?Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it, and I?m afraid we?re going down that road,? said corporate raider Carl Icahn.
Global Market Comments
September 29, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LOADING UP ON THE (XIV),
(XIV), (VIX), (SPY),
(THE POPULATION BOMB ECHOES),
(POT), (MOS), (AGU), (WEAT), (CORN), (SOYB), (DE)
(TESTIMONIAL)
VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX ST ETN (XIV)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. (POT)
The Mosaic Company (MOS)
Agrium Inc. (AGU)
Teucrium Wheat ETF (WEAT)
Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN)
Teucrium Soybean ETF (SOYB)
Deere & Company (DE)
Excuse me, but am I missing something here?
Has my advanced age obscured my vision, clouded my judgment, and left me discombobulated?
These are the thoughts that kept coming to mind when I looked at the action in the Velocity Shares Daily Inverse VIX Short Term ETN (XIV) on Monday.
At the absolute bottom of the August 24 flash crash, the Volatility Index (VIX) spiked up to $53. The (XIV) cratered to $22.20, or down some 53.75% from its week earlier level.
So far, so good.
During Monday?s market meltdown, the (VIX) traded up only to $28.33, but the (XIV) nearly revisited that August $22.20 low once more.
Isn?t this supposed to be mathematically impossible?
Something is out of whack here.
Either someone has invented a new math when I wasn?t looking, or these securities are mispriced.
Either the (VIX) is overbought, or the (XIV) is oversold. Given the humongous 50 point dive in the S&P 500 on Monday, I vote for the latter.
Whenever I see something artificially undervalued, I am inclined to don my ?BUY? hat. So I am committing 10% of my portfolio to a new position in the (XIV).
I have to admit that I am somewhat prejudiced when it comes to the (XIV), as I have had three profitable round trips with this baby in September.
It?s like the hot new girlfriend that falls in love with you, then dumps you?.three times in one week.
Besides, what else is there to buy?
I am still expecting a major league puke out in stocks in October, if not a full fledged crash. So, it?s way to early to start picking up bull call options spreads in single names, even the best ones.
So that leaves me with trading bullish and bearish vertical call and put options spreads in the S&P 500, which with this elevated volatility, I am pursuing with a vengeance on a daily basis.
And then there?s the (XIV).
Trading volatility can be a tricky animal. But if you get it right, you can make a fortune. This is why about half the Chicago traders still in business make a full time living trading just the (VIX).
You can pay all the way up to $24 for the (XIV) Exchange Traded Note and it still makes sense.
THIS THING WAS TRADING AT AN EYE POPPING $32.50 ONLY 10 DAYS AGO!
I?m betting that sometime in my life, the Volatility Index (VIX) will trade below today?s $28.33 high. In fact, I expect it to trade back to the mid teens within the next month.
If I am right, this position should increase in value by 50% when that happens.
If I am wrong, and the (VIX) trades higher than $53 in October, it will be only by a couple of points and for a couple of days. Like the hydrogen-7 isotope, (VIX) spikes tend to have a very short half-life (21 X 10 -24 seconds).
To make it easy for you, I am avoiding the 2X and 3X short volatility ETN?s out there, as well as the options market. That way, you don?t have to fight against the clock, and keep your partner awake all night tossing and turning.
The natural state is for volatility to fall over time, which it spends 90% of every year doing.
The current 30-day historic volatility for the S&P 500 is a hefty 27%. But a month ago, it was 18.51%, and at one point in the past twelve months, it fell as low as 3.03%.
So we are definitely at the very high end of the range. In other words, we are in fertile shorting territory.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a measure of the implied volatility of the S&P 500 stock index.
You may know of this from the many clueless talking heads on TV, beginners, and newbies who call this the ?Fear Index?.
For those of you who have a PhD in higher mathematics from MIT, the (VIX) is simply a weighted blend of prices for a range of options on the S&P 500 index.
The formula uses a kernel-smoothed estimator that takes as inputs the current market prices for all out-of-the-money calls and puts for the front month and second month expiration's.
The (VIX) is the square root of the par variance swap rate for a 30 day term initiated today.
To get into the pricing of the individual (VIX) options, please go look up your handy dandy and ever useful Black-Scholes equation. You will recall that this is the equation that derives from the Brownian motion of heat transference in metals.
Got all that?
For the rest of you who do not possess a PhD in higher mathematics from MIT, and maybe scored a 450 on your math SAT test, or who don?t know what an SAT test is, this is what you need to know.
When the market goes up, the (VIX) goes down. When the market goes down, the (VIX) goes up.
End of story. Class dismissed.
The (VIX) is expressed in terms of the annualized movement in the S&P 500, which on Monday closed at 1,881.77. So a (VIX) of $28 means that the market expects the index to move 8.09%, or 152.17 S&P 500 points, over the next 30 days.
To oblige, the big cap index has to therefore stay with a 1,729.60 ? 2,033.94 range.
