While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $1.06
ET Long at $11.78
Premium Collected $0.35
ET Long at $7.50
Premium Collected $0.60
AGNC Long at $13.19
Premium Collected $1.45
MFA Long at $4.20
Premium Collected $0.40
HOG Long at $21.70
Short May 8th - $22 call at $0.45
IQ Long at $17.44
Premium collected - $0.25
IQ May 15th - $18 call at $0.25
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It appeared that the $18 call on IQ would be exercised Friday as the stock traded above the short strike. Just into the close, the stock pulled back to close at 17.95, so the calls should not have been assigned.
This allows you to keep the stock and the book the profit on the premium you collected. Look for an alert today on this position.
Friday, the S & P 500 closed 11.20 points higher. The day closed out at 2,863.70.
The low for the day ended up at 2,816.78.
I mentioned Friday morning what the support area from Thursday's daily bar should be. In fact, this is what I wrote: "The support level from yesterday's daily bar should be in the 2,810 to 2,823 area."
I bring this up because the midpoint of this large range just happens to be 2,816.62. This came within 16 cents of the actual low.
Once again, this 50% level holds merit for the market. As I have mentioned in the past, markets tend to correct the 50% level.
And Friday, I wrote that the 50% level of the weekly price bar through Thursday was 2,856.
I mentioned this because a close above the midpoint would be bullish. And a close below it would be bearish. And I felt this level would be tested. And it was.
As it turned out, the S & P closed just above it and Friday's daily bar closed at 97% of the range for the day.
This does imply that yesterday's high should be violated before the low. The high for the day was 2,865.01.
And the support area from Friday's daily bar is in the 2,841 to 2,847 area.
Support from last week's weekly price bar is in the 2,856 area.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 69 points higher. This projects to an open around 2,932 or about 67 points above Friday's high. So, the close projection will be satisfied right at the open.
The projected open would also put the market about 2 points below the 61.8% retracement level, which is 2,934.49. Watch to see if the market can clear this level.
If it can, it would then be support. And then the logical move would be to the midband, which is 2,982.
Earnings do continue this week. The major reports will come from WMT and HD tomorrow. And Wednesday, we hear from TGT.
The week ends with NVDA, PANW, and SPLK reporting on Thursday.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 39.84
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.16
Major level: 34.38
Minor level: 33.60
Minor level: 32.03
Major level: 31.25 <
Minor level: 30.47
Minor level: 28.91
Major level: 28.13
Minor level: 27.35
Minor level: 25.78
Major level: 25.00
The VIX closed at 31.89. The VIX dropped 2.21% yesterday.
The VIX did drop to the major 31.25 level as expected. The low on Friday was 31.04.
At this point, 32.03 should be resistance. And the next level on the downside should be 30.47.
The 31.50 area is a technical support level. Assuming the VIX opens under it, it should then be resistance.
S & P 500:
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80 <
Minor level: 2,929.75
Minor level: 2,851.65 **
Major level: 2,812.50 <
Minor level: 2,773.45 **
Minor level: 2,695.35
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,617.25
Minor level: 2,539.06
Major level: 2,500.00
The S & P closed at 2,863.70. The S & P dropped to a low of 2,816.78 or about 4 points above the major 2,812.50 level, which suggested should be support.
The market should open just above the minor 2,929.75 level. Watch how the market reacts around this level.
And at this point, the minor 2,851.65 level should be support.
Technical support is around 2,875.
QQQ:
Major level: 231.22
Minor level: 229.66
Minor level: 226.56
Major level: 225.00
Minor level: 223.42
Minor level: 220.31 **
Major level: 218.75 <
Minor level: 217.19
Minor level: 214.06
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 210.93
Minor level: 207.81
Major level: 206.25
Minor level: 204.69
Minor level: 201.56
The QQQ closed at 223.27. The QQQ closed 1.44 points higher.
A close today above 220.31 and the QQQ should test 225.
218.75 should be support. And support should also be at the minor 220.31 level.
Technical support as around 222.
IWM:
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.19
Minor level: 139.06
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.94
Minor level: 132.81
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 129.69 **
Minor level: 126.56
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 123.44
Minor level: 120.31
Major level: 118.75
The IWM closed at 125.08. The IWM managed to rally and close just above the major 125 level.
Watch the minor 126.56 level. Two closes above this level, the IWM should test 131.25.
Technical support is around 125.
TLT:
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.97 **
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.48
The TLT closed at 166.71. Watch the minor 167.97 level today. If the TLT cannot clear this level, it should drop to test 165.
The 165 area should be technical resistance. And the 169 area should be resistance.
GLD:
Major level: 165.63
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91
Major level: 153.13
The GLD closed at 163.93. The next minor level on the upside is 163.28. And on the downside, the level is 161.72. The GLD still needs to close above 163.28 today to move up to 165.63.
Technical resistance is around 165.
The 162 area is technical support.
XLE:
Minor level: 47.65
Major level: 46.88
Minor level: 46.09
Minor level: 44.53
Major level: 43.75
Minor level: 42.97
Minor level: 41.41
Major level: 40.63
Minor level: 39.83
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50 <
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.15 **
Major level: 34.27
The XLE closed at 35.99. Watch the minor 35.15 level. A close today above it and the XLE should test 37.50.
Technical support should be around 35. And resistance at the 40 level.
AAPL:
Major level: 325.00
Minor level: 321.88
Minor level: 315.63 **
Major level: 312.50 <
Minor level: 309.38 **
Minor level: 303.13
Major level: 300.00
Minor level: 296.88
Minor level: 290.63
Major level: 287.50
Minor level: 284.38
Minor level: 278.13
Major level: 275.00
Apple closed at 307.71. Watch the 309.38 level again. If Apple cannot clear this level, it could test 300.
But, the major 300 level should be support. And the 303 level should be support as well.
Apple needs to clear minor resistance at 309 to head higher.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: SHOP, REGN, NFLX, DPZ, HUM, NVDA, VRTX, RNG, LULU, WST, COUP, ZM, KLAC, SMG, BAND, MRNA, CHGG, AZN
Bearish Stocks: PSA, HSY, CAT, FDX, CB, AIZ, UPS, EXR, NTRS, ED
