While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
CURRENT POSITIONS:
GOGO Long at $19.93
Total Premium Collected $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
Total Premium Collected $0.75
DUST Long $4.50
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DYN Long at $12.55
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FEYE Long at $13.65
Total Premium Collected $1.81
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I actually expected a bigger range on Friday than we got. The range for the S & P 500 was only 9.91 points. This is still smaller than the average true range, which is now 14.23 points.
The S & P 500 closed 9.77 points to the upside on Friday, at 2,399.29.
It is now within seven points of our objective, which is 2,406.30.
Even though we have now seen a series of narrow range days, the fact that the market continues to hit our upside objectives suggests that shorting is still not to be considered.
The question is where can this market go?
Well first off, we have the target of 2,406.30.? The S & P 500 is one swing
from hitting it.
The level after 2,406.30 is 2,437.50.? I do expect strong resistance at 2,437.50.
In fact, a pullback at that level would not shock me.? Having said that, if the market were to take out 2,437.50 on its first attempt, it would indicate that the market should continue higher.
As we approach 2,406.30, this level is actually the confirming level for 2,500.? If the S & P 500 can close above 2,406.30 for two days, the ultimate objective should be to 2,500.? But, some resistance should be at 2,437.50 in the short term.
I just wanted to step back a bit and outline the bigger picture.
As for Friday, the S & P 500 stopped at 2,389.38.? With an open above 2,390.60, that level should have acted as support and that is what happened. The low for the day was within 1.20 points of that level.
The VIX continues to trade around all time lows. But, as I keep repeating, it should continue to reverse off higher resistance levels and it keeps doing exactly that.
At this point, I would expect more of that until the VIX can close above the 12.50 level.
Friday, both the VIX and the S & P 500 closed to the upside.? This is a divergence that ahs not happened since April 10th. The market dropped about 30 points after that last divergence.
Support from last week's weekly price bar should be in the 2,390 to 2,394 area.
This week we will earnings from PCLN, NVDA, and WFM.
Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:
$VIX:
Minor level: 14.45
Major level: 14.06
Minor level: 13.67
Minor level: 12.89
Major level: 12.50
Minor level: 12.11
Minor level: 11.33
Major level: 10.94 <
Minor level: 10.55 <
Minor level:? 9.77
Major level:? 9.38 Strong support
The VIX closed at 10.57, just two cents above the 10.55 minor level. This is the second time now that the VIX has not been able to close for two days under 10.55.
12.50 should still be resistance for the VIX.? And 11.33 should also offer resistance.
Downside support should still be at 10.16.
$SPX:
Major level: 2,406.30 <
Minor level: 2,398.48 **
Minor level: 2,382.82
Major level: 2,375.00
Minor level: 2,367.20
Minor level: 2,351.60
Major level: 2,343.80
Minor level: 2,335.98
Objective is still to 2,406.30.
2,390.60 should offer support now.? And minor support is at 2,394.50.
On the upside, 2,402.30 is a minor resistance level.
QQQ: ?
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
Minor level: 133.60
The QQQ had its first close above 137.50, closing at 137.54.
137.20 should also be minor support. Minor resistance is at 137.70.? The next confirming level to the upside is 138.38.? Two closes above that level and the objective becomes 140.63.
IWM:
Minor level: 141.41
Major level: 140.63
Minor level: 139.85
Minor level: 138.28 ***
Major level: 137.50 <
Minor level: 136.72
Minor level: 135.16
Major level: 134.38
The IWM closed at 138.99, 71 cents above the 138.28 level.? The implication for the today is that if the IWM can close above 138.28, it should make a run up to 140.63.
137.50 should continue to offer support. 139.45 could offer minor resistance.
TLT: ?
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88 <
Minor level: 121.09 **
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75
Minor level: 117.96 ?
At this point, 121.88 should be major resistance.? The TLT closed at 121.29 on Friday.? Watch to see if the TLT breaks back under 121.09 or can get above 121.88.
The short term 30 minute chart is bearish and the 60 minute chart is bullish.? When the 60 minute chart moves into a downtrend, the TLT should continue down to its longer term objective, which is in the 112 to 115 area.
GLD: ?
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 124.22
Minor level: 122.66
Major level: 121.88
Minor level: 120.32
Minor level: 119.53
Major level: 118.75 <
Minor level: 117.97
Minor level: 116.41
Major level: 115.63 <
At this point, 118.85 should be resistance.? The GLD has had two closes under 117.97, which means the downside objective is 115.63.
117.58 should be minor resistance.? And 116.80 minor support.
XLE:
Major level: 75.00
Minor level: 74.22
Minor level: 72.66
Major level: 71.88
Minor level: 71.10
Minor level: 69.53
Major level: 68.75 <
Minor level: 67.97
Minor level: 66.41***
Major level: 65.63
The XLE closed at 67.31 on Friday.? A close today above 66.41 and the XLE should test 68.75.
66.41 should be minor resistance.? 67.58 could offer minor support. ?
FXY:
Major level: 89.06
Minor level: 88.67
Minor level: 87.89
Major level: 87.50
Minor level: 87.11
Minor level: 86.33
Major level: 85.94? <
Minor level: 85.55
Minor level: 84.77
Major level: 84.38
The next level down is 85.55.? Two closes under that level and it should drop to 84.38.? The FXY could manage only one close under 85.55.
85.94 should be minor resistance.? And 85.45 should be minor support.
AAPL:
Major levels for Apple are 150, 143.75, 137.50, 131.25, and 125.
Apple is within one point of the $150 objective.
151.56 should be minor resistance and 147.66 should be minor support.
WATCH LIST:
Bullish Stocks: PCLN, GOOGL, REGN, NOC, HUM, MMM, GD, AET, ALGN, ADBE, RCL, SWKS, KLAC, CBOE, CCL, CTSH, SSYS, BBRY
Bearish Stocks: FLT
Be sure to check earnings release dates.