Global Market Comments
November 24, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TRADING THE KENNEDY ASSASSINATION)
Global Market Comments
November 21, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TRADE ALERT DROUGHT EXPLANATION AND MY MARKET TAKE),
(SPY), (BABA), (VIX),
(REPORT FROM AUSTRALIA)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
Those of you who recently purchased the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s mentoring service may have noticed a sudden drop off in Trade Alerts.
During October, I sent out a record 44 Alerts and Updates. As a result, that month was my best of the year, bringing in a gain of 6.69%. This month, only 5 Trade Alerts have gone out.
What gives?
I assure you, I have not been basking in the sun on a yacht in the Caribbean. Nor have I been catching the end of the ski season on New Zealand?s South Island. I have not even taken off on a hundred mile snowshoe across the High Sierras (that is not scheduled until Thanksgiving week).
No, I?m afraid that I have to tell you that the problem has been the market. I like to focus on sending out Trade Alerts that have an overwhelming chance of success. The fundamentals, the technical?s, the sun, moon, and stars all have to line up perfectly.
When they don?t, I don?t trade. It?s called maintaining discipline. The same is true for my friend, Mad Day Trader, Jim Parker. Sometimes, the best trades are the ones you think about, but never do, because your models say ?Stay away!?
When I ran my big hedge fund during the 1990?s I developed a perfect leading indicator. It was based my own clients? cash flows. When money poured in, it reliably signaled a market top. When it flowed out, it presciently indicated a market bottom.
It made absolutely no difference what my own performance was. If I was up 40% on the year, and the stock market dove 10%, investors wanted their money back?and now! No excuses, no explanations.
When investors wanted to redeem, I bought them out with my own money. Eventually, over the years, I ended up owning the entire hedge fund, which I then sold at a big premium at the market top to a group of foreign investors.
The closing date was January 1, 2000, four months before the beginning of the Great Dotcom crash. People told me I was stupid for four months?then I never heard from them again, except to occasionally see their resumes put in front of me by hopeful headhunters.
I am seeing the same sort of behavior in the newsletter business. Market surges bring in large numbers of new subscribers, who then expect immediate gratification in the form of a ton of Trade Alerts. At market bottoms the PayPal account goes completely dormant.
If I met new subscriber expectations, I would create a perfect money destruction machine, one that mechanically buys tops and sells bottoms. That is a great way to buy a spanking brand new mega yacht for your broker, but not for yourself.
So what should you expect from the Mad Hedge Fund Trader? To get buried in Trade Alerts when conditions are ideal, and sit on your hands when they aren?t.
That is when you?re supposed to be reading those deep, insightful research pieces that I send you every day, and drawing up short lists of things to do when the call to action arises. Chance rewards the prepared.
Keeping you out of a high risk/low return market is a far more valuable service that I can provide than tying you to a low risk/high return one.
Hint: Just because you bought a new subscription to the Global Trading Dispatch doesn?t mean that trading conditions have suddenly become ideal.
If you have to wait for an entire market cycle for the sweet spots to start appearing in large numbers, that is the best way to protect and expand your wealth. Market discipline is the most valuable thing I can teach you.
With all that said, let?s talk about the markets.
This is a particularly tricky place for traders. The lowest risk day of the year to buy stocks was October 15. Since then, the risks have increased daily. We are now at the top of one of the extended runs in market history. Should we throw caution to the wind and buy with reckless abandon?
Hell no!
So maybe we should consider flipping to the short side?
We have just entered the six-month period when stocks are traditionally the strongest. You can add to this big upward influence the end of the year run up.
In fact, I think we will close 2014 at the high of the year. Looking at the way the Volatility Index (VIX) is trading, it could be another three years before we see another full 10% correction.
So I don?t think that selling short any risk asset is a good idea here either.
That leaves us the small weekly 1%-2% mini corrections we have been getting to get involved with on the long side. But since we are running into the annual book closing, you have to use tight stop losses to protect your investment.
The high frequency traders all know this, and will program their algorithms to trigger as many stop losses as possible before reversing markets. That?s how I lost my long vertical call spread in Alibaba (BABA) this year, for a -2.38% hickey.
