While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $2.10
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.80
CLW Long May - $20.00 call for $2.00
AMC Long at $16.16
Total Premium Collected $0.35
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We do have one position that expires today and that is the long call on CLW. Unfortunately, CLW has consolidated a lot longer than I anticipated.
Because the initial position was placed with a debit spread, the loss on the $20 calls are reduced a bit and less than 1% of the nominal portfolio.
The S & P 500 continued to follow through from strong day on Wednesday.
For the day, the S & P 500 managed to close 25.43 higher. The day closed out at 2,876.39.
This puts the S & P 500 within 15 points of the objective we are looking for. As a reminder, the upside target is to 2,890.60.
The daily range was 35.35 points which was almost exactly the average daily true range.
The day ended up closing at 57% of the daily range which still gives a bullish bias for today.
The support area from yesterday's daily bar is in the 2,866 to 2,874 area.
If we look at how this week's weekly bar is setting up, we see that the high is 2,892.15 and the low is 2,801.43.
The midpoint is 2,846.79. And the range for the week so far is 90.72. The weekly average true range is 74.86 points, so it is highly likely that the high and low for the week are in.
The question will be if the weekly bar can close above its midpoint which is 2,846.79. And yesterday's close was 2,876.39. so the market is still about 30 points above it.
Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 12 points lower.
This should not be unexpected as the market hit the target we were looking for.
The active objective was to the 2,890.60 line and yesterday's high came in at 2,892.15.
So, since finding support at the 2,812.50 level, the S & P 500 has moved up one level. And the market has made this move in 4 days.
At this point, the minor 2,871.08 should be support. And based on the pre market trading, the S & P 500 should open about 6 points below the minor level. Watch to see if the S & P 500 can reclaim this level.
There is also technical support around 2,853.
I do want to point out that the midband on the 60 minute chart for the S & P 500 was 2,888.86 and that is where the market stalled.
So, once again the bands gave us a price objective and an expectation of what the market should do when it got there.
The final comment for today is simply this. As you know, I have been monitoring the potential bullish crossover on the daily chart. And yesterday it happened.
The 200 ema is now 2,773.37 and the 253-day average is 2,773.10.
This now sets up a number of different probabilities for the market. The first of course is that the S & P 500 is now in an uptrend on its daily chart, which puts it back in alignment with the weekly and monthly chart.
I will continue to share the price expectations in the future based on the uptrend.
Pre open, BIDU is down about 11% after reporting. And NVDA is relatively flat after reporting.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88 <
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41 **
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 11.72
The VIX closed at 15.34. It gave back another 6.89% yesterday. It closed 1.10 points lower.
The VIX took out the 15.63 level.
Since peaking at 23.38 on May 9th, the VIX has now dropped back under the major 15.63 level. The high was almost exactly on a minor resistance line, which is 23.44.
At this point, 17.19 should be minor resistance. And 16.41 should also be resistance.
SPX:
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,949.25
Minor level: 2,910.15
Major level: 2,890.60 < Hit
Minor level: 2,871.08 **
Minor level: 2,832.03
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Now that 2,890.60 has been hit, we do expect support at 2,871.08.
Minor support is at 2,856.40. There is also minor support at 2,858.90. So watch this area today.
The short term 10 minute chart is bullish and the midband is 2,853. This could also offer support.
QQQ:
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81 **
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
The QQQ closed at 184.93. The target should be up to the 187.50 level.
182.81 should be minor support.
182.80 should offer technical support. And 181.25 should be major support.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69 **
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
The IWM closed at 155. The IWM hit the midband on the daily chart. The midband is now 156.44 and the high yesterday was 156.18.
I am looking for a retest of 156.25 at this point. The key will be if the IWM can clear it.
150 should offer major support, which is right at the 150 technical support level.
TLT:
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17 **
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.61
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
The TLT closed out at 125.71. Next objective is to 126.56. If it clears this level, a run to 128.13 is possible. Watch to see if 125.39 holds as support.
And 125 should be major support.
Short term charts still remain strongly bullish.
GLD:
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66 **
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31<
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75 <
The GLD closed at 121.51. The GLD will still need two closes above 122.66 to test 125.
Watch the minor 121.49 level at this point.
120.31 should be support.
XLE:
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28 **
Major level: 62.50 <
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
The XLE closed at 64.40. The objective for the XLE should still be up to 65.63.
Clearing 65.63 should be extremely bullish.
64.06 is minor support. 63.72 is technical support.
AAPL:
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 210.94
Minor level: 207.81
Major level: 206.25
Minor level: 204.69
Minor level: 201.56
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 198.44
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75 <
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06 **
Major level: 187.50
Apple closed at 190.08. At this point, the target for Apple should be to 193.75.
187.50 is major support. Apple is holding right at the midband on the daily chart, which is 189.91.
If Apple can hold above the midband, I will look for an entry to go long.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: NOW, FLT, LLL, WDAY, MCD, HRS, MKC, SAFM, WIX, TEAM, DRI, AWK, OLLI, ZEN, ROKU, PAYX, MNST,
Bearish Stocks: GOOGL, ILMN, GWW, TSLA, AMGN, NVDA, FFIV, BIDU, CAT, UPS, CTXS, AMG, SLG, PSX, NTAP, SQ, R
Be sure to check earnings release dates.