While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
Total Premium Collected $0.70
SNAP Long at $14.54
Premium Collected - $1.65
BERY Long Sept $50.00 Call at $2.70
BERY Long Sept $47.50 Put at $1.50
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After closing out the APA trade on Thursday, I suggested another strangle on BERY on Friday. Going out to September gives us some time to see if the stock will move.
This week is a shortened week with the holiday yesterday. And Thursday closes out the month of May.
Friday, the S & P 500 closed at 2,721.33. For the day, it was down 6.43 points. And the daily price bar formed a narrow range inside doji bar. This usually precedes a range expansion.
And the range for the day was only 12.37 points. Compared to the daily average true range of 26.79 points, the range was less than one half the average.
But, this contraction before a holiday does not surprise me. In fact, I mentioned this Friday.
Support from Friday's daily price bar is in the 2,721 to 2,722 area.
For the week, the S & P 500 closed to the upside 8.36 points. The weekly range also contracted. The weekly range was only 34.86 points, as compared to the weekly average, which is 75.96 points.
And the weekly bar was also a doji. Support area from last week's weekly price bar is in the 2,723 to 2,725 area.
Pre open, the S & P is trading about 18 points to the downside. This projects an open at around 2,703. This is below the 2,714 level and the price bar resistance levels. Look for resistance at these levels in the event the market bounces.
Short term charts remain bullish. Watch for support in the 2,698 area.
Continue to monitor the longer term levels for the market.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19
Minor level: 14.06 **
Major level: 12.50 <
Minor level: 10.94
The VIX closed at 13.17. 12.89 is a minor support level. And 14.06 should offer resistance.
The VIX is bouncing off the major 12.50 level, as expected. On the upside, 14.06 is the key level. Two closes above 14.06 and the VIX should continue higher.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40 <
Minor level: 2,714.88 **
Minor level: 2,675.83
Major level: 2,656.30
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
Major level: 2,578.10
Minor level: 2,558.58
2,695.30 is a minor support level and the market should open just above it. Watch to see if it holds. If it can't, I would expect the S & P to continue lower.
As long as the VIX continues higher, expect the markets to continue lower.
QQQ:
Major level: 175.00 <
Minor level: 171.88
Minor level: 165.63 **
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 159.38
Minor level: 153.13
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 146.88
Minor level: 140.63
Major level: 137.50
The QQQ closed at 169.72. Support should be at the 168.75 level. On the upside, look for resistance at the 169.92.
Like the S & P 500, the 30 minute and 60 minute charts remain bullish.
IWM:
Major level: 165.63
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 161.72 **
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 155.47
The IWM closed at 161.74. It closed 2 cents above the 161.72 level. To move lower, the IWM needs two closes under 161.72 to move to 159.38.
162.50 should offer resistance and the IWM spent three days trying to clear this level.
160.94 should offer minor support.
TLT:
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14 **
Major level: 118.75 <
Minor level: 118.36
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63
The TLT closed at 119.62. Look for a move up to 120.31.
Support should be at 118.75 and 119.53.
The TLT continues to bounce from its oversold condition.
GLD:
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.61
Minor level: 123.83 **
Major level: 123.44 <
Minor level: 123.05
Minor level: 122.27
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
The GLD closed 123.21, closing just under the major 123.44 level. 125 should offer strong resistance on the upside.
The midband on the daily chart is 122.99. Watch this key level. A break under this level and it should be resistance.
XLE:
Major level: 81.25 <<<
Minor level: 80.47
Minor level: 78.91
Major level: 78.13 <
Minor level: 77.35
Minor level: 75.78 **
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
The XLE closed at 74.58 yesterday. The upper band is now 79.48.
The next minor level to the downside is 74.22. Two closes under 74.22 and the XLE should test 71.88.
A break under 74.22 and it should become resistance.
FXY:
Major level: 87.50 <
Minor level: 87.31
Minor level: 86.92 **
Major level: 86.72
Minor level: 86.53
Minor level: 86.14
Major level: 85.94
Minor level: 85.75
Minor level: 85.36
Major level: 85.16
The FXY closed at 87.49, closing one cent under the major 87.50 level. This level continues to be a major resistance level.
Ultimately, a larger drop to the 84 to 85 area is expected. Sell against resistance.
Price is also above the midband on the daily chart. That level is 86.97. It should now offer support.
AAPL:
Major level: 190.63
Minor level: 189.85
Minor level: 188.28 **
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 186.72
Minor level: 185.16
Major level: 184.38
Apple closed at 188.58. 187.50 should be support. And 189.84 should offer resistance.
Both short term charts, the 30 & 60 minute remain bullish.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: GOOGL, BA, NFLX, FDX, NVDA, PANW, LRCX, BABA, MA, AAPL, AET, FFIV, DE, ACN, CAT, ATHN, V, UTX, MON, KLAC, CRM
Bearish Stocks: TSLA, NTES, AMT, LOGM, CASY, BCO, CAH, MDP, RRGB
Be sure to check earnings release dates.