This is why I wrote in the Trade Alert that short term traders should sell, but long-term investors should hold. I think the stock is going to $140 next year.
Long-term investors have no problem. My fundamental economic call remains unchanged. Analysts and investors alike are underestimating the strength of the US economy.
Almost every data point confirms my convictions. Everyone else is shocked, befuddled, and bemused. Not me.
So, this bull market could continue for three or more years, and all they need to do is take an extended cruise when the markets suffer their periodic corrections.
This is why those owning the deepest discount Vanguard index funds have outperformed both active and hedge fund mangers for the third year running.
Sometimes it pays to be lazy.
Sometimes It Pays to be Lazy
The noise was as depressing as it was unmistakable. The front tire on my rental car blew out, leaving me stranded on the side of the road. The problem was that I was in the middle of nowhere in New South Wales, Australia, and it was pouring cats and dogs.
Nothing but eucalyptus trees unfolded across the vast rolling hills. I looked in the trunk. Kookaburras laughed in the foliage. There was a nice new spare, but no jack.
I picked up my iPhone 5s to call for help. There, was the message that sank a thousand ships, and ended a million relationships: ?No Service,? and no bars. Now you really can?t hear me. My traveling companion shuddered. ?They?ll never find our bodies?.
Then, the distant wail of a chain saw beckoned. Aha, I thought, all I need is a good Australian farmer to come to my aid. They?ll help anyone, even a Yank with a strange accent and decidedly foreign clothing.
Dressed for wine tasting in the Hunter Valley, I now found myself charging out across the Australian bush, up to my ankles in red mud. I was uplifted by the probability that there was at least a 95% chance that I was not walking into the home of a serial killer. Scenes from the cult film Deliverance flashed through my mind.
A frenzied, barking Rottweiler ran out to greet me. Fortunately, I passed the smell test. Minutes later I was speaking with what had to be Crocodile Dundee?s long lost half brother, complete with the broad brimmed leather hat, crocodile teeth, and a sleeveless denim jacket. It seems to be an Aussie thing.
Meet Crocodile John Thomas
Not only would he lend me a jack, he insisted on driving me out to my car and changing my tire for me. Do I really look that old and infirm now? He did mention casually, ?I?m glad you made it across that field. We have lost four dogs to snakes there in the past year.? Oops, and double oops.
In the end, we took turns while discussing the current state of the dairy cow market, the price of hay (it?s higher), and the uselessness of the current government in Canberra. I drew on my vast knowledge on these topics from the summer I spend on a cattle ranch in Bassano, Alberta a half century ago.
Thus began my trip to the Antipodes, somewhat inauspiciously. However, the highpoints were to follow shortly.
The wines in the Hunter Valley were to die for. They have become a carbon copy of my own Napa Valley, complete with all the tourist rip offs. Their red Shiraz is world class, and I took names of the US distributors of the best ones. It turns out to be easier to ship military grade arms abroad than a case of wine.
Now, Which One of These Works in Australia?
After winning the battle of Guadalcanal in 1942, my dad, along with the rest of the survivors from the First Marine Division, were dumped in Melbourne for some much needed rest and resupply. They were starving, barefoot, and in rags, but their weapons were in perfect operating condition.
The government housed them in the Melbourne Cricket Ground, and provided WWI surplus Australian Army uniforms, all in wool khaki. Dad told me when he walked down the street, families invited him in for dinner almost every night. Their men were all off fighting in North Africa.
At my Melbourne strategy luncheon 72 years later, I thanked the people of Melbourne for their hospitality on behalf of the Marine Corps and the Thomas family. Today, the MCG still stands, and a small memorial there gives tribute to the actions of these brave men, who saved Australia from invasion by the Japanese.
I never fail to stop by the fabled Sydney Opera House when I breeze through this part of the world, one of the world?s most recognizable architectural icons. Its creation is an epic in its own right. Designed by a young Dane, and union built during a period of revolving governments, planning and construction dragged on for 20 years, seemingly defying the known laws of physics and politics.
It was worth every penny.
Carmen, by Georges Bizet, dragged on, as operas tend to do. Half way through, the Toreador rode in on a horse. From then on, the entire audience wondered if, in front of 3,000 of the Sydney elite, the horse was going to take a dump on the stage. Miraculously, it didn?t.
