While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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The S & P 500 gapped up and closed 20.04 points to the upside. For the day it closed at 2,733.01.
The intraday range was only 13.49 points. But, if you factor in the gap, the range was 26.22 points. This puts the range about 3 points under the average. Certainly not a huge expansion, but greater than Friday's range.
So, last week we had three consecutive closes above 2,714.88, and then Friday it closed under that level.
And now we have reclaimed that level, which would indicate strong support at 2,714.88.
You surely recognize that yesterday's close was just under the upside objective, which has been 2,734.40. And yesterday's high did not take out last week's high, which was 2,742.10.
Yesterday's high came to 2,739.19, or about three points shy of the weekly high.
Today, we will find out if we clear last week's high, and the 2,734.40 level. Pre open, the S & P 500 is trading about 5 points to the upside.
This implies an open above the 2,734.40 level and above last week's high. This would mean that we would expect support at both these levels.
If those levels don't hold, support from yesterday's daily bar is in the 2,729 to 2,732 area.
And the support area from last week's weekly price bar is still in the 2,722 to 2,723 area.
Bias to the upside continues with both the 30 minute and 60 minute charts in uptrending formations.
Wednesday we will get the FOMC meeting minutes at 2:00. And earnings continue this week. But, the numbers of companies reporting are slowing down.
Continue to monitor the longer term levels for the market.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06 **
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 10.94
The VIX closed at 13.10. The low for the day was within 28 cents of the major 12.50 level, which has been our objective.
I do expect a retest of the 12.50 level.
If the VIX opens under the 13.67 line, I would expect still expect resistance at that level. And the minor 13.28 should also offer resistance.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40 <
Minor level: 2,714.88 **
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
Major level: 2,578.10
Minor level: 2,558.58
Watch how the S & P 500 reacts around the 2,734.40 level. If it can get above it, I would expect support at that level.
And 2,729.50 should still offer minor support. If that cannot hold, I would expect 2,723.40 to hold.
Short term charts remain bullish, so buying against support is still the most viable strategy.
QQQ:
Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 171.88
Minor level: 165.63 **
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 159.38
Minor level: 153.13
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 146.88
Minor level: 140.63
Major level: 137.50
The QQQ closed at 168.40. 168.36 is a minor support level. If the QQQ opens above this level, look for support at 168.36.
Also, watch the major 168.75 level. If the QQQ can clear 168.75, I would expect support there.
IWM:
Major level: 165.63
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28 **
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
The IWM closed at 162.94. This took out our objective of 162.50. The IWM continues to be the strongest index.
Taking out 162.50 indicates that the IWM should rally back above this level on any pullback. The next minor level to the upside is 163.28.
162.50 should now offer support. And minor resistance is at 163.28.
Buy against support.
TLT:
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19 <
Minor level: 116.80 **
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63
The TLT closed at 117.27. The TLT continues to bounce from its oversold condition.
117 should offer minor support. A break under that level the TLT should drop further.
Clearing the 117.19 line indicates it should offer support. If the TLT breaks under it, look for the TLT to resume its downtrend.
GLD:
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.61
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44 <
Minor level: 123.05 **
Minor level: 122.27
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
The GLD closed 122.48, closing under the minor 123.44 level. 123.44 should be resistance.
121.88 should be the objective. Higher levels should now offer resistance. Look for resistance at 123.44 or 125. Downside objective should be to 118 - 120 area.
XLE:
Major level: 81.25 <<<
Minor level: 80.47
Minor level: 78.91
Major level: 78.13 <
Minor level: 77.35
Minor level: 75.78 **
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
The XLE closed at 78.91. It closed exactly on the minor level. I am going count that as one close above the level. So, a close today above 78.91, look for a move up to 81.25.
Watch the upper band on the daily chart, which is now 79.04. A pullback could happen here if it fails to clear the upper band.
If the XLE pulls back, I would expect strong support around the 75 level. 78.13 should also offer minor support.
FXY:
Major level: 87.50
Minor level: 87.31
Minor level: 86.92
Major level: 86.72 **
Minor level: 86.53
Minor level: 86.14
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
The FXY closed at 86.26. Objective should be to 85.94. 86.72 should offer resistance.
The FXY is on its way back to the retest of the 84 area.
A larger drop to the 84 to 85 area is expected. Sell against resistance.
AAPL:
Major level: 193.75
Minor level: 192.19
Minor level: 189.06
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 185.94
Minor level: 182.81 **
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 179.69
Minor level: 176.56
Major level: 175.00
Apple closed at 187.63. Watch the major 187.50 level. If Apple cannot get back above 187.50, look for a drop to as low as 175. But, if Apple does pullback here, I would expect a retest of 187.50 before a correction sets in.
Minor support should be at 186.72. Watch this level today. If it can hold this level, I would expect a bounc higher.
Both short term charts, the 30 & 60 minute remain bullish.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: CMG, BA, GWW, ALGN, ILMN, COST, BLUE, AMGN, DE, HON, FANG, VRSN, EOG, VLO, SPLK, CNC, GRUB, SFLY, WAB, WIX
Bearish Stocks: CHTR, EQIX, LOGM, RCL, DTE, CHKP, SINA, ED, BCO, BG, D, PZZA
Be sure to check earnings release dates.