While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
DYN Long at $12.55
Premium Collected $0.48
COWN - Long at $14.95
DIS Long July $105 Call @ $32.60
DIS Short May 26th $109 Call @ ($0.23)
VRX Long at $13.69
VRX Short May 26th - $14 at ($0.40)
..........................................................................................
Yesterday the market contracted, with the S & P 500 closing at 2,398.42.? It closed 4.40 points to the upside.
The average true range now sits at 15.35 points.? And the range for yesterday was only 6.97 points.
This was less than the 1/2 the ATR.? Starting to sound repetitive, isn't it?
And with the VIX back down to all time low, it is starting to look like the price action from the two weeks before the big drop last Wednesday.
But, the fact remains that the S & P 500 is back within 6 points of the 2,406 objective.? The question is do we take it out on this drive?
I suspect we will find out the answer to that question today.
Follow the VIX today.? At this point, the VIX should continue to drop.? the downside objective should be to 9.38.? 11.72 should now be resistance on the VIX.
I was suggesting that 2,398.40 could offer minor resistance for the S & P 500. And yesterday, the S & P 500 closed at 2,398.42.
I would have preferred a clearer violation of that level.? Having said that, watch to see if the market can clear this level today.
Pre open, the market should open with a slight bullish bias.
Today we get the FOMC meeting minutes at 2:00 EST.? And earnings continue this week.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
?
Minor level: 16.02
Major level: 15.63
Minor level: 15.24
Minor level: 14.45
Major level: 14.06
Minor level: 13.67
Minor level: 12.89
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 12.11
Minor level: 11.33 **
Major level: 10.94
Major level:? 9.38
11.72 and 12.50 should offer resistance.? Minor support could be at 10.16.? But, the objective should be to 9.38.
Is the VIX becoming less useful as a tool to help determine market turns?
I don't think so.
$SPX:
Minor level: 2,414.10
Major level: 2,406.30
Minor level: 2,398.48
Minor level: 2,382.82 <
Major level: 2,375.00 ***
Minor level: 2,367.20
Minor level: 2,351.60
Major level: 2,343.80
Minor level: 2,336.00
Objective should be back to 2.406.30.? As I said above, watch the 2,398.40 level today.? I would like to see the market clear this level.? It needs to in order to head higher.
Minor support should be at 2,390.60.
QQQ: ?
Major level: 140.63 <
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28 **
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
The QQQ closed at 139.14. 140.63 should be the objective.
For the short term, the QQQ needs to clear 139.45.? If it can, it should move up to 140.63.
Support should be at 139.06 and 138.87.
IWM:
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
Minor level: 133.60
The IWM closed 10 cents under the 137.50 level.
136.72 should be minor support.? This level was tested yesterday. And perhaps will be tested again today.? Lower levels should offer support.
TLT: ?
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66 ***
Major level: 121.88 <<
Minor level: 121.09
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.96 ?
The TLT began to pullback, as expected.? If the TLT can close under 121.88 for two days, it could drop down to 112.? Look for the higher levels to offer resistance.
GLD: ?
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 120.32
Minor level: 119.53 ***
Major level: 118.75 <
Minor level: 117.97
Minor level: 116.41
Major level: 115.63
Minor level: 114.85
Minor level: 113.28
Major level: 112.50
The GLD sold off against the midband, which is 120.? Yesterday, the GLD closed at 119.14.? Expect a test of 118.75. If the GLD breaks under 118.75, I would expect it to head lower.
119.34 should be minor resistance.
118.36 should be support on the downside.
XLE:
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 67.97 **
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63
The XLE continues to bounce around under the 68.75 level.
As I said, it needs to clear 68.75 to head higher and it continues to act with resistance.
At this point, if the XLE breaks out, it could be a big move.
65.63 should be strong support at this time.? I would not expect the XLE to break under it.? This tells us that if it does, the XLE should head lower.
FXY:
Major level: 87.50 <<
Minor level: 87.11
Minor level: 86.33 ***
Major level: 85.94 ?
Minor level: 85.55
Minor level: 84.77
Major level: 84.38
Minor level: 83.60
Minor level: 83.20
Major level: 82.81
The FXY is now breaking down after the predicted two level countertrend upmove.
A close today under 86.33 and the FXY should drop to 85.94.? If you trade the FXY shoot me an email and let me know how you are doing.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 162.50, 156.25, 150, 143.75, and 137.50
The objective should be to 156.25. 153.13 should be support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, REGN, RTN, CB, NVDA, JNJ, BABA, MMC, YUM, XLNX, CTSH, ZTS, RH
Bearish Stocks: ORLY, AYI, UHS, CRO, RL, DXCM, FTL, TSCO
Be sure to check earnings release dates.