While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Total Premium Collected - $2.10
RRC Long at $11.85
Total Premium Collected $0.70
RRC Long at $9.20
RIG Long at $8.81
Premium Collected - $1.45
FEYE Long at $17.18
Total Premium Collected $0.80
AMC Long at $16.16
Total Premium Collected $0.35
.........................................................................................
Unfortunately, the CLW position expired on Friday. The loss was mitigated somewhat by initiating the position as a debit spread. The loss was less than 1% of the tracking portfolio. This shows why you do not want to overtrade these option recommendations.
Friday, the S & P 500 opened with a bearish gap of 17.72 points. The low of 2,854.23 before the market rallied 31.25 points into the high. The high was 2,885.48.
And the high came to within 5.12 points of the major 2,890.60 level.
After hitting the high, the market then proceeded to sell off the balance of the day. The market ended up closing only 5.30 points above the low.
The high for the day came in at 11:00 EST, which is typically a key intra day time.
As it turned out, Friday had a bullish swing of 31.25 and a bearish swing of almost 26 points.
The total range movement was 57.25 points, a rather impressive intra day range.
But for the day, the S & P 500 closed at 17% of the daily bar which is bearish. I pointed out Friday that the midpoint of the weekly bar through Thursday was 2,846.79.
And a close above, it would be bullish. As it turned out, the market managed to close the week almost 10 points above it.
The weekly bar ended up closing at 64% of the price bar. So the weekly price has a slight bullish bias and the Friday's daily bar is bearish.
This suggests that the week should open with a bearish bias, but find support and most likely rally after finding that support.
And pre open, this senario is holding true with the S & P 500 trading about 15 points to the downside.
The resistance level from Friday's daily bar is in the 2,859 to 2,870 area. And the resistance level from the weekly bar is in the 2,846 to 2,850 area.
The weekly chart for the S & P 500 is in an uptrend and the daily chart just recently crossed into an uptrend.
The 60 minute chart is bearish and the recent rally failed right at the midband on the 60 minute chart. That price level is now 2,890. And the lower band is 2,797. The selloff into the 13th stalled above the lower band on the 60 minute chart.
The shorter term 30 minute chart is bearish and with price trading under the lower band on the 13th, a retest is highly probable.
The lower band is 2,796 which is within one point of the lower band on the 60 minute chart.
This area should offer support.
Finally, I want to point out that the midband on the daily chart is 2,773 and now that the daily chart has crossed into an uptrend, it should offer support.
Earnings do continue this week. Both DECK and SPLK report Thursday after the close.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 21.88 <
Minor level: 21.10
Minor level: 19.53
Major level: 18.75
Minor level: 17.97
Minor level: 16.41 **
Major level: 15.63 <
Minor level: 14.85 **
Minor level: 13.28
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 11.72
The VIX closed at 16.10. It was up 81 cents on the day.
The VIX reclaimed the 15.63 level. At this point, the VIX will need two closes above 16.41 to move higher. 15.63 should offer support.
Technical resistance is at 17.60.
SPX:
Major level: 2,968.80
Minor level: 2,949.25
Minor level: 2,910.15
Major level: 2,890.60 < Hit
Minor level: 2,871.08 **
Minor level: 2,832.03
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Friday the S & P 500 closed under 2,871.08. This now suggests that if the S & P 500 closes under 2,871 today, it should drop to the 2,812.50 level.
2,832 is a minor support level. Watch to see how the marekt reacts at this level.
2,880.90 is minor resistance.
QQQ:
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81 **
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
The QQQ closed at 183.04. The QQQ will need two closes under 182.81 to head lower.
181.25 should be major support. Like the S & P 500, its 30 and 60 minute charts are bearish.
177 is the lower band on both timeframes and should offer support.
IWM:
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81 **
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 154.69 **
Minor level: 151.56
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 148.44
The IWM closed at 152.84. The IWM hit the midband on the daily chart. The midband is now 156.42 and the high yesterday was 155.27.
The midband should be resistance.
A close today under 154.69 and the IWM should drop to 150.
The 150 area should be strong support. 154.69 should be minor resistance.
TLT:
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.74
Minor level: 126.95
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17 **
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.61
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44
Minor level: 123.05
The TLT closed out at 125.99. Next objective is to 126.56. If it clears this level, a run to 128.13 is possible. Watch to see if 125.39 holds as support.
And 125 should be major support. And 125.78 is minor support.
Short term charts still remain strongly bullish.
GLD:
Major level: 126.56
Minor level: 126.17
Minor level: 125.39
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31< <
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
The GLD closed at 120.65. The GLD came within 2 cents of the 120.31 level.
120.31 should be support. The midband on the dialy chart is 118.92 and should offer support on a test.
XLE:
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63
Minor level: 64.85
Minor level: 63.28 **
Major level: 62.50 <
Minor level: 61.72
Minor level: 60.16
Major level: 59.38
The XLE closed at 63.75. A break under the minor 63.67 level and the XLE should test 62.50. 62.50 should be strong support.
64.45 should now be minor resistance, as well as 64.06. 63.72 is technical support.
AAPL:
Major level: 212.50
Minor level: 210.94
Minor level: 207.81
Major level: 206.25
Minor level: 204.69
Minor level: 201.56
Major level: 200.00
Minor level: 198.44
Minor level: 195.31
Major level: 193.75 <
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06 **
Major level: 187.50
Apple closed at 189. Apple is trading between the 200 ema and the midband. The 200 ema is 185.47 and the 253-day average is 189.93.
187.50 is major support. Apple is holding right at the midband on the daily chart which is 189.91.
At this point, you are better off waiting to see which way Apple breaks.
181.25 is the outer end of the support area. A break under this level and it should move lower.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: SHOP, NOW, FLT, LLL, CTAS, WDAY, APD, MCD, HUBS, GPN, CB, RCL, WP, AXP
Bearish Stocks: TSLA, GS, AAPL, FDX, GD, NVDA, LEA, SPOT, BIDU, EOG, BUD, LOGM, ALB, ALNY, GRUB, SHAK, CLB, OXY
Be sure to check earnings release dates.