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Arthur Henry

Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or The Chickens Come Home to Roost

Diary, Newsletter

Well what an interesting day that was!

News that former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn had been arrested and turned state's evidence against the president, his family, and his campaign, ignited the most volatile day of 2017.

The Dow Average crashed 350 points in minutes as thousands of pre programmed algorithms simultaneously kicked on the sell side. US Treasury bonds (TLT) rocketed a full three points.

It was like the world was ending.

This could be the beginning of the end for a certain former resident of Queens, NY, but it may take another year to play out.

As if the day did not resemble the plot line of a cheap dime novel enough, the headline hit just as the Republicans were holding a crucial vote on the tax bill.

The Volatility Index (VIX), (VXX), soared 30% in seconds, to $14.50. "RISK OFF" hedges like gold (GLD) and the Euro (FXE) popped nicely.

It certainly was a day when the cautious were rewarded. Cautious people like you, who have hopefully been following my advice.

Me, being the opportunistic, ever nimble trader that I am, took advantage of the turmoil to add two positions to my model trading portfolio.

I used the extreme spike in bonds to re-establish my short position in the United States Treasury Bond Fund (TLT).

I also used the dip in bank shares to add a long position in Bank of America (BAC), which I think could double in value in the next 2-3 years.

The hallmarks of the week were new trends which I have been predicting for months.

Stock pickers viciously rotated out of FANG's and into financials, energy, and industrials. The Wednesday Silicon meltdown, where some stocks fell as much as 15%, confirmed this view.

Big money moved from growth to value.

With the economy heating up the way it is, it couldn't go any other way.

Consider it all an early preview of how stock markets in 2018 will play out.

I am sticking to the same game plan that has worked since 2009. Use every Washington and geopolitical inspired selloff to add to your longs.

In the end, it is all about corporate earnings, no matter what the president says, does, or has happened to him, and those are improving dramatically, as the hard economic data confirms.

You heard it here first.

By the way, the economic data continued to deliver a gangbuster performance. Q3 GDP was revised up from 3.0% to 3.3%, The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index came in at an absolutely blazing 63.0, a decade high.

These hot numbers are coming in not just for the US, but for every major economy in the world. It is all the Global Synchronized Recovery I have been predicting since January.

The global economy is really in the best shape since the 1990's. That is a tough thing to bet against.

While a poor risk/reward has scaled back my trading significantly, the Mad Hedge Trade Alert performance continues to press to new all-time highs.

November finished at 2.08%, and December is already up 1.43%. This brings my trailing 12-month performance up to 55.66%.

This coming week it is all about jobs, jobs, jobs.

On Monday, December 4, at 10:00 AM EST, the November Factory Orders are published.

On Tuesday, December 5 at 8:55 AM EST we get the Redbook for the previous week, a read on chain store sales, which should be fabulous.

On Wednesday, December 6, we obtain November ADP Employment Report on private sector employment at 8:15 AM EST.

The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report is out at 10:30 AM EST.

Thursday, December 6 leads with the 8:30 EST release of the Weekly Jobless Claims.

On Friday, December 7 at 8:30 AM EST the November Nonfarm Payroll Report is out.

Then at 1:00 PM, we receive the Baker-Hughes Rig Count, which lately has started to turn up again.

As for me, I'll be performing like a FIFA World Cup goalie, fielding all of the Amazon packages sent my way. I was pretty busy on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2017-12-04 01:08:392017-12-04 01:08:39Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or The Chickens Come Home to Roost
DougD

Quote of the Day - December 4, 2017

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

"Short term volatility creates long term opportunity," said Rupal Bhansali, of the Ariel International Fund.

