While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
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KMI Long September $16 call @ $1.00
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The S & P 500 closed at 2,635.67 yesterday. It ended the day closing 19.13 points to the downside.
I mentioned yesterday that with the 98% close percentage on Tuesday, that the odds favored the high being violated before the low. And that is what happened.
Tuesday's high of 2,655.27 was exceeded yesterday's high by about five points.
The high for the day came before the Fed announcement at 2:00 EST. From there, the market dropped 29.17 points to close 19.13 points for the day.
When I give the percentages of the high or low for the day being violated, that is exactly what it means. It does not mean that the market will close in the direction of the violation.
Yesterday, the S & P 500 closed at 14% of the range of the daily price bar. So, we can interpret this to mean that the low of yesterday should be violated before the high.
The support area from last week's weekly price bar, which is 2,641, should no doubt be tested again today.
For the market to move higher, it will need to regains the 2,641 level. Because the market is trading under that level, it should offer resistance on a rally.
Minor support is at 2,622.10. Watch to see if this level holds as support on a drop.
Pre open, the market is relatively flat.
Tomorrow we will get the non farm payroll at 8:30AM EST.
Continue to monitor the longer term levels for the market.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 29.69
Minor level: 26.56
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 23.44
Minor level: 20.31
Major level: 18.75 <
Minor level: 17.19 **
Minor level: 14.06
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 10.94
The VIX closed at 15.97. It closed above the minor 15.63 level. For the day, it was up .48 points.
Resistance should be at 16.41 and 17.19. And minor support is at 14.84.
Also, watch to see if the VIX can hold the 15.63 level.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,812.50
Minor level: 2,792.98
Minor level: 2,753.93
Major level: 2,734.40
Minor level: 2,714.88
Minor level: 2,675.83 **
Major level: 2,656.30 <
Minor level: 2,636.75
Minor level: 2,597.65
Major level: 2,578.10
Minor level: 2,558.58
To move higher, the S & P 500 will need to reclaim the 2,641.60 level. If it does close under 2,641.60 today. I would expect a drop to 2,605.
On the upside, I would expect resistance at 2,653.80.
QQQ:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 171.88
Minor level: 165.63
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 159.38 **
Minor level: 153.13
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 146.88
Minor level: 140.63
Major level: 137.50
The QQQ closed at 161.82. It closed back under the major 162.50 level. The QQQ will need two closes above 165.63 to move higher.
Minor support level at 161.72. If the QQQ breaks under the 161.72 level, it could drop to 159.38.
IWM:
Major level: 159.38
Minor level: 158.60
Minor level: 157.03
Major level: 156.25 <
Minor level: 155.47
Minor level: 153.91 **
Major level: 153.13
Minor level: 152.35
Minor level: 150.78
Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 149.22
The IWM closed at 154.65. The 156.25 level should be tested.. 153.91 should offer support.
And major support is at 153.13.
TLT:
Minor level: 121.49
Minor level: 120.70
Major level: 120.31
Minor level: 119.92
Minor level: 119.14
Major level: 118.75 <
Minor level: 118.36 **
Minor level: 117.58
Major level: 117.19
Minor level: 116.80
Minor level: 116.02
Major level: 115.63
The TLT closed at 118.28. This now suggests that if the TLT closes under 118.36 today, it should drop to 117.19.
Resistance is now at 118.75 and 118.36.
GLD:
Major level: 131.25
Minor level: 130.47
Minor level: 128.91
Major level: 128.13
Minor level: 127.35
Minor level: 125.78
Major level: 125.00 <
Minor level: 124.61 **
Minor level: 123.83
Major level: 123.44 <
The GLD closed at 123.65. The GLD continues to try and hold the 123.44 level.
123.44 is a key level for the GLD. If the GLD closes under 123.44 for two days, I would expect a drop to 120 and possibly 118.
At this point, 124.22 should be minor resistance.
XLE:
Minor level: 76.95
Major level: 76.56
Minor level: 76.17
Minor level: 75.39
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66 **
Major level: 71.88 <
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75
The XLE closed at 73.66. The target should still be up to the 75 level.
If the XLE can clear 75, it tells us it should continue higher. 73.83 is minor support. And minor support is at 73.44. 71.88 should be support.
73.05 should be minor support.
FXY:
Minor level: 89.26
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.87
Minor level: 88.48
Major level: 88.28
Minor level: 88.09
Minor level: 87.70
Major level: 87.50 <
Minor level: 87.31
Minor level: 86.92
Major level: 86.72
The FXY closed at 87.14. 87.50 should continue to be resistance. And if the FXY has two closes under 86.72, it should drop to 84.
86.86 is the midband on the daily chart. And the FXY is just above it. Watch to see if it offers any support.
AAPL:
Major level: 175.00
Minor level: 173.44
Minor level: 170.31
Major level: 168.75 <
Minor level: 167.19
Minor level: 164.06
Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Apple gapped up and closed 7.47 to the upside after reporting earnings. It closed at 176.57.
178.13 is minor resistance. If Apple clears this level, it should continue higher. If it can't I would expect a pullback.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: BA, HUM, FDX, STZ, AET, COST, AET, RHT, FFIV, CVX, EOG, VLO, CTXS, EXP, MSFT, AZPN, WMT, MPC, CFC, FSLR, MLNX, ESRX, NKE
Bearish Stocks: NTES, AVGO, EA, VMC, DIS, CHKP, OLED, SWKS, QRVO, IRBT, INCY, LUV, CLVS, CRUS
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
