While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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Modest moves continue to start the month.? After a modest 4.13 gain on Monday, the S & P 500 followed up with another modest gain of 2.84 points.
And once again, the market is contracting.? Yesterday's range was only 7.11 points, compared to the average true range of 15.09 points.? So, the daily range was about one half the average.
This tells us that a range expansion is forthcoming.? The question is when and in what direction will the move go.
I am still biased to the upside because the active objective for the S & P 500 is to the 2,406.30 level.? And at this point, we have not seen a pick up in the down to up volume.
Also, the 2,382.82 level continues to hold as support.? This is the key short term support level to watch.
On the bearish side is that fact that the VIX did not close under 10.55 yesterday.? It managed to reclaim that level by closing at 10.59.? Four cents may not seem like much, but it is enough to invalidate the short term set up.
Having said that, I feel that the VIX should fail at upper resistance levels.
The most likely levels for the VIX to fail at would be in the 10.74 to 10.94 area.? However, it could run all the way up to 11.72 and it would not affect the downtrend for the VIX.
Support levels based on last week's weekly price bar, is in the 2,377.27 to 2,384 area.
Today is our webinar and I hope to see you later.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 14.45
Major level: 14.06
Minor level: 13.67
Minor level: 12.89
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 12.11
Minor level: 11.33
Major level: 10.94 <
Minor level: 10.55 <
Minor level:? 9.77
Major level:? 9.38 Strong support
With a close yesterday above 10.55, the VIX needs two closes under that level to move down to 9.38.
11.33 should offer resistance.? Watch 10.16 for possible support.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,406.30 <
Minor level: 2,398.48 **
Minor level: 2,382.82
Major level: 2,375.00
Minor level: 2,367.20
Minor level: 2,351.60
Major level: 2,343.80
Minor level: 2,335.98
Objective is still to 2,406.30.
2,382.82 should continue to offer support.? 2,386.70 is a short term level to watch as well.? If the S & P 500 closes under 2,386.70, it could test 2,375.
QQQ: ?
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
Minor level: 133.60
Minor level: 132.03
Major level: 131.25
Yesterday's high came within one cent of the 137.50 objective.? Close enough to say it has been hit.
137.11 should be minor support.? 136.72 should also be minor support.
Minor resistance is at 137.89.
IWM:
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63 <
Minor level: 139.85 ***
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
The IWM closed at 139.15.? This is the first close under 139.85. A close today under 139.85 implies a move down to 137.50.
138.28 is minor support.? 140.23 could be minor resistance.
TLT: ?
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.09 **
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.96 ?
The TLT reclaimed the 121.09 level.? It closed at 121.70, just 18 cents under the major 121.88 level.? 121.88 should be resistance.? A break above that level the TLT should head higher.
121.09 is a key short term level.? If the TLT breaks under 121.09, it could drop to 117.
GLD: ?
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88 **
Minor level: 120.32 <
Minor level: 119.53 <
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.97
Minor level: 116.41
Major level: 115.63
The GLD had its second close under 120.32.? The objective for the GLD should be to 118.75.
119.14 should be minor support.? 119.92 is minor resistance.
XLE:
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
Minor level: 67.97 <<
Minor level: 66.41
Major level: 65.63
The XLE closed under 67.97 for a second day.? The objective should be down to 65.63.
67.58 should be minor resistance.? 66.80 could offer minor support.
FXY:
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.67
Minor level: 87.89
Major level: 87.50 **
Minor level: 87.11 <
Minor level: 86.33
Major level: 85.94? <
Major level: 84.38
The FXY closed at 85.93, one cent under our objective of 85.94.? 85.94 is a key level.? If the FXY closes under 85.94 today, it could drop to 81.
87.50 is major resistance.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 150, 143.75, 137.50, 131.25,
and 125.
The objective should be up to 150.? Apple reported last night and is off slightly before the open.
Watch the 143.75 level.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: AMZN, GOOGL, GD, ANTM, COST, JAZZ, UNH, HON, MON, BABA, DLR, WDC, CRM, PNW, CAKE,
Bearish Stocks: SJM, CL, ESRX, MNST, OXY, HIBB, SBH, HLX
Be sure to check earnings release dates