Thumbs Down

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Thumbs-Down-e1446471708855.jpg 202 300 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2017-12-04 01:05:012017-12-04 01:05:01Quote of the Day - December 4, 2017
Arthur Henry

December 1, 2017

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
December 1, 2017
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THURSDAY DECEMBER 28 MINNEAPOLIS STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(THE BRAVE NEW WORLD OF ONLINE RETIALING),
(SFIX), (M), (KSS), (GPS), (JCP)
(BIDDING FOR THE STARS), (SPX), (INDU),
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2017-12-01 01:11:562017-12-01 01:11:56December 1, 2017
DougD

Testimonial

Diary, Newsletter, Testimonials

In my wealth management practice, you helped me finesse September like a virtuoso. As my client's investments were crashing through their stops...I hung on.

Your sage counsel helped me ignore the noise, focus on the numbers and add to positions at a great entry point. The scar tissue you've built up over your career is no small benefit to your subscribers.

Thank you so much!

Brad
Bakersfield, California

 

 

0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2017-12-01 01:06:032017-12-01 01:06:03Testimonial
Arthur Henry

November 30, 2017

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 30, 2017
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE SILICON MELTDOWN FINALLY HITS),
(NVDA), (LRCX), (TSLA), (AMZN), (GS),
(THE GOVERNMENT'S WAR ON MONEY),
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2017-11-30 01:09:082017-11-30 01:09:08November 30, 2017
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Government's War on Cash

Diary, Newsletter

When I lived as a student in West Berlin during the 1960s, I had a nice little side business.

I organized weekend walking tours through the Berlin Wall at Checkpoint Charlie to visit East Berlin for American students too afraid to go alone.

To pay for it, I smuggled US dollars my customers paid me in my boots which I used to buy Ostmarks in the East at a 75% discount to the official price. I then covered lunch and all my other bills, booking a nice profit on the day.

That would be much more difficult to pull off today, as governments around the world have launched a war on cash that will not end until its ultimate demise.

The truth is governments hate cash.

This became clearly apparent when the government of India withdrew circulation of its two largest banknotes. Some 50% of Indian GDP is thought to take place in the underground economy in cash only.

The move caused a financial panic, as consumers sold gold (GLD) and other hard assets to meet bills because they were unable to settle accounts with the large denomination notes they had hoarded.

As we move towards an all-electronic economy, the few remaining purposes where cash is essential are largely illegal.

When I lived as a student in West Berlin during the 1960's, I had a nice little side business.

I organized weekend walking tours through the Berlin Wall at Checkpoint Charlie to visit East Berlin for American students too afraid to go alone.

To pay for it, I smuggled US dollars my customers paid me in my boots, which I used to buy Ostmarks in the East at a 75% discount to the official price. I then covered lunch and all my other bills, booking a nice profit on the day.

That would be much more difficult to pull off today, as governments around the world have launched a war on cash that will not end until its ultimate demise.

The truth is, governments hate cash.

This became clearly apparent when the government of India withdrew circulation of its two largest banknotes. Some 50% of Indian GDP is thought to take place in the underground economy in cash only.

The move caused a financial panic, as consumers sold gold (GLD) and other hard assets to meet bills because they were unable to settle accounts with the large denomination notes they had hoarded.

As we move towards an all-electronic economy, the few remaining purposes where cash is essential are largely illegal.

Waitresses, babysitters, and bookies don't report income to the IRS. Nor do drug dealers.

This is a big deal because eight states legalized marijuana in the last election.

Since banks are still banned from handling pot proceeds, this booming business has to take place entirely in cash. Tales about of dealers making their runs with shopping bags full of $100 bills are rampant.

The IRS estimates that $460 billion in tax revenue is lost every year through unreported income, which is largely earned in cash.

Some half of the entire US paper money supply is held by foreigners, where it is used to evade taxes, bribe foreign officials, and finance terrorism.

The US government's war on cash is not a new thing. In 1929, it cut the size of US banknotes by one third to save money on the cost of high-grade paper.

In 1970 the US Treasury banned the circulation of the $10,000, $5,000, $1,000, and $500 bills to halt mafia money laundering. Since then, the IRS has been the biggest beneficiary of the move.

Large denominations US bills are now solely the domain of collectors.

The US government would love to get out of the cash business, as it is so expensive to run. It spends about $737.4 million a year just to print American $1, $2, $5, $10, $20, $50, and $100 notes.