I soon realized that my French is badly in need of repair. The translators could have used a tune up as well. Eventually I was thinking ?kill her already and get it over with.? In the end, Jos? did the evil deed. On the way out in a drenching rainstorm I saw the horse take the biggest dump I had ever seen, carefully into a trashcan in the parking lot.
During a free day in Brisbane, a former colonial outpost that is evolving into an Asian city, I chartered a Cessna Caravan and flew it up to the Great Barrier Reef. I landed it on Lady Elliot Island, a speck of coral 30 miles out into the azure blue South Pacific, careful to warn my passengers of the hard landing that was coming.
It was another one of those incredible, once in a lifetime, bucket list type trips. There, I spotted electric blue starfish, snapping moray eels, a pod of dolphins, rode the back of a giant sea turtle, and swam with giant manta rays and reef sharks. Strangely, I felt right at home with the sharks, perhaps a byproduct of my day job?
On the way home, I dipped down to a lower altitude to skim the endless pristine beaches of Queensland, scattering the kangaroos and emus (not the European Monetary Unit.)
Piece of Cake, But Fasten Your Seatbelt
Given the large number of new subscribers who joined me during the trip, I will no doubt be making more frequents trips to the Land Down Under. To facilitate this, I have extended live customer support, educational resources, and order execution to take place in the Australian time zones through a tie up with a local broker. For more information please click here.
My event organizers had me on my feet up to 16 hours a day, giving speeches, doing interviews on radio and TV, recording webinars, and attending lunches, dinners, and cocktail receptions. Naturally, there was a lot of drinking. It seems to be another Aussie thing.
I even managed to squeeze in a mud wrestling session with my friend, Harry S. Dent, Jr., where we debated the future of the financial markets in front of an awed crowd (me up, him down). As you probably know, I eat this stuff up.
Thanks for all your support and encouragement, which allows me to live this incredible lifestyle. If you have any more bucket list suggestions to replace the adventure just struck off, please send them in.
John Thomas
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader
?The private economy is OK here. It is absorbing these body blows from Washington. Housing and energy could offset the shenanigans coming out of there,? said Stephen Wood, CIO with Russell Investments Group.
Global Market Comments
November 20, 2014
Fiat Lux
SPECIAL GOLDEN ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(LUCKY FIND SPARKS NEW CALIFORNIA GOLD RUSH), (GLD),
(THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER AND MAD DAY FUND TRADER),
(THE NEW CALIFORNIA GOLD RUSH)
?SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
On my way back from Lake Tahoe last weekend I saw that every bend of the American river was dotted with hopeful miners, looking to make a windfall fortune.
Weekend hobbyists were there panning away from the banks, while the hardcore pros stood in hip waders balancing portable pumps on truck inner tubes, pouring sand into sluice boxes. Welcome to the new California gold rush.
A sharp-eyed veteran can take in $2,000 worth of gold dust a day. The new 2013'ers were driven by a price of gold at $1,180 and the attendant headlines, but also by unemployment, and heavy rains that flushed new quantities of the yellow metal out of the Sierras.
They were no doubt inspired by the chance discovery of an 8.7 ounce nugget in May near Bakersfield, worth an impressive $10,266.
Local folklore says that The Sierra's have given up only 20% of their gold, and the remaining 80% is still up there awaiting discovery. Out of work construction workers are taking their heavy equipment up to the mountains and using it to reopen mines that have been abandoned since the 19th century.
The US Bureau of Land Management says that mining permits in the Golden State this year have shot up from 15,606 to 23,974. Unfortunately, the big money here is being made by the sellers of supplies and services to the new miners, much as Levi Strauss and Wells Fargo did in the original 1849 gold rush.
Global Market Comments
November 19, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(WHY WATER WILL SOON BE WORTH MORE THAN OIL),
(CGW), (PHO), (FIW), (VE), (TTEK), (PNR),
(TESTIMONIAL)
(REPORT FROM NEW ZEALAND),
(ENZL)
Guggenheim S&P Global Water ETF (CGW)
PowerShares Water Resources ETF (PHO)
First Trust ISE Water ETF (FIW)
Veolia Environnement S.A. (VE)
Tetra Tech Inc. (TTEK)
Pentair plc (PNR)
iShares MSCI New Zealand Capped (ENZL)
35 degrees South latitude, 174 degrees East longitude.
