While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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The month of May began with a modest 4.13 point gain for the S & P 500.? The market closed at 2,388.33.? It continues to hold support above the 2,382.82 level.
And the month began with the VIX dropping again. The VIX closed out yesterday at 10.18, down 5.91% for the day.? The VIX closed at 10.18, under the 10.55 level.
The implication for today is if the VIX does close under 10.55, the downside objective is to 9.38.
Last week, we had one day that closed under 10.55 and that was on Thursday.? The VIX recovered that level on Friday, so it still needs two closes under 10.55 for the target to be 9.38.
There is no doubt that the VIX is down to historic all time lows. But, that does not mean it cannot go lower. In fact, I am biased for further movement to the downside.
It seems that once again we are back to a situation where you do not want to short a quiet market after a rise.
Will the "Sell in May and go away" mantra hold true this year?
I don't know, but I do know this.? There will be some event that affects the markets to cause the VIX to pop.? Your call on this is as good as mine.
Support levels based on last week's weekly price bar, is in the 2,377.27 to 2,384 area.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 14.45
Major level: 14.06
Minor level: 13.67
Minor level: 12.89
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 12.11
Minor level: 11.33
Major level: 10.94 <
Minor level: 10.55 <
Minor level:? 9.77
Major level:? 9.38 Strong support
With a close yesterday under 10.55, a close today under that level confirms move down to 9.38.
11.94 should offer resistance.? Watch 10.16 for possible support.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,406.30 <
Minor level: 2,398.48 **
Minor level: 2,382.82
Major level: 2,375.00
Minor level: 2,367.20
Minor level: 2,351.60
Major level: 2,343.80
Minor level: 2,335.98
2,382.82 should continue to offer support.? 2,386.70 is a short term level to watch as well.? If the S & P 500 closes under 2,386.70, it could test 2,375.
QQQ: ?
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
Minor level: 133.60
Minor level: 132.03
Major level: 131.25
The QQQ came within 12 cents of the 137.50 objective.
136.72 should be minor support.? 136.33 should also be minor support.
Minor resistance is at 137.89.
IWM:
Minor level: 141.41 **
Major level: 140.63 <
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
The IWM closed at 139.85, just one penny above the 139.85 level.
139.06 should be support.
TLT: ?
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.09 **
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.96 ?
The TLT broke and closed at 121.08, just one cent under 121.09. The implication for today is that if the TLT closes under 121.09, the objective would be to 118.75.
121.48 is a minor resistance level and 120.70 should be minor support.
GLD: ?
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88 **
Minor level: 120.32 <
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.97
Minor level: 116.41
Major level: 115.63
The GLD had its first close under 120.32.? A close today under that level and the GLD should drop to 118.75.
120.32 should be resistance.? And 119.92 should also offer resistance.
XLE:
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97 <<
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63
A close under 67.97 today and the XLe should drop to 65.63.
67.97 should be minor resistance.? 67.38 could offer minor support.
FXY:
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.67
Minor level: 87.89
Major level: 87.50 **
Minor level: 87.11 <
Minor level: 86.33
Major level: 85.94? <
The FXY came within 20 cents of the 85.94 objective.? 86.23 should be short term resistance and 85.94 should be support.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 150, 143.75, 137.50, 131.25, and 125.
Apple continues to try and hold the 143.75 level.? Again.
Two closes above 145.31 and the target for Apple should be to 150.? Apple reports
Apple reports this afternoon after the close.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, GOOGL, GD, ANTM, COST, JAZZ, UNH, HON, MON, BABA, DLR, WDC, CRM, PNW, CAKE,
Bearish Stocks: SJM, CL, ESRX, MNST, OXY, HIBB, SBH, HLX
Be sure to check earnings release dates.