Paper dollar bills, which are actually made of 75% cotton and 25% linen, are completely worn out and have to be returned in only 18 months.

Coins are even a bigger loser. It costs more than two cents to make a penny.

Since the advent of color printers, counterfeiting has exploded. North Korea runs almost its entire economy on fake $100 bills, which are said to be the best in the world.

Today, some 80% of the entire $1.34 trillion M1 notes and coins in circulation in America are in the form of $100 dollar bills. That works out to $4,200 per person. Where has all that money gone?

The US is now considering eliminating even this convenient denomination. While $1 million in $100's can fit into a tote bag, that quantity of $10 bills would weigh 220 pounds, a quantity much more difficult to sneak around.

An all-electronic economy would certainly pose some privacy problems, as it would leave a massive paper trail on everything you do.

When you get audited by the IRS, the first thing they do it obtain your past three years of bank and credit card records detailing your every transaction.

State authorities will pursue phone records to establish your physical presence to verify residency. So how long did you really spend in tax-free Florida last year?

It would also pare back illegal immigration, as this is another industry that runs entirely on cash. Once here, undocumented workers are often paid in cash in restaurants and on construction sites.

There is truly no place to hide.

Other countries are already well ahead in the war of cash. In Belgium, some 93% of all financial transactions take place electronically.

Sweden has also been pushing hard on this front, taking the M1 money supply there down by 27% over the past two years.

Many small businesses there now post signs saying they don't accept cash. The goal is to move to an all-electronic economy.

The preferences of Millennials are also moving us towards the cashless economy.

Have you every been in line at Starbucks and noticed that the kid in front of you just paid $2 for a cup of coffee with his credit card? Or maybe he swiped his Apple Pay account on his iPhone?

Whatever the means, it is clear that hard cash is about to become a dinosaur.

John Thomas-16 yrs old
$10,000 Bill

No Longer in Circulation

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/John-Thomas-16-yrs-old.jpg 349 348 The Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png The Mad Hedge Fund Trader2017-11-30 01:07:402017-11-30 01:07:40The Government's War on Cash
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Testimonial

Diary, Newsletter, Testimonials

The confidence you have given me to enter the USD:JPY spot positions have returned me in excess of $1,500,000 in the last few months.

I'll be in California next year.

Can't wait to catch up. Dinner is on me, both times!

I know you said you aren't retiring until you're well into your seventies. Why so soon?

You're welcome to use this as a testimonial.

Cheers

Peter,
Australia
john-wearing-suspenders-hiking-with-fog-in-the-background

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/John-Wearing-Suspenders-Hiking-with-Fog-in-the-Background-e1480471883952.jpg 345 400 The Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png The Mad Hedge Fund Trader2017-11-30 01:06:162017-11-30 01:06:16Testimonial
Arthur Henry

November 29, 2017

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 29, 2017
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(STOCK POP, BANKS ROCK),
(BAC), (JPM), (GS), (MS), (WFC),
(PRINT YOUR OWN CAR),
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2017-11-29 01:08:462017-11-29 01:08:46November 29, 2017
Arthur Henry

Testimonial

Diary, Newsletter, Testimonials

I can't tell you how much I enjoy your blog. It is the first place I go every morning and I miss you on the weekends.

I stumbled upon your site about 4 months ago and have been addicted to it since day one. I really appreciate not only your insight into the markets, but also your global and historical perspectives.

All of this served up with your great sense of humor makes it a must read! Thanks for all your hard work.

Chip

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/john-suit.jpg 321 488 Arthur Henry https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Arthur Henry2017-11-29 01:06:122017-11-29 01:06:12Testimonial
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Quote of the Day - November 29, 2017

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

"You make the most money when things go from terrible to only bad." said Tim Seymour of emerging market hedge fund, Triogem Asset Management.

Leonardo DiCaprio

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Leonardo-DiCaprio-e1415561443779.jpg 198 300 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2017-11-29 01:05:152017-11-29 01:05:15Quote of the Day - November 29, 2017
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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