I am writing this report from the Duke of Marlborough Hotel and Pub in remote Russell, off the east coast of New Zealand?s North Island. Once known as ?The Hell Hole of the Pacific? in 1835, no less an authority than Charles Darwin, claimed this 19th century whaling port was populated with ?the refuse of humanity.?
It has since been cleaned up, gentrified, and turned into a gentrifying tourist Mecca. It is much like Lahaina on Maui, Hawaii was in the early seventies, before the blighting high rise hotels and condos went up.
The Residents of Russell were Most Welcoming
Others Had Different Opinions
The bar was packed to the gunwales with drunken and riotous rugby fans screaming their lungs out in support of their team in the Super Rugby League game. When South Africa won, I bought a round of drinks for the house, but first had to arm-wrestle a deeply tanned and craggy faced Welshman for the right to do so. I hope my credit card doesn?t get cancelled when the bill comes through for NZ$1,046.29. ?Thomas? is a Welsh name, isn?t it?
The trip started auspiciously at SFO when I found myself checking in behind a group of heavily tattooed, bulked up, but amiable Maoris. A few days later, I found myself at a Maori tribal dinner, where I feasted on a meal of feral pig and sweet potatoes cooked deep in the earth, and was instructed on the finer points of the Haka dance.
Let me tell you that there is a reason why there is not a national chain of Maori fast food restaurants offering their primitive cuisine on every street corner. No offense intended to my hosts, but you would only want to eat it if you were starving to death.
One of My Many High Level Contacts
The rental company was out of cars, thanks to the games, but managed to come up with a battered old Toyota Camry with bald tires, breaks well past their prime, and leaking fluids from every orifice. In other words, it was a lot like me. I was OK with the left hand drive, having lived for 20 years in Japan and England.
But the stick shift certainly made things interesting. I can?t tell you how many times I turned on the windshield wipers instead of the right turn signal, as the controls are reversed. I headed north from Auckland hoping to find better weather, picking up hitchhikers along the way to absorb the local lore.
My dad was here 70 years ago with the Marine Corps, training for the invasion of Guadalcanal, and always remarked how friendly approachable the women were. I found them friendly, yes, but not so approachable. Maybe this is because dad was a combat ready 19 year old, and I am a combat ready, but aging 62 year old fart.
The countryside was incredibly lush and green, mountainous, and covered with massive cycad ferns and kauri trees ensnarled by choking vines. Cleared grazing lands were dotted with sheep. The Maori are ever present, accounting for a substantial part of the rural population. Every town name seems to start with the letter ?W?, as in Whangaparaoa, Whangarei, and Waipu.
The Largest Tree in New Zealand
One of the most interesting conversations that I have had this year was with an aged Maori historian and Shaman at the Waitangi Treaty Grounds. When I told her I was part Cherokee, Sioux, and Delaware Indian, she opened right up and let loose for two hours.
It turns out that tribal groups around the world are cooperating and coordinating legal attacks on establishment land ownership around the world. Everyone from the Maoris to Hawaiians, Navajo?s, Australian, Aborigines, and Finnish Laps are involved, and are getting legal aid from the United Nations to fund this.
Perhaps a Distant Kiwi Cousin?
The Maoris have been especially successful, scoring a $170 million payoff from their own government. The money went into community centers and education in the most Maori dominated parts of the country.
It isn?t often that I get to discuss global economics with a Neolithic tribal representative, and I relished the opportunity. I am always looking for the new view, and I?m sure there is much we can learn from 8,000 BC.
When I checked into the Pahia Beach Hotel and Spa, I did what I always do when I visit the Southern hemisphere. I flush the toilet, watching with satisfaction as the water disappears in a counterclockwise fashion, thanks to the Coriolis force (check your physics textbook). In the Northern hemisphere is goes down clockwise. If you don?t believe me, go try it. That night I found the Southern Cross, the only one of 88 constellations not visible at home.
We all thought New Zealand was toast when Great Britain cut the economic umbilical cord by joining