Global Market Comments
November 20, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TRADING THE KENNEDY ASSASSINATION)
Global Market Comments
November 19, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(THE BUY AND FORGET PORTFOLIO),
(SPY), (IXUS), (EEM), (VNQ), (TLT), (TIP)
(GRAPES OF WRATH REDUX),
(TESTIMONIAL)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
iShares Core MSCI Total Intl Stk (IXUS)
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM)
Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
iShares TIPS Bond (TIP)
It?s another sign of the times when the weekend fruit picker population has doubled by people hard hit by the economy,?looking to save money on food costs.
After driving through miles of undulating brown hills studded with oak trees, passing mile upon mile of horse ranches, rusted out cars, and abandoned mobile homes, you come to Brentwood, the fruit capital of Northern California.
There, thousands of families, half from Asia, harvesting ripe Bing cherries and peaches at the wholesale price of $1 a pound, fruit that normally costs $6 a pound at the supermarket.
It all is a great opportunity to teach young kids the value of hard work, and where their food comes from. Anything you eat in the orchard is free, an old California tradition. No doubt none of these people are counted in the government?s employment statistics. It?s all a sign of the snowballing ?local? food movement, where California has been a leader.
It is all a great deal if you don?t mind having purple fingertips at the end of the day. Just watch out for the cars pulled over on the side of the road on the way home, their occupants puking out all their excess cherries.
In a nod to the 21st century, growers in this Grapes of Wrath industry compile lists of email addresses, and notify their itinerant fruit pickers which crops are ready for harvest via the internet. Also on the calendar this season are grapes, apples, apricots, plums, loquats, nectarines, mandarin oranges, and wheel chair accessible walnuts (?).
At the end of each harvest, professional crews sweep through and pick up what?s left, if the prices will bear it. If you wonder why we put up with the earthquakes, high taxes, gridlocked politics, and a non-functioning state government, this is the reason.
By the way, does anyone know what to do with 50 pounds of cherries? Send me your recipes.
?The market always gets it right,? said Jim O?Neill, the chairman of Goldman Sachs International, who coined the term ?BRIC?.
Global Market Comments
November 18, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(INTRODUCING THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER EXECUTIVE SERVICE),
(WHY WARREN BUFFETT HATES GOLD),
(GLD), (GDX), (ABX)
SPDR Gold Trust (GLD)
Market Vectors ETF Trust - Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX)
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Global Market Comments
November 17, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(NOVEMBER 18 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(THE PARIS ATTACKS AND YOUR PORTFOLIO),
(FXE) (EUO)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
I was on the phone to the Pentagon first thing this morning to get their take on the Friday Paris terrorist attacks.
Here is what I learned.
Are you wondering how French Mirages flying off an aircraft carrier in the eastern Mediterranean knew where to strike 24 hours after the attacks?
The US simply handed over 20 of their dozens of missions they are flying everyday, with exact GPS coordinates. It only took the French a minute to program their weapons.
Their carrier, the nuclear powered Charles de Gaulle, was pre positioned there only three days earlier for just such a contingency. Clearly, someone was aware that something bad was coming.
America also promised to replace any laser-guided bombs the French used in their campaign within seven days.
I know this because I used to fly these missions myself in beaten up old C-130?s that could magically change color overnight, thanks to quick drying paint.
My sources told me that we are winning the war against ISIS. We are killing about 1,000 a month, which they then replace with new recruits. The NSA and the CIA are keeping terrorist recruiting sites open to continue to funnel jihadi fighters into our target zones over there.
Close the sites down, and they become hard to find, or they migrate to the US.
Some lone wolves recruited and trained online will get through, as they have already done in Boston, Kentucky, and Fort Hood. These are impossible to completely guard against.
Such are the risks posed by the Internet, as it has lowered the gate over our moats. That will be our price to pay in this war. As for the financial cost, it is minimal, little more than a training exercise. That?s why there have been no supplementary budget requests.
While success in the battlefield is ongoing, don?t ever expect a victory parade down Main Street.
This is a war that will end as quietly and surreptitiously as it began. You will just no longer notice the headlines in the papers anymore. Such is the state of modern cyber warfare.
I hate making money off of a tragedy. Somehow, it doesn?t seem right. I feel I need to take a shower afterwards.
That's what happened when I went into 9-11 net short for a host of reasons having to do with the aftermath dotcom bust and a coming US economic slowdown.
A terrorist attack was only a tiny blip on the radar then, and certainly nothing of the scale of what occurred was even remotely imaginable.
That is what happened last Friday when the first headlines on the Paris terrorist attack came across my screen. Within hours, a handful of casualties turned into France?s 9-11.
Only the day before, I added an (FXE) December $111-$114 vertical bear put debit spread to my model trading portfolio. This is a bet that the Euro will stay at, or below $111 by the December 18, 2015 expiration date.
For those who don?t trade options, I advised buying the ProShares Ultra Short Euro ETF (EUO).
I usually hate adding short positions after prolonged moves down in a security. But the outlook for the beleaguered continental currency is so dire I had no choice.
With the US planning to raise interest rates in December, and the ECB expected to cut them, a falling Euro has become everyone?s no brainer one-way bet in a year that has proved impossible to trade.
This is being driven by a US GDP growth rate of 2.0-2.50%, compared to a feeble 0-0.5% rate in Europe.
I merely jumped on the bandwagon. I never gave a thought about terrorism, ISIS, or any other geopolitical event.
Of course, the Euro collapsed on the news. The (FXE) December $111-$114 vertical bear put debit spread has rocketed by 11.5% in two trading days, adding 1.50% to my 2015 annual return.
It?s a classic case of the harder I work, the luckier I get.
If you had any doubts that the Euro is headed for parity against the greenback by year-end, you can banish those thoughts from your mind.
The immediate upshot of the Paris attacks is that the European Central Bank is going to have to step up their quantitative easing by quite a lot, and sooner. The drag created by the attacks offers no other choice.
France is the world?s largest tourist destination, with 75 million visitors a year (compared to a population of only 66 million).
Travel agents around the world are now offering emergency cancellations to their clients because of contractual force majeure contract clauses. French president Francois Holland has said nothing less than a state of war now exists, putting the kibosh on any planned romantic weekends.
This crisis gets piled on top of a new enormous social services bill for Europe to settle 400,000 Syrian refugees on short notice. There is also the clean diesel disaster at Volkswagen, one of Germany?s largest employers.
Let?s face it. Europe has suddenly become unlucky. But it?s a great time to be short the currency.
When the market hands you lemons, it?s time to make lemonade, or ?limonade?.
France?s ?Reposte?
A Salute from San Francisco
?Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably why so few engage in it,? said entrepreneur Henry Ford.
Global Market Comments
November 16, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(SAUDI ARABIA?S SECRET PLAN FOR GLOBAL PROSPERITY),
(USO), (UNG),
(CHINA?S VIEW OF CHINA),
(FXI), (BIDU), (BABA), (JD)
United States Oil (USO)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)
Baidu, Inc. (BIDU)
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)
JD.com, Inc. (JD)
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