I was awoken from a dead sleep in the middle of the night in my suite on the Orient Express by a juddering halt and the smell of burning brakes in the air.

We were somewhere high in the Swiss Alps, and every single passenger on the first class only train had to be thinking that a murder had just been discovered.

It turned out that in the darkness we had hit a 400-pound wild boar astride the tracks. We spent four hours on a remote siding waiting for Swiss National Rail to deliver us a new engine.

I elicited chuckles when I ordered boar for lunch the next day. The ma?tre d? assured me it wasn?t ready yet, as the meat had to soak in vinegar for 48 hours before cooking.

That's the kind of thing you only hear in Europe.

I boarded the train that morning at London?s Victoria station in anticipation of the trip of a lifetime.

Venice Simplon Orient Express didn?t disappoint, although I would not be surprised if the IRS questioned the $8,500 cost for the 34-hour trip as a business expense on my tax return this year.

The legendary train has been featured in a dozen films (James Bond and Agatha Christie), two dozen television shows, and played a major part in countless novels. You can even buy the video game.

The modern Orient Express is in fact three different trains.

From Victoria Station in London to Folkestone on the coast, I traveled on a vintage British train that was definitely showing its age.

Then I boarded a bus, which drove on to a flatbed rail car that whisked us through the tunnel under the English Channel.

There, we claustrophobes closed our eyes and held our breath for 20 minutes, which at the nadir my altimeter watch showed us at 1,500 feet below sea level.

The real luxury started when I boarded a vintage 1924 Pullman first class sleeping car in Calais, France, lovingly restored to the day it was built.

I set my watch ahead one hour and back 92 years. Suddenly, the trees resembled those in impressionist paintings, the land was dotted with Norman fortresses, and gasoline was $8 a gallon.

The original Orient Express, from Paris to Istanbul, made its inaugural journey in 1882, and quickly became famous for its unheard of luxury and speed. Modern bullet trains and cut-rate airlines put it out of business 100 years later.

The current incarnation started in 1977 when James Sherwood, who had built up a fortune through Sea-Land Containers, bought three dilapidated Pullman rail cars at an auction in Monte Carlo.

Like all of us with insanely expensive hobbies, he sought a way for outsiders to fund his passion.

Hence, the Venice-Simplon Orient Express started luring big spenders and the romantically inclined in 1982 (click here for their site http://www.orient-express.com/web/vsoe/venice_simplon_orient_express.jsp).

I became one of the original passengers in England when my broker chartered it for a day of client entertainment, an ancient steam engine laboring all the way.

Over the next 30 years, Sherwood built Orient Express into one of the world?s preeminent luxury brands, on par with Cartier, Tiffany, and Chanel.

He developed a massive global network of cross marketing deals that tied in package tours, hotels, cruises, and other vintage trains.

Today, the parent company, Orient Express Hotels (OEH) carries a market cap of $1.15 billion (click here for that site http://www.orient-express.com/).

Ironically, the company today still only owns one of it's dozens of rail cars. The rest have been sold to Middle Eastern investors with long-term leaseback contracts.

The dinner onboard is the highlight of the trip, a fabulous six course, three hour affair. There you meet the other passengers, all dressed to the nines.

Most were wealthy elderly couples knocking off a bucket list item, along with a few young hedge fund managers and a passel of mistresses.

I was one of the few Americans. I ate with a casino operator in Ireland and the owner of a manufacturing company in the UK. All I can say is thank goodness for the elastic waist on my tux trousers.

Having spent a lifetime analyzing corporate managements, I was fascinated by the operation of the train.

While the onboard staff is limited to 79, they are supported by a management, marketing, and engineering team of no less than 4,500.

You don?t just show up with a 17-car train in Europe?s incredibly congested rail network. You must first file a route plan and get a clearance slot, much like any airline.

Engines and crews must be changed at every border. Mechanics are onboard with an ample stockpile of 1920?s rail car parts.

Oblivious passengers are frequently left stranded behind at stations along the way and must be retrieved by taxis, which catch the train down the line.

To make up the time we lost due to the unlucky boar, the rail authorities routed us though the 12 mile long transalpine tunnel under Spl?gen Pass, then along the sublime shores of Lake Como, where the train rarely travels.

We roared past George Clooney?s house, who, I am told, is a frequent passenger on the train.

Amazed Italians were waving and taking pictures of us with their cell phones at every stop.

Suddenly the buildings were all shaded in pastels, the churches changed from Protestant to Catholic, and the trees resembled those in Renaissance religious paintings.

We raced over the causeway to Venice?s Marco Polo station that evening, dumping our considerable luggage into a private speedboat which whisked us away down a Grand Canal crowded with gondolas, en route to the fabled Cipriani Hotel.

To be continued.

I have a prediction to make.

When Donald Trump takes the podium to accept the Republican nomination for the presidency this week, he will not talk about how much money he has made in the stock market over the past seven years.

Nor will he mention how the value of his real estate portfolio has doubled. Completely missing will be mention of a 4.9% unemployment rate, weekly jobless claims at a 43-year low, and corporate profits at an all time high.

What we WILL hear about is the terrible state of the US economy, a coming Great Depression, and an imminent stock market crash that will make the 2008-2009 disaster look like child?s play.

