Global Market Comments
July 13, 2016
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JULY 22 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR),
(FLYING WITH SIR RICHARD BRANSON),
(THE MYSTERY OF THE BRASHER DOUBLOON)
Global Market Comments
July 13, 2016
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JULY 22 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR),
(FLYING WITH SIR RICHARD BRANSON),
(THE MYSTERY OF THE BRASHER DOUBLOON)
As I boarded a Virgin Atlantic 747 to fly from New York to London a few weeks ago, who did I find in the seat next to me, but my old friend, Sir Richard Branson.
I first got to know the shaggy haired billionaire entrepreneur 36 years ago in London. I lived in a Georgian mansion I had lovingly restored in London?s Little Venice district, and he lived in a historic canal boat next door. The traffic in and out of his floating home was constant and never ending.
This was during his adventurer period, when he set a new record for crossing the Atlantic in a speedboat, and then repeated the feat in a high altitude balloon. He almost made it, crashing into the sea just west of Scotland.
It was about this time that he was traveling from Puerto Rico to the Virgin Islands to visit a new girlfriend. American Airlines cancelled the flight because there were not enough passengers.
So the ever enterprising Richard took up a collection among the grounded passengers and chartered a plane of his own, flying them all to his destination.
He knew he had had stumbled on the kernel of an idea. He spent the next day checking out lease rates for used 747?s.
A few months and a couple of government subsidies later, and the Virgin Atlantic Airways was born, pursuing a discount priced, premium service business model that has proven wildly successful.
I always fly Virgin, including the Atlantic, America, and Australia derivations.
British Airways did everything it could to put him out of business. It launched a fierce ?dirty tricks? campaign that included calling Virgin customers and telling them their flight was cancelled, and deliberately losing transferred luggage.
BA got busted, and ended up paying Virgin millions in damages. Some 33 years later, 18 Trans Atlantic competitors have gone bankrupt, while Virgin Atlantic prospers.
Once we were flying to Moscow together, he on one of his endless promotions (I think he drove a tank across Red Square), and me on some undisclosed government business (we won). He then asked me if I would like to land the plane going into Sheremetyevo Airport.
I said ?Sure.?
Flying into Moscow during the Cold War was a big deal, a logbook entry to be envied by other pilots and flight examiners alike.
So Richard escorted me into the cockpit and said, ?My friend, Captain Thomas, will be taking it in from here.? Without saying a word, the copilot stood up and I took the right hand seat. They knew the drill.
That was pure Richard, gracious all the way.
It wasn?t long after that that Richard almost killed himself bungee jumping off the top of a hotel in Las Vegas in a 50-knot wind. Then, his family finally asked him to take it easy.
I have the same problem.
These days I often bump into Sir Richard on the lecture circuit. I instruct the audience about how to make money in the stock market, as is my way. Richard then enthralls them on how to spend it.
We make a great team, although the ladies at the following receptions always seem far more interested in him than in me.
I wonder why?
Richard suffered a rare setback a couple of years ago when his Virgin Enterprise space ship crashed on a test flight while approaching 1.4 times the speed of sound, killing the pilot. He spent a day of soul searching with his team of 400 engineers, trying to gauge whether this was a fool?s errand.
In the end, he decided to continue on. Space is dangerous, and sometimes people die, but that is no reason to quit. His goal is to turn the project into a global airline that can take passengers from San Francisco to Australia in minutes, and ferry guests to his hotels in space.
Some 800 customers have already made $80 million in deposits on the inaugural space flight, joining the 500 who have already made it there since 1959.
Richard doesn?t think small.
He has suffered from dyslexia throughout his life, struggling to accomplish simple tasks that others do with ease. I have seen this before, a disability that supercharges people to overcome it, which they overshoot to accomplish great things.
To this day, he confesses to not having the slightest idea of how a balance sheet or income statement works. That?s quite a confession coming from a man who runs a global multibillion dollar empire. He was always the marketing guy, never the numbers man.
But he has a vague idea. One of his board members once drew a picture of fish being captured by a net in the sea. The water passing through the net was the gross sales, he explained, while the fish were the profit. He got it instantly.
