I hate to be the bearer of sad tidings guys.
But I think the choppy, volatile, trendless, trading conditions we are all suffering right now will continue for a few more weeks, and possibly all the way out to the September 17-18 Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
Man! I wish I were still back in the Sahara Desert. There, I only had to worry about scorpions, poisonous snakes, heat stroke, and raiding Berber tribesmen.
I can afford to be flippant. I have just enjoyed my best trading summer ever, adding 10% to the value of my trading book since I took off for Europe in June.
This, I did with rickety Internet access, only occasional access to market information, and a six-hour time difference.
My secret? I kept my book small, my cash levels high, and didn?t check prices every 15 minutes.
Above all, I stayed patient, holding back from buying stocks that suddenly became cheap. Apple (AAPL) at $120? Disney (DIS) at $110? Tesla (TSLA) at $250?
Most importantly, whenever I thought about buying energy or commodity plays, I lay down and took a long nap instead. When I woke up, the temptation went away.
That said, we are clearly in a capitulation mode for the entire oil space (USO), and could reach a bottom in weeks, given the current rate of decay (an old nuclear physics term). The $30 handle seems to be begging for attention.
In fact, a bottom in energy could signal a bottom for the entire market, and trigger one of the great generational buys of all time. China, the marginal big buyer of all things energy, hasn?t died; it is just resting.
So back to the stock market.
Since April, I have seen a long sideways triangle unfolding for the S&P 500 (SPY). I think we will reach an apex in September, right around a confluence of several news events (Fed decision, energy bottom).
The initial direction will be down, probably through the 200 day moving average. But that will be a head fake, and the real move will start right after that.
Around then, the calendar will flip from hostile to friendly, as we enter the half year period which sees the greatest amount of stock buying (at least it has for the past 60 years). Also about now, the daily data releases will show a dramatic improvement in the economy.
That presents us with a rally into 2016 and a new all time high.
Sectors? You want to know about sectors? Jeez, you?re a tough crowd to please.
I think we can go back to our old reliables of technology (QQQ), health care (GILD), consumer discretionaries (DIS), cyber security (PANW), and biotech (IBB).
This coming cycle will see some new additions. They include interest sensitives, like banks (GS) and regional banks (KBE), homebuilders (LEN), energy (XOM), (OXY), (COP) and solar (SCTY), (FSLR), if oil doesn?t go to zero.
As for Apple, expect the slumber to continue until the next new product cycle for the iPhone 7 launches next year. In between cycles is never a great time to buy Apple, although we may get a pop going into the Christmas selling season.
For those who have been prudently sitting on their hands all year waiting for a chance to put more long term, non-trading money to work, this is it. Your entry point will open up over the next few weeks.
Let me tell you that I have an unfair advantage in making market calls like this that are bold, confident, and possibly bordering on hubris.
I have the good fortune to live in the San Francisco Bay area. It is like living 10-20 years in the future.
The GDP here is definitely not growing at a feeble 2% annual rate, as it may be for much of the rest of the country (like North Dakota, Oklahoma, and Texas). It is really growing at a 5% rate, and possibly much more.
The technology boom in the City by the Bay is reaching a 1990?s fever pitch. You can?t get restaurant reservations or lease office space. Companies have launched serial poaching of staff with only the most limited experience at eye-popping salaries. Contractors everywhere have turned into prima donnas.
Housing is a joke. A friend of mine managed to score a tiny, rent controlled pre-war studio apartment for $2,000 a month after winning a lottery against 50 other entrants. He had to pay a $100 ?application fee? just to enter the lottery.
Oh, and since this is one of the few dog friendly buildings in the city, the whole place smells like crap and dog hair, as every resident owns a pet. Open the door, and you get a slap in the face.
Yes, I know that the United States is not San Francisco. However, the tools and services they are creating here, at a breakneck pace, can be used by the rest of the world to dramatically improve productivity and profitability. That boosts growth and share valuations everywhere.
By the way, if any of you has a twenty something kid looking for a job and a purpose in life, send them to San Francisco immediately. With any luck, they will be able to gain a foothold and pick up some skills before the next crash occurs.
As for me, I am going to try and maintain discipline and not chase every little gyration of the market.
You can?t take advantage of the coming best buying opportunity in a year if you blew all your money trying to catch the small fry.
