While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
DYN Long at $12.55
Premium Collected $0.48
COWN - Long at $14.95
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The S & P 500 closed yesterday at 2,402.32.? It hit a high of 2,404.05, within 2.50 points of the objective I have been calling for.
Pre market, the futures are trading to the upside 1.75 points as I write this.
Do you think our objective will be hit? I have no doubt.
The question is what will happen next?
Usually the next upside confirming level acts as resistance when a major level is violated.? The next level to watch for a possible reversal would be 2,414.10.
Assuming the S & P 500 breaks through 2,406.30,? I would be looking for 2,414.10 as a level where a possible reversal could occur.
The next major level above 2,406.30 is 2,437.50.? This would be a level that I feel should offer major resistance.? I would NOT expect the market to break through 2,437.50 on its first attempt.
If the S & P 500 has the strength to do that on its first attempt, it would tell us this market is destined to go higher.
The other scenario to be mindful of is that if the S & P 500 closes above 2,406.30 for two days, it would mean that the major objective for the market becomes 2,500.
In the event his happens, then 2,375 becomes major support.? It could drop down to 2,343 and I would expect major support at that level as well.
Having said that, I do feel that we may say a pullback around 2,438.? And we know to watch the 2,414 level.
The support area from last week's weekly price bar should be in the 2,393 to 2,395 area.? And with yesterday's low at 2,393.94, the area has been tested and held.? It should continue to offer support this week.
As for the VIX at all time lows, we need to be aware that it continues to fail to confirm to the upside.? As long as this continues, trading to longside will continue to be the way to go.
As you can see, the 10.55 level is the key level at the moment.? If seems that when the VIX can close above that level, the day day it reverses and closes under it.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 14.45
Major level: 14.06
Minor level: 13.67
Minor level: 12.89
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 12.11
Minor level: 11.33
Major level: 10.94 <
Minor level: 10.55 <
Minor level:? 9.77
Major level:? 9.38 Strong level
The VIX would need to close above 10.94 to make any significant push to the upside.? But, 12.50 should be strong resistance.
10.55 should be short term resistance.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,437.50 <<<
Minor level: 2,429.70
Minor level: 2,414.10
Major level: 2,406.30 <
Minor level: 2,398.48 **
Minor level: 2,382.82
Major level: 2,375.00
Minor level: 2,367.20
Objective is still to 2,406.30. ?
Lower levels should continue to act as support.? 2,394 and 2,398 should be minor support.
The S & P 500 closed at 2,402.32, two cents above the 2,402.30 is a minor resistance level I mentioned yesterday.
QQQ: ?
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.97
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28 **
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
The QQQ did clear 138.67 yesterday, closing at 139.04. This puts the 140.63 objective within reach.
138.67 and 138.87 should be minor support.? The bulls remain in control.
IWM:
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28 ***
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
The IWM closed above 138.38. With a close above 138.38 today, it should make a run up to 140.63.
137.89 should be minor support. 139.06 should be minor resistance.
TLT: ?
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.09 **
Minor level: 119.53 <
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.96 ?
I would expect strong resistance at 121.88.? If 121.88 is violated, then 125 should be strong resistance.
Short term charts are in downtrends, so expect a rally to fail.
GLD: ?
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 120.32
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.97
Minor level: 116.41 **
Major level: 115.63 <
Minor level: 114.85 **
Minor level: 113.28
Major level: 112.50
117.97 should be resistance.? A retest of 118.75 should be the next minor move, but 117.97 could offer strong resistance.
Both the short term 30 minute and 60 minute charts are in downtrends.? Any rally should be short lived.
XLE:
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 67.97 **
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63
The XLE hit the 68.75 level.? At this point, the XLE is oversold.? It would nned to break through 68.75 and hit 70.31 for me to be convinced that the downtrend is over.
On the downside, 65.63 should be strong support.? I would not expect the XLE to break under that level.? If it does, expect the XLE to head much lower.
The $55 level on spot price is still strong resistance.
FXY:
Major level: 87.50
Minor level: 87.11
Minor level: 86.33
Major level: 85.94 ?
Minor level: 85.55
Minor level: 84.77 ***
Major level: 84.38 <
Minor level: 83.60
Minor level: 83.20
Major level: 82.81
The FXY could not close above 84.77 for second day.? Watch to see if 83.60 offers support. ?
84.72 should be minor resistance.? And 84.57 should be minor support.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 162.50, 156.25, 150, 143.75, and 137.50
Apple appears to be stalling at the 156.25 level.? 150 should be major support.
154.69 should offer support.? And 159.38 could be minor resistance.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, REGN, TSLA, ULTA, AVGO, HUM, BIDU, ANTM, NFLX, CMI, BABA, ADSK, SWKS, V, IRBT
Bearish Stocks: SPG, SJM, CLB, CCI, VRSK, ETR, CL, ESRX, GIS, VFC
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