Putting in an all nighter over brandy over the Atlantic discussing the important affairs of the world, Sir Richard and I arrived at Heathrow the next morning, somewhat the worse for wear.
He was met by an admiring staff, who whisked him off to a waiting Daimler limousine. I trudged off to customs and the Paddington Express.
?Next year,? I thought, ?Maybe next year.?
I?ll never forget when my friend, Don Kagin, one of the world?s top dealers in rare coins, walked into the gym one day and announced that he made $1 million that morning.? I enquired ?How is that, pray tell??
He told me that he was an investor and technical consultant to a venture hoping to discover the long lost USS Central America, which sunk in a storm off the Atlantic Coast in 1857, heavily laden with gold from the new state of California.
He just received an excited call that the wreck had been found in deep water off the US east coast.
I learned the other day that Don had scored another bonanza in the rare coins business. He had sold his 1787 Brasher Doubloon for $7.4 million. The price was slightly short of the $7.6 million that a 1933 American $20 gold eagle sold for in 2002.
The Brasher $15 doubloon has long been considered the rarest coin in the United States. Ephraim Brasher, a New York City neighbor of George Washington, was hired to mint the first dollar denominated coins issued by the new republic.
Treasury secretary Alexander Hamilton was so impressed with his work that he appointed Brasher as the official American assayer.
The coin is now so famous that it is featured in a Raymond Chandler novel where the tough private detective, Philip Marlowe, attempts to recover the stolen coin.
The book was made into a 1947 movie, ?The Brasher Doubloon,? starring George Montgomery.
This is not the first time that Don has had a profitable experience with this numismatic treasure. He originally bought it in 1989 for under $1 million, and has made several round trips since then.
The real mystery is who bought it last? Don wouldn?t say, only hinting that it was a big New York hedge fund manager who adores the barbarous relic. He hopes the coin will eventually be placed in a public museum.
Who says the rich aren?t getting richer?
?They are energetic. They are very smart. But a lot of them?they are paper pushers. They make a fortune. They pay no tax. It?s ridiculous, OK?? said presidential candidate, Donald Trump.
Global Market Comments
July 12, 2016
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TRADING FOR THE NON-TRADER),
(ROM), (UXI), (UCC), (UYG),
(AN EVENING WITH TRAVEL GURU ARTHUR FROMMER)
ROM ProShares Ultra Technology
UXI ProShares Ultra Industrials
UCC ProShares Ultra Consumer Services
UYG ProShares Ultra Financials
Global Market Comments
July 11, 2016
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHAT?S ON YOUR PLATE FOR THIS WEEK?),
(SPY), (TLT), (FXY), (FXE), (FXB),
?(GLD), (SLV), (WEAT), (USO), (VIX),
(IS THE 30-YEAR MORTGAGE AN ENDANGERED SPECIES?),
(TESTIMONIAL)
SPY SPDR S&P 500
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond
FXY CurrencyShares Japanese Yen
FXE CurrencyShares Euro
FXB CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling
GLD SPDR Gold Shares
SLV iShares Silver Trust
WEAT Teucrium Wheat
USO United States Oil
^VIX VOLATILITY S&P 500
Friday?s blockbuster nonfarm payroll report certainly will give markets a positive spin coming out of the gate this week.
Some 287,000 jobs were added last month, dwarfing the disappointing 38,000 figure seen for May. The headline unemployment came in at a decade low 4.9%.
With flip-flopping, on again, off again statistics like these, traders? lives have been made as hellacious as ever.
We should expect another low volume week of summer trading. However, price action may be extreme as traders and investors struggle to digest the implications of the post Brexit world.
I don?t belief Brexit will take place, but we may not know for sure for 3 months to a year. There won?t be a sudden, market-moving announcement, just a rising tide of legal and popular challenges that erode the likelihood that Britain will permanently leave the EC.
My bet is that stocks (SPY) make a few more feeble stabs at an upside breakout that fail, leading to yet another ferocious 5%-10% correction this summer. That is where you load the boat for a yearend rally.
Volatility (VIX), (VXX) will remain high. Trade the $14-$24 range.
