Global Market Comments
December 23, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(INDIA IS CATCHING UP WITH CHINA),
(WHO SAYS HEDGE FUNDS AREN?T ADDING VALUE?)
(PIN), (FXI)
(PETER F. DRUCKER ON MANAGEMENT)
PowerShares India ETF (PIN)
iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)
Global Market Comments
December 23, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(INDIA IS CATCHING UP WITH CHINA),
(WHO SAYS HEDGE FUNDS AREN?T ADDING VALUE?)
(PIN), (FXI)
(PETER F. DRUCKER ON MANAGEMENT)
PowerShares India ETF (PIN)
iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)
According to my old friend, Rick Sopher, chairman of LCH Investments in London, the top ten hedge funds have earned $153 billion for their investors since inception.
Rick, who runs his business from an elegant flat on posh Eaton Square, compiled the list after a comprehensive survey of the still operating 7,000 hedge funds worldwide. It is dominated by marquee names like Bruce Kovner's Caxton and Louise Bacon's Moore Capital. Of the 100 largest funds, 95% have returned much of their investors' original capital, and are using the remaining profits to trade on.
Of course, the numbers show a huge survivor bias. They don't include the hundreds of billions of dollars lost by now shuttered 'wanabee' managers during the financial crash, largely with highly leveraged fixed income, spread oriented, 'low risk' strategies. Many of these are still in liquidation, peddling illiquid assets for pennies on the dollar through online auctions and elsewhere.
The numbers highlight the increasing barbell nature of the hedge fund industry. The biggest funds continue to attract the big bucks, and a steady wave of defections from Wall Street, are funding hundreds of new startups. But many mid-tier firms are getting nothing and are struggling to stay in business.
?You can reduce discretionary spending down to zero and it won?t have much impact on our fiscal problems because it?s such a small proportion of the total,? said Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Global Market Comments
December 22, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE CHICAGO TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23 GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(THE ONE BRIGHT SPOT IN REAL ESTATE),
(A SHORT HISTORY OF HEDGE FUNDS),
(THE POPULATION BOMB ECHOES), (POT), (MOS), (AGU),
(THANK GOODNESS I DON?T LIVE IN SWEDEN), (EWD)
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT)
The Mosaic Company (MOS)
Agrium Inc. (AGU)
iShares MSCI Sweden (EWD)
Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Tuesday, December 23. A three course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $219.
I?ll be arriving an hour early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a downtown Chicago venue on Monroe Street that will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
I feel obliged to reveal one corner of this bubbling market that might actually make sense.
By 2050 the population of California will soar from 37 million to 50 million, and the US from 300 million to 400 million, according to data released by the US Census Bureau and the CIA fact Book (check out the population pyramid below).
That means enormous demand for the low end of the housing market, apartments in multi-family dwellings. Many of our new citizens will be cash short immigrants. They will be joined by generational demand for limited rental housing by 65 million Gen Xer's and 85 million Millennials enduring a lower standard of living than their parents and grandparents. These people aren't going to be living in cardboard boxes under freeway overpasses.
The trend towards apartments also fits neatly with the downsizing needs of 80 million retiring Baby Boomers. As they age, boomers are moving from an average home size of 2,500 sq. ft. down to 1,000 sq ft condos and eventually 100 sq. ft. rooms in assisted living facilities. The cumulative shrinkage in demand for housing amounts to about 4 billion sq. ft. a year, the equivalent of a city the size of San Francisco.
In the aftermath of the economic collapse, rents are now rising dramatically, and vacancies are shrinking. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac financing is still abundantly available at the lowest interest rates on record. Institutions combing the landscape for low volatility cash flows and limited risk are starting to pour money in.
Pack your portfolios with agricultural plays like Potash (POT), Mosaic (MOS), and Agrium (AGU) if Dr. Paul Ehrlich is just partially right about the impending collapse in the world's food supply. You might even throw in long positions in wheat (WEAT), corn (CORN), soybeans (SOYB), and rice.
The never dull and often controversial Stanford biology professor told me he expects that global warming is leading to significant changes in world weather patterns that will cause droughts in some of the largest food producing areas, causing massive famines. Food prices will skyrocket, and billions could die.
At greatest risk are the big rice producing areas in South Asia, which depend on glacial run off from the Himalayas. If the glaciers melt, this crucial supply of fresh water will disappear. California faces a similar problem if the Sierra snowpack fails to show up in sufficient quantities, as it has for the past two years.
Rising sea levels displacing 500 million people in low-lying coastal areas is another big problem. One of the 80-year-old professor's early books The Population Bomb was required reading for me in college in 1970, and I used to drive up from Los Angeles to the San Francisco Bay area just to hear his lectures (followed by the obligatory side trip to the Haight-Ashbury).
Other big risks to the economy are the threat of a third world nuclear war caused by population pressures, and global plagues facilitated by a widespread growth of intercontinental transportation and globalization. And I won't get into the threat of a giant solar flare frying our electrical grid.
?Super consumption? in the US needs to be reined in where the population is growing the fastest. If the world adopts an American standard of living, we need four more Earths to supply the needed natural resources. We must to raise the price of all forms of carbon, preferably through taxes, but cap and trade will work too. Population control is the answer to all of these problems, which is best achieved by giving women an education, jobs, and rights, and has already worked well in Europe and Japan.
All sobering food for thought.
Global Market Comments
December 19, 2014
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL END OF YEAR ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(GO LONG CHRISTMAS CHEER AND HOT BUTTERED RUM),
(MY LAST RESEARCH PIECE OF THE YEAR)
Global Market Comments
December 18, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(VOLATILITY HERE IS PEAKING),
?(VXX), (VIX), (XIV),
(HEDGE FUNDS: THE NEW DUMB MONEY)
(TESTIMONIAL)
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX ST ETN (XIV)
Much of the recent buying of stocks has been generated by hedge funds panicking to cover shorts.
Convinced of the imminent collapse of Europe, the impotence of governments to do anything about it, and slow economic growth at home, many managers were running a maximum short for the umpteenth time, and were forced to cover at a loss. Meet the new dumb money: hedge funds.
When I first started on Wall Street in the seventies, you heard a lot about the ?dumb money?. This was a referral to the low-end individual retail investors who bought the research, hook-line-and-sinker, loyally subscribed to every IPO, religiously bought every top, and sold every bottom.
Needless to say, such clients didn?t survive very long, and retail stock brokerage evolved into a volume business, endlessly seeking to replace outgoing suckers with new ones. When one asked ?Where are the customers? yachts,? everyone in the industry new the grim answer.
Since the popping of the dot-com boom in 2000, the individual investor has finally started to smarten up. They bailed en masse from equities, seeking to plow their fortunes into real estate, which everyone knew never went down. Since 2007, the exit from equities has accelerated.
I bet the average individual investor outperformed the average hedge fund in 2013 by a large margin. Look no further than the chart below, which shows an average return by hedge funds, compared to an S&P 500 index gain of 30%, including dividends.
This takes me back to the Golden Age of hedge funds during the 1980?s. For a start, you could count the number of active funds on your fingers and toes, and we all knew each other. The usual suspects included the owl like Soros, the bombastic Robertson, steely cool Tudor-Jones, the nefarious Bacon, the complicated Steinhart, of course, myself, and a handful of others.
The traditional Wall Street establishment viewed us as outlaws, and believed that if the trades we were doing weren?t illegal, they should be, like short selling. Investigations and audits were a daily fact of life. It wasn?t easy being green. I believe that Steinhart was under investigation during his entire 40 year career, but the Feds never brought a case.
It was all worth it, because in those days, if you did copious research and engaged in enough out of the box thinking, you could bring in enormous profits with almost no risk. I used to call these ?free money? trades. To be taken seriously as a manager by the small community of hedge fund investors you had to earn 40% a year or you weren?t worth the perceived risk. Annual gains of 100% or more were not unheard of.
Let me give you an example. In 1989, you could buy a leveraged warrant on a Japanese stock near parity, for $100, that gave you the right to own $500 worth of stock. You bought the warrant and sold short the underlying stock. Overnight yen yields then were at 6%, so 500% X 6% = 30% a year, your risk free return.
Most Japanese stock dividends were near zero then, so the cost of borrowing was almost nothing. The position effectively created a high yield synthetic convertible bond. If the stock then fell, you also made big money on your short stock position. This was not a bad portfolio to have in 1990, when the Nikkei stock index plunged from ?39,000 to ?20,000 in three months, and some individual shares dropped by 80%.
Trades like this were possible because only a smaller number of mathematicians and computer geeks, like me, were on the hunt, and collectively, we amounted to no more than a flea on an elephant?s back. Today, there are over 10,000 hedge funds managing $2.5 trillion, accounting for anywhere from 50% to 70% of the daily volume.
Many of the strategies now can only be executed by multimillion-dollar mainframe computers collocated next to the stock exchange floor. Winning or losing trades are often determined by the speed of light. And as the numbers have expanded exponentially from dozens to hundreds of thousands, the quality of the players has gone down dramatically, with copycats and ?wanabees? crowding the field.
The problem is that hedge funds are no longer peripheral to the market. They are the market, and therein lies the headache. How are you supposed to outperform the market when it means beating yourself? As a result, hedge fund managers have replaced the individual as the new ?dumb money?, buying tops and selling bottoms, only to cover at a loss, as we witnessed today.
When markets disintegrate into a few big hedge funds slugging it out against each other for infinitesimal spreads, no one makes any money. I saw this happen in Tokyo in the 1990?s, when hedge funds took over the bulk of trading. Volumes shrank to a shadow of their former selves.
How does this end? We have already seen the outcome; that investors flee markets run by hedge funds and migrate to those where they have less of an impact. That explains the meteoric rise of trading volumes of other assets classes, like bonds and foreign exchange.
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