higher.
The midband is 2,676.43 and yesterday's high was 2,682.92. So, the market got slightly above the midband, but failed to hold it.
The short term charts for the VIX remain bearish, so I still expect a reversal to downside on the VIX. When this happens, the market should bottom and head higher.
Apple reports this afternoon after the close.
Earnings continue this week. And Friday we will get the non farm payroll at 8:30AM EST.
Continue to monitor the longer term levels for the market.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19 **
Minor level: 14.06
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 10.94
The VIX closed at 15.93. It closed above the minor 15.63 level.
Resistance should be at 16.41. If the VIX takes out the 16.41 level, I would still expect resistance at 18.75.
Also, resistance on the VIX is right at the midband on the 60 minute chart, which happens to be 18.63.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83 **
Major level: 2,656.30 <
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
Major level: 2,578.10
Minor level: 2,558.58
The S & P 500 broke under the major 2,656.30 level, so it should now be resistance. There is a minor support level right at 2,641.60, which is very close to the weekly price bar support level.
Also, 2,653.80 should also be a level to watch.
QQQ:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 171.88
Minor level: 165.63
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 159.38 **
Minor level: 153.13
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 146.88
Minor level: 140.63
Major level: 137.50
The QQQ closed at 160.94. The QQQ will need two closes above 165.63 to move higher. And it will need two closes under 159.38 to move lower.
The QQQ closed right on the minor support level at 160.94. A break under that level and the QQQ should head lower.
IWM:
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91 **
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
The IWM closed at 153.32. 153.13 should be a support level. And I would not expect the IWM to break under 151.56.
Oversold and I expect a bounce.
TLT:
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14 **
Major level: 118.75 <
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63
The TLT closed at 119.10. 118.75 should offer support. However, to move higher, the TLT would need two closes above 119.14.
Minor resistance is at 119.53.
GLD:
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78 **
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.61
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44
The GLD closed at 124.59, closing 2 cents under the minor 124.61 level. This now implies that if the GLD closes under 124.62, it should drop to 123.44.
Resistance should now be at 125.
The 30 minute chart is already bearish and the 60 minute chart just crossed into a downtrend.
XLE:
Minor level: 76.95
Major level: 76.56
Minor level: 76.17
Minor level: 75.39
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66 **
Major level: 71.88 <
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
The XLE closed at 73.81. The target should still be up to the 75 level.
If the XLE can clear 75, it tells us it should continue higher. 73.83 is minor support. And minor support is at 73.44.
FXY:
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Minor level: 88.09
Minor level: 87.70
Major level: 87.50 <
Minor level: 87.31
Minor level: 86.92
Major level: 86.72
The FXY continues to move closer to the major 87.50 level. Yesterday, the FXY closed at 87.65. I am looking for a bounce here.
If it breaks under 87.50, look for the FXY to continue lower. I would expect a bounce to move higher than the 89.06 level.
AAPL:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 160.94 **
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Apple closed at 165.26. 162.50 should be support. And a close today above 164.06 and Apple should test 168.75.
They do report this afternoon after the close.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: BA, HUM, FDX, STZ, AET, COST, AET, RHT, FFIV, CVX, EOG, VLO, CTXS, EXP, MSFT, AZPN, WMT, MPC, CFC, FSLR, MLNX, ESRX, NKE
Bearish Stocks: NTES, AVGO, EA, VMC, DIS, CHKP, OLED, SWKS, QRVO, IRBT, INCY, LUV, CLVS, CRUS
Be sure to check earnings release dates.