I know he will take this line because he has said it many, many times before.

Needless to say, this is NOT a positive message for the stock market.

Normally, I wouldn?t care about market predictions from an aspiring political candidate. We already know it?s all about bluff, bluster, and empty promises.

However, these are not normal times.

US stocks are now more overbought than any time in their history.

Price earnings multiples at 20X in a 2% a year growth economy is unheard of. The geopolitical backdrop is worsening, with black swans arriving weekly.

And Brexit? Has anyone heard of Brexit?

Usually, this would be enough to cause me to don my helmet and hide out in a deep bombproof desert bunker with a year?s supply of food, water, and ammo.

But it gets worse.

The frenetic rally in stocks we have seen since the post Brexit low six weeks ago, has been of the lowest quality I have ever seen.

It has occurred with steadily falling volume. There has been almost no individual or institutional participation.

It has been all about companies buying back their own stock, and hedge funds covering losing shorts on stop loss orders.

Here is the great irony in what is going on in all asset classes globally.

Central banks are flooding the world with money in order to stimulate economic growth. This was partly spurred by the surprise Brexit. But the rot was already well advanced everywhere.

This has driven interest rates to absurdly low levels. Eventually, this will stimulate economies, as it successfully did in the US from 2009 to 2014.

However, the immediate impact will be to drive up the price of ALL financial assets.

This is why you have seen the unheard of occurrence of simultaneous highs in stocks (SPY), bonds (TLT), precious metals (GLD), REIT?s (GGP), Master Limited Partnerships (AMLP), and the US dollar (UUP).

I know this is supposed to be impossible according to your economic textbooks. But it is happening.

For the mathematicians out there, let me tell you how insane things have gotten in the stock market.

With the Dow Average up NINE CONSECUTIVE DAYS, we are approaching a three standard deviation move in prices.

Usually, you only see moves of this magnitude in sudden gaps DOWN.

You saw this in the two day, $1000 point drop that followed Brexit, the 10% melt down in January triggered by weak Chinese economic data, and the August, 2015 $1,100 point flash crash.

To see three standard deviations on a move UP is a once in a lifetime event. The last time I saw one was in 1989 at the end of the great Japanese bull market.

But wait! There?s more!

The S&P 500 is now 7.67% above its 50-day moving average, an occurrence as scarce as hens? teeth. You almost have to be as old as me to remember how often this happens.

The narrowness of this rally is almost unprecedented. My technical friends have been jumping up and down screaming that only 28 of the S&P 500 are at all time highs, and a mere 78 are in clear uptrends.

To see so much buying focused on so few shares is unnerving, to say the least.

All of the above is why I have sold short the S&P 500.

Mind you, this is not the time to bet the ranch. I have put on a position that is as conservative as possible, namely the (SPY) August $221-$224 vertical bull put spread.

I have gone front month, deep in the money, and small in size. The (SPY) has to rise another 1.8% on top of an already incredible 9.60% move for me to lose money on this position. And it has to accomplish this feat in a short 17 days.

If the stock market continues to appreciate, I?ll just roll the position up and double the size.

Here are two downside levels that are key to any retracement:

$2,135 ? is the previous high for the S&P 500 that certainly bears retesting. If it holds, we are going to even higher highs. If it doesn?t, new allocations to equities are put on hold.

$2,080 ? Is the next level of support. If it holds, we will set up a new trading range from $2,080 to $2,170 for the foreseeable future. If this one fails, the market will give back its entire July rally and take us back to the Brexit low of $1,980.

In either of these cases the existing (SPY) short position earns the maximum potential profit of 18.2%. It?s better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

Anyone who is aware of the above might want to join me in my desert bunker.

If you send me a nice email, I?ll save you a place. Just bring your own M-16.

Runaway Bulls Can Be Dangerous

Come join me for afternoon tea for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting high in the Alps in Zermatt, Switzerland at 2:00 PM on Friday, July 22, 2016.

The guests and I will engage in an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today. Coffee, tea, and schnapps will be made available, along with light snacks.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too.

Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $197.

I?ll be arriving early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The event will be held at a central Zermatt hotel with a great Matterhorn view, operated by one of the village?s oldest families and long time friends of mine. The hotel is just down the street from the town?s beautiful 17^th century church.
The details will be emailed directly to you with your confirmation.

You are welcome to attend in your mountain climbing gear, but you will have to leave your boots at the door. Socks only are welcome, and if it?s cold, we will throw some extra wood on the fire.

Last year, someone came down from the Matterhorn summit straight to the seminar, sunburned and tired but elated. He even gave me a valued pebble from the summit.

The Swiss National Day is on the following Saturday, August 1 and Zermatters throw a blowout party to celebrate the event. Citizens converge on the village from all over Switzerland to participate in an hour long parade up the main cobble stoned street, dressed in traditional folk costume and playing mountain instruments.

The Bahnhoffstrasse is packed with merchants offering national dishes, fine pastries, and plenty of local beer and wine. We usually end up dancing a polka in front of the town church.

If you can still stand up, giant bonfires are lit on the surrounding mountain peaks at sunset, followed by an impressive fireworks display. For the last three years, a torrential downpour followed.

It is all a complete blast, so I attend every year.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.

To purchase tickets for the seminar, please click here .?