The market ran to as high as 2,060.61 yesterday before the release of the Fed minutes and promptly sold off on the news that a rate hike maybe forthcoming in June.
It stopped at 2,034 before rallying back to close at 2,047.63.
You may recognize that the key level we have been watching is 2,046.88 and the S & P 500 managed to rally back and close above it ... yet again.
This is now the third day in four days that 2,046.88 has been challenged, with one day closing under the level.
The VIX did manage to close above 15.63 yesterday, when it closed for the day at 15.95.
Quite frankly, the fact that the S & P could not close under 2,046.88, still gives the edge to a bullish bias.
Of course, the bullish bias will be negated if the S & P 500 does close under 2,046.88.
With the prospects of a rate hike forthcoming, the TLT and the metals sold off hard yesterday.? The TLT was down 1.42% and the GDX was down 7.9%
I have been looking for a potential top in the metals around June 1st, and this action sets up a scenario where that maybe likely.? I would expect one more rally in the metals and depending upon where it fails, it should set up a pullback.
Yesterday, I mentioned how you should be watching the 15.63 level on the VIX.
If you follow the markets intra day, then you no doubt noticed how the VIX traded around that level all day.? You probably also saw how the VIX stalled on the day at 16.47, just 6 cents above the previously identified 16.41 resistance level.
Here are the key levels for the markets.
VIX:
Major level - 25.00
Minor level - 23.44
Minor level - 20.31
Major level - 18.75
Minor level - 17.19 *
Minor level - 15.63 *
Minor level - 14.06 *
Major level - 12.50
The objective should be to 18.75 for the VIX, however, I would expect a pullback before it makes that run.
Minor levels should be at 17.97, 16.41, and 14.84.
S & P 500 Cash Index:?
Major level - 2,125.00
Minor level - 2,109.38
Minor level - 2,078.12
Major level - 2,062.50 *
Minor level - 2,046.88 *
Minor level - 2,015.62
Major level - 2,000.00
The 2,046.88 level continues to be a key level for the S & P 500.? If the market closes under that level for two days, you can expect a move down to 2,000.
Minor support is at 2,031.30.??
2,062.50 should be a key level.? If the S & P can reclaim that level, it will be bullish.
Nasd 100 (QQQ):?
Major level - 112.50
Minor level - 111.71
Minor level - 110.16
Major level - 109.38
Minor level - 108.60
Minor level - 107.03 *
Major level - 106.25
Minor level - 105.46 *
Minor level - 103.91
Major level - 103.13
The QQQ closed yesterday exactly on the 105.86 minor support level.
105.86 is a key short term level for the QQQ because if it closes under it, I would expect a move down to 104.70.
Minor levels are 105.47 and 105.08.
TLT:?
Major level - 132.81
Minor level - 132.42
Minor level - 132.03
Major level - 131.25
Minor level - 130.46
Minor level - 128.91 *
Major level - 128.13
The TLT stopped yesterday at 128.91, which should be a support level.
A break under that level and expect a retest of 128.13.
GLD:
Major level - 125.00
Minor level - 124.22
Minor level - 122.66
Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 121.10 *
Minor level - 119.53
Major level - 118.75 *
Minor level - 117.96
The GLD closed at 120.10 yesterday.? A close today under 121.10 and it should drop to 118.75.
118.75 should be support.
XLE:
Minor level - 69.53
Major level - 68.75
Minor level - 67.96
Minor level - 66.41 *
Major level - 65.63 *
Minor level - 64.84
Minor level - 63.28
Major level - 62.50
The XLE closed at 65.76 yesterday, just 13 cents above the major 65.63 support level.
Minor support is at 65.23.? To move lower, the XLE will need two closes under 64.84.
Apple:
Major levels for Apple are 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
Minor support for Apple should be 93.75 and Apple closed just above it yesterday.
Starting to gain some bullish traction.? $100 should be major resistance.
Watch list:
Bullish Stocks: LLL, ZBH, CRL, ALB, WBMD, A, NVDA, CLR, SIMO
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Bearish Stocks: BIIB, GS, AMGN, FLT, ANTM, AET, CELG, CRI, YUM
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Be sure to check earnings release dates.