You get this by calculating $28/3.46 = 8.09%, where the square root of 12 months is 3.46.
The volatility index doesn?t really care which way the stock index moves. If the S&P 500 moves less than the projected 8.09% over the allotted time, you are guaranteed a profit on your long (XIV) positions.
I?m more than happy to make that bet.
I am going into this detail because I always get a million questions whenever I raise this subject with volatility-deprived investors.
After spending years stuck in in the $12-$15 range, it was nothing less than mind blowing to see it spike up to $53 August.
For a detailed description of this 1X short volatility ETN please click the link for the issuer?s website at http://www.velocitysharesetns.com/xiv.
GOOD LUCK AND GOOD TRADING!
I Bet the Next Big Move is Down
With the entire agricultural space one of the preeminent investment disasters this year, you?d be hard pressed to find a long-term bullish argument for the troubled sector.
You know all those John Deere (DE) and Caterpillar (CAT) hats I saw American tourists wearing in Venice, Italy three years ago?
This year, I didn?t see one!
That is, of course, unless you read this newsletter.
Pack your portfolios with agricultural plays like Potash (POT), Mosaic (MOS), and Agrium (AGU) if Dr. Paul Ehrlich is just partially right about the impending collapse in the world's food supply.
You might even throw in long positions in wheat (WEAT), corn (CORN), soybeans (SOYB), and rice.
The never dull, and often controversial Stanford biology professor told me he expects that global warming is leading to significant changes in world weather patterns that will cause droughts in some of the largest food producing areas, causing massive famines.
Food prices will skyrocket, and billions could die.
At greatest risk are the big rice producing areas in South Asia, which depend on glacial run off from the Himalayas. If the glaciers melt, this crucial supply of fresh water will disappear.
California faces a similar problem if the Sierra snowpack fails to show up in sufficient quantities, as it has for the past four years.
Rising sea levels displacing 500 million people in low-lying coastal areas is another big problem. One of the 80? year old professor's early books The Population Bomb was required reading for me in college in 1970, and I used to drive up from Los Angeles to San Francisco Bay area just to hear his lectures (followed by the obligatory side trip to the Haight-Ashbury).
Other big risks to the economy are the threat of a third world nuclear war caused by population pressures, and global plagues facilitated by a widespread growth of intercontinental transportation and globalization. And I won't get into the threat of a giant solar flare frying our electrical grid.
?Super consumption? in the US needs to be reined in where the population is growing the fastest. If the world adopts an American standard of living, we need four more Earths to supply the needed natural resources.
We must to raise the price of all forms of carbon, preferably through taxes, but cap and trade will work too.
Population control is the answer to all of these problems, which is best achieved by giving women an education, jobs, and rights, and has already worked well in Europe and Japan.
All sobering food for thought.
?
?I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. My sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history, naval architecture, navigation, commerce, and agriculture, in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry, and porcelain,? said John Adams, the second US president.
Global Market Comments
September 28, 2015
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL CRASH ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(HOW TO TRADE A CRASH),
(TEN STOCKS TO BUY AT THE BOTTOM),
(SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (JNK)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ)
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)
Global Market Comments
September 25, 2015
Fiat Lux
ANOTHER SPECIAL CYBER WARFARE ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(CASHING IN ON CYBER SECURITY),
(PANW), (FEYE), (HACK)
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW)
FireEye, Inc. (FEYE)
PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK)
Who?s really reading Your email? I bet you?d like to know!
Another day, another hack attack.
Today we learned that 5.6 million fingerprint records kept by the Office of Personal Management were recently stolen.
This is the agency that functions as the US government?s human resources department, maintaining records on 21.5 million current and former employees.
The timing couldn?t be more inauspicious, as the announcement was made during a visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping, whose military was almost certainly the origin of the attack.
Great! Now the enemy has the fingerprints of every FBI and CIA agent!
There must be a way to make money out of this.
Wait! There is!
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) is a San Francisco Bay area cyber security company that offers companies and governments an innovative firewall platform solution for big, network wide security problems.
In the P&L sweet spot they are.
I know the company well, and have been recommending to my followers that they buy the shares for the past year, during which time it tripled.
What? You want me to buy a stock that has just tripled?
No, I have not just started smoking California's largest agricultural product (no, it?s not almonds or grapes).
By chance, I happened across a senior officer of the Palo Alto Networks at a dinner party last week. Prospects for the firm are booming, with sale growth running at a torrid 30% YOY rate.
Yet, (PANW) has only 10% market share of an industry that is currently exploding. This is an aggressive, extremely well managed $15 billion company that is about to become a $150 billion company.
Keeping in contact with the Joint Chiefs of Staff on a weekly basis, I am constantly concerned at how serious the cyber security threat has become, yet how little understood it is by the public.