That will lay the groundwork for Treasury bonds (TLT) to reach even more lofty highs. A sub 1.30% yield is within range.
Gold (GLD) will remain strong, silver (SLV) stronger.? The Japanese yen (FXY), (YCS), will stay frustratingly high, at least until the Bank of Japan acts, which could be any day.
The Euro (FXE), (EUO) will keep meandering as long as an economic dark cloud hangs over its head. The British pound (FXB) should break to new lows.
Oil will remain confused and indifferent as a structural 2 million barrel a day over supply is battered by temporary supply disruptions throughout the Middle East.
Peace in Libya among warring factions, now being negotiated, could bring a sudden oil price collapse.
The Ags will try to bottom again. But with the sun shining and the greenback strong, I am not holding my breath.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis president, noted centrist James Bullard, speaks a couple of times this week, and may indirectly confirm that the Fed intends to sit on its hands with it's interest rate policy for the foreseeable future.
The JOLTS report will come out at 10:00 AM EST on Tuesday and should confirm a level of job offerings consistent with a robust economy.
The Mortgage Applications report we get at 7:00 AM EST on Wednesday will give us the first peak at how the new ultra low interest rates triggered by Brexit are impacting home borrowing. My bet is that they are way up.
The most useless report this week will be the Fed?s Beige Book Minutes out at 2:00 PM EST Wednesday, as whatever conclusions that were reached were rendered moot in this post Brexit world.
The Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday will confirm that unemployment remains close to a four decade low.
The finale for significant data releases for the week will be the Baker Hughes Rig Count out at 1:00 PM EST. This one is anyone?s guess.
With the Republican Convention only a week away, expect political distractions to ramp up. The Cleveland city fathers are nervous as hell. The Democrats will go silent, letting the Republicans hoist themselves on their own petard.
As for me, I will be moving my base of operations from Dubrovnik, on the Eastern Adriatic coast, to Zermatt, high in the Swiss Alps, where the WIFI is much better.
I?ll be making a pit stop in Florence, Italy to catch the ?Birth of Venus? at the Uffizi Gallery and the Statue of David at the Accademia.
One of the great anomalies of the American credit markets has always been the existence of the 30-year fixed rate home mortgage.
Long the favorite of homeowners, it has financed the majority of US residential property purchases since a Depression era housing stimulus program created them in 1938.
That is until now.
A perfect storm of institutional, political and economic factors is conspiring to bring an end to this type of loan.
Is it truly going the way of the dodo bird?
Look at the global credit landscape, and the 30 year fixed rate loan exists nowhere else.
Banks in all other countries only offer floating rate loans, where interest rates are adjusted monthly, quarterly, or annually to reflect the ebb and flow of the bond market. Thus, the homeowner assumes all of the interest rate risk.
So if you borrow money to buy a house and interest rates remain unchanged or fall, then so does your monthly payment. If rates rise, then so does your monthly nut. If they rise a lot, then you are toast.
The 30-year fixed only exists thanks to a massive government subsidy. That comes in the form of two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
They buy home mortgages from banks, securitize them, and sell them on to end investors with a government guarantee. Thus the government took all the credit risk off of the banks and on to their own books. At the peak, the pair owned or guaranteed more than $5 trillion in debt.
And therein lies the problem.
When the 2008-2009 financial crisis came storming in, it didn?t take long for many of GSE?s home loans to default.
Thanks to the credit excesses of the 2000s, liars loans, and excess leverage, it turns out that many of the loans sold to them as prime credits were in fact junk. The default rates of some mortgage-backed securities exceeded 50%.
It didn?t take long for the GSEs' capital to get completely wiped out. They effectively declared bankruptcy (the polite term used was conservatorship), and were only kept alive with a $360 billion government bailout.
Private shareholders in the two were wiped out, and the stocks delisted from the NYSE.
At present, the two GSE?s are stuck in a holding pattern, waiting for congress to decide their fates. Fat chance of congress deciding on anything in its current gridlocked state.
At the very least, they require $150 billion in new capital to operate independently once again. However, congress is in no mood to spend money either.
Many analysts expect that it is just a matter of time before the two GSEs disappear. The daggers are certainly out in Washington, where many see them as just another subsidy or entitlement program, which they are.
