Global Market Comments
December 11, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(OIL GRINCH KO?S CHRISTMAS RALLY),
(SPY), (OXY), (XOM), (SCTY), (FSLR), (VSLR), (XLK), (BBH),
(TESTIMONIAL),
(AN EVENING WITH CONGRESS BARNEY FRANK)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
SolarCity Corporation (SCTY)
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)
Vivint Solar, Inc. (VSLR)
Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK)
Market Vectors Biotech ETF (BBH)
The continuing collapse in oil prices has finally spilled over into the real world, at its worst knocking 290 points off of the Dow Average yesterday.
Traders who grew accustomed to a market that went up like clockwork every day were in for a rude awakening. Is the positive case for equities coming to an end?
Is the bull dead?
Not yet. All we are seeing is a normal 5%-7% correction in a long-term uptrend. It?s really all about the numbers, as it always is.
American companies are still on tract to increase earnings by 10% in 2015, and S&P 500 earnings are set to reach $130. Technology and innovation are hyper accelerating. Our energy costs have been cut in half, creating a giant tax cut. The world still wants to send its money here.
Goldilocks is still alive and well, just momentarily hiding under the bed.
Yes, it?s another buying opportunity.
This time, however, it?s different.
Oil has gone down so fast, some $46, or 43% in a scant six months that it has set the cat among the pigeons within the producing countries. The decline has been so precipitous that the budgets of oil producing countries from Saudi Arabia, to Russia, to Norway, have taken a real walloping. What else would you expect when your principal revenue source suddenly halves?
The plunge caught the producers totally by surprise. So to meet budget shortfalls, they are having to raise cash from their sovereign wealth funds. Some 15 of the world?s 20 largest sovereign wealth funds are run by oil producing countries.
To raise money, they are having to sell off investments, primarily stocks, and especially energy stocks. That is one of the few industries they actually understand.
This all means that the selling should dry up going into yearend, once budgetary requirements are met. If the price of oil stabilizes here at $61, or heaven forbid, starts to rise, then their selling of stocks completely ceases.
The bull market returns.
After suffering through a Trade Alert drought that has lasted more than a month, there are finally some nice trades setting up. I?m thinking specifically about the S&P 500 (SPY), energy (OXY), (XOM) and Solar stocks (SCTY), (FSLR), (VSLR), and even a chance to get back into the front-runners, technology (XLK) and biotech (BBH). Europe is also finally starting to look enticing.
Watch this space.
Goldilocks is Still Alive and Well
Just want to let you know that I have had some great trades with you this year. I made the most money on (FXE), with (IWM) in second place. (IBM) was in third place - with one trade from you and comments from Jim Parker.
I've found that when Jim says a stock has hit bottom it's usually a good time to buy, even if he doesn't send out a Trade Alert. You were right when you said we can make more money waiting for a few good trades instead of overtrading.
Most of the money I lost this year was from my own mistakes - overtrading, not stopping out and waiting too long to take profits. My intention was to do only what you said, but the market is very tempting.
After looking back on my trades this year, I'm thinking I should reconsider and sign up for Jim's service again. It doesn't take many trades to pay for the service, even if I can't keep up with it all the time. And I learn a lot from him too.
I expect 2015 to be a great year! Safe travels over the holidays!
Susanna
Orlando, Florida
?I try to buy stock in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will.? said oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett.
Global Market Comments
December 10, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(UPDATE ON LINN ENERGY), (LINE),
(THE MYSTERY OF THE MISSING $100 BILLION), (TLT),
(MY FAVORITE SECRET ECONOMIC INDICATOR)
Linn Energy, LLC (LINE)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
After the catastrophic 25% fall in the units of Linn Energy (LINE) over the past three days, I thought I?d better take another look at the company. The company?s units have now crashed by an eye popping 55% since the May $31 high.
The units have been trading as if the company is imminently going bankrupt. The contradiction is that it clearly isn?t. This is basically a healthy company that is undergoing some volatility typical for the sector.
Is this logical or rational?
No, not at all. But when a real panic hits, you sell first, and ask questions later. That has clearly been happening in the oil patch for the past month.
At the $14 low on Monday, the units were yielding a spectacular 20.7% annualized. This is not some imaginary pie in the sky estimate. This is what the actual $0.24 monthly cash payout announced by the company as recently as December 1 works out to for holders of record as of Thursday, December 11.