You don?t have to go any further than the management of Sony (SNE), one of the world?s largest multinationals, which was almost wiped out last November by hackers from one of the poorest and most backward countries in the world.
Upset by the take down of their leader, Kim Jong-un, in a low budget comedy, The Interview, North Korean hackers were able to bring the firm to its knees.
They downloaded the entire contents of Sony?s hard drives, leaking the juicy parts to online journalists (Angelina Jolie?s pay, etc.), and then wiped them clean, destroying some 3,000 computers and 8000 servers. It was the hacking equivalent of a full-scale nuclear attack.
Sony had to revert to snail mail, couriers, and landline telephone calls to survive. They couldn?t even pay their employees. Some $6 billion in market capitalization was wiped out.
Now here is the scary part.
The FBI has confided in me that if the S&P 500 were subjected to a Sony level attack, 90% are unlikely to survive. And the Sony attack was actually a primitive, simplistic, low-level attack.
A lot of countries don?t like the United States for any number of reasons. Now they can do something about it. That is a problem. And a market.
Palo Alto maintains the world?s largest database of viruses and malware. That enabled it to trace the Sony attack to the Hermit Kingdom within hours.
It contained several lines of code that were identical to the ?Dark Soul? attack against South Korean banks in 2013, which incinerated 40,000 bank computers and caused $700 million worth of damages.
What the Sony attack revealed was a long history of massive under investment in cyber security by corporations and governments in the US, Europe, and Asia.
The potential future market for cyber security products and services is being wildly underestimated.
The great irony here is that the attack is not against systems, which are usually pretty secure. It is their human users that have become the problem.
Unfortunately, we are have become familiar with ?spoofing? emails where an innocuous email asks the user to ?click here? for an Adobe upgrade, a notice from Yahoo, or a request from PayPal to update your password.
Do so, and you invite lines of code that will eventually make it to your system administrator. Once they have his password, they can access or do anything.
Don?t think only dummies fall for this.
My friend, retired FBI chief Robert Mueller, had his personal account at the Bank of America cleaned out in a similar fashion. What was unusual in his case, they caught the transgressor, after a huge expenditure of bureau resources.
(Hint: if an incoming email appears the slightest bit suspicious, hover your mouse over the sender?s name, and the sending email address will appear. If it looks anything but belt and braces safe, don?t open it and mark it as SPAM. Especial watch for the last three letter of the address, which are always a tip off).
The FBI estimates that there are up to 10,000 hackers in the world with the capability of a Sony level attack, many operating from China, Russia, Eastern Europe, or other locations beyond the reach of US extradition treaties.
The global cyber war has been going on for about 15 years now, and the public hears very little of it.
In recent years, Iran attacked Saudi Arabia?s Aramco, destroying 30,000 computers, and briefly shutting down a portion of the country?s oil production.
A major attack was launched against the Venetian Hotel in Las Vegas, which is owned by prominent Israel supporter and major Republican Party contributor, Sheldon Adelson.
There is a happy ending to this piece. You don?t need to place your entire wealth into gold bricks and bury them in the backyard to keep it safe.
If North Korea is a bicycle in the hacking arms race, the US is the F-35 Lightening next generation stealth fighter.
We are winning the cyber war hands down, but you?d never know it. This is a war fought silently, online, and in dark shadows.
President Obama in fact authorized a measured counter attack on North Korea?s information infrastructure, which proved devastating. But it was only a pinprick relative to what we could have done.
Our real cyber weapons are reserved for an actual shooting war sometime in the future. That?s to prevent the enemy from learning our true capabilities and preparing for them.
Imagine a country trying to defend itself with snail mail, couriers, and landline telephone calls from an American assault. Think the Sony attack times 10,000. Nothing would work.
It couldn?t be done.
Congress has so far refused to fund a substantial increase in America?s cyber warfare arsenal, preferring instead to spend money on old heavy metal weapons systems, like aircraft carriers, tanks, and the above mentioned F-35.
It?s all about sucking money out of Washington to create local jobs in red states to win elections. A stepped up cyber program would focus money almost entirely in Silicon Valley.
Don?t want to do that!
This is how General George Armstrong Custer was sent to the Battle of the Little Big Horn with antiquated 16 year old Civil War trapdoor Springfield carbines, while the Sioux had state of the art Winchester ?yellow boy? repeaters.
And we know how that one turned out!
But don?t get mad. Get even. Take another look at Palo Alto Networks, FireEye (FEYE), and the Pure Funds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK).
Guess Who May Be Looking at Your Records
Global Market Comments
September 24, 2015
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY, OCTOBER 23 INCLINE VILLAGE, NEVADA STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(A VERY BRIGHT SPOT IN REAL ESTATE),
(A SHORT HISTORY OF HEDGE FUNDS)
?You can reduce discretionary spending down to zero and it won?t have much impact on our fiscal problems because it?s such a small proportion of the total,? said Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve.
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