Wipe out the GSEs, and you kill off the 30 year fixed rate mortgage, and by implication, the residential housing market as well.
This is happening two years after the Federal Reserve is ending its quantitative easing program, which, at it's highs, bought 50% of all the mortgage backed securities issued, or about $40 billion a month.
A privatized 30-year market would probably boost rates by 200 basis points, up from the present 3.40% to 5.40%, or about what your average subprime borrower might have to cough up.
That means monthly mortgage payments that are 50% higher than now. That is unless you have a near perfect FICO score of 750 or higher, and are willing to move all of your current financial transactions to the new lender.
However, the banks are likely to step in with other products like a 5/1 year adjustable rate mortgage, or just outright floaters to fill the gap.
As long as the world remains in a deflationary funk, the prospects of a serious rate spike are extraordinarily? low. The end result will be more risk for consumers, and less for the banks?.and the government.
In any case, with some 40% of today?s buyers paying all cash, the debt markets are less relevant than they used to be.
The 30-year is a bit of a dinosaur. The average holding period for a home is four years, and I never understood why borrowers paid the extra premium for the 26 years worth of debt they didn?t need. I guess it's because that?s what everyone else does.
It is most efficient to match your loan maturity with the time you expect to stay in your house. Five year loans should cover most of us, and certainly ten years. Shorter-term loans carry interest rates 100-150 basis points cheaper than the 30-year fixed.
This is all another facet of an economy that is evolving at an accelerating rate. It is finding the true value of everything and re-pricing them accordingly at hyper speed.
Think Amazon and books, iTunes and music, Netflix and movies and Ebay and clothes. Suddenly things have gone from expensive to cheap, while others make the trip from artificially cheap to expensive.
The 30-year fixed rate loan is about to make that second trip.
Congratulations on your success. Your path has been your own and your outside the box thinking is refreshing and powerful. No doubt, you have enjoyed it and yet surprised yourself and others with it over the years.
The reason for my contact is your insight into the inevitability of solar energy costs going to nearly zero. I agree. You clearly understand that this transition is massive to every aspect of our lives - and yet very few "get it".
The next 15-40 years will see a transition that will be founded on virtually free and abundant energy. This abundant, almost zero cost energy will accelerate the effects of medical advances. It will transform our resource sectors from agriculture to mining to chemicals.
It will see manufacturing shift from factories and mass production to local 3D printed products - perhaps even food. It will mean AI and automation... And yes, it will mean that human labor will not be as needed or as valuable. Our relationship to work, income, wealth, etc... will have to change.?
Labor and the nature of work will be a huge challenge. Globalization has decoupled the industrial and wealth agendas from national needs that were characteristic of colonial times.
No longer do US companies like Ford pay higher wages to their employees so that they can afford their products. So, real wages have been effectively flat since the mid '70's. Despite productivity gains, wages go nowhere.
If the market alone were to determine the future of labor, we would simply have more "surplus population" as was defined in the periods?before the 20th?century.
In our world, governments will not survive such a trend. This fact is already responsible for Brexit, Trump, Sanders, Greece...?
I believe that acceleration of the adoption of renewable energy, particularly solar, and the gains achieved from lower cost energy as well as the egalitarian nature of energy wealth afforded by solar is economically and sociologically key to a more peaceful and productive transition to the future.
Massive wealth and power concentrations are threatened by the economic realities of renewables and the distribution of wealth and power therefrom. While they will not go down without a fight, certainly slowing adoption where possible and seeking to replicate their monopolies in a renewable world, they cannot win.
Short of wars and physical devastation in attempts to maintain the "scarcity" that capitalism thrives upon, they cannot prevent the more egalitarian future that abundant, low-cost energy is bringing.
So, thanks for hanging in on my email. I see that you are a free thinking, "somewhat" non-conformist. You get this.
Best wishes and thanks for your insight and your work.
Best regards,
Tom
Marion, Massachusetts
Thanks for your input, Tom.
John Thomas
?The market is like a bathtub. Money is sloshing from one sector to another, but it is not leaving,? said strategist Louis Navellier, of Navellier Associates.
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