Nor are these spectacular yields based on some wild leveraged bets in the financial markets. (LINE) is predominantly a natural gas company, a commodity which has seen its price go largely unchanged for the past two years, hovering above $3.50. And much of its production has already been hedged against any downside risk with offsetting positions in the futures market.
I always try to use every loss as a learning opportunity, or the lesson goes wasted, and is doomed to repetition.
The reasons above were why I shot out a quick Trade Alert last week to buy (LINN) at $16.67. It was an uncharacteristically cautious position for me. But calling bottoms in major trends is always a risky enterprise, so I went small, very small. I bought the underlying units, not the options, and then in unleveraged form.
Initially things went great, rocketing 13% right out the door. Short term, smart traders, like Mad Day Trader Jim Parker, then put in tight stop losses below. That way, he was playing with the house?s money in any further upside, and is assured against loss during any rapid reversal.
I, unfortunately was too slow to do so, and had to bear the cost of the sudden 25% drop. Remember, being right 80% of the time means that I am wrong 20% of the time. But with only a 10% position, my loss never exceeded 1.60% of my total portfolio, something I can live with, and ride out until any recovery.
My guess is that many (LINE) holders violated my ?Sleep at night rule,? lured by the hefty dividend payout into owning too many units.
Once burned, twice forewarned.
My advice to you now is ?Hang on.? You?ve already taken the hit. Don?t bail here and miss the recovery, which will probably begin in earnest next year.
Now you see it, now you don?t.
That was the question observers of international monetary flows were asking after last week?s data release from the Federal Reserve. These showed that some $104.5 billion in Treasury securities held in custody accounts were withdrawn.
It doesn?t mean that these bonds were sold. You certainly would have noticed this in the Treasury market, where a liquidation of this size could have moved prices down and yields up as much as 20 basis points. In fact prices went up and yields down during the week in question.
They were simply transferred from one custodian to another. Why this matters in an age when securities are only issued in electronic, not physical form, is beyond my pay grade.
Of course, all fingers pointed to Russia, who was thought to have made the move to avoid coming economic sanctions in the wake of their annexation of Crimea. The sanctions did come, but were primarily imposed on the oligarchs, not on governmental institutions, as a way of singling out Vladimir Putin?s political and financial backers.
Do the oligarchs own this much US government paper? Probably.
The Russians have valid concerns. The United States has seized more sovereign assets than any other country in history.
It did so against Japan and Italy, and Germany twice during WWI and WWII. Few know this, but the Bayer Company of aspirin fame in the US, is separate from Bayer in Germany, the former seized by the US and sold off as an alien asset during the Second World War. Today, the US is sitting on $100 billion worth of Iranian assets.
In the global scheme of things, this is not that big of a deal. Russia ranks only 11th among foreign holders of Treasury debt, with $139 billion, far behind China ($1.26 trillion) and Japan ($1.18 trillion). The great irony in these numbers is that they show that if the US wants to protect anyone from a Chinese attack, they have to borrow money from China to do it.
This could be part of a broader trend of cash rich countries withdrawing their savings from the US. Much was made of this when Germany asked for the return of the bulk of its gold bullion holdings held by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at 33 Liberty Street, NY, NY last year (former Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner?s old hang out).
I?ve been in that vault. There, behind steel bars, are dozens of pallets piled high with 100 ounce gold bars, each labeled with the country of ownership. When gold reserves are transferred from country to country, they are simply carried (with white gloves to avoid friction) from one pallet to the next.
This has been the fuel for endless conspiracy theories on the internet, which over the years anticipated a dollar crash, a default of the US government, a takeover by the Trilateral Commission, or a complete collapse of the global financial system.
The reality is a little more mundane. The Fed took deposit of European gold reserves after WWII in case The Russian Army overran Western Europe. In the end, they didn?t. We had nukes, and they had none.
However, given the machinations of Putin in Crimea in recent weeks, the Germans might think about sending their gold bullion back to the New York Fed, post haste.
Now Who Do These Belong To?
Global Market Comments
December 9, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(CHICAGO TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23 GLOBAL STRAGEGY LUNCHEON),
(TAKE A RIDE IN THE NEW SHORT JUNK ETF),
(SJB), (JNK), (CORN)
(TESTIMONIAL)
ProShares Short High Yield (SJB)
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)
Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN)
?We don?t want to go from Wild Turkey to cold turkey overnight,? said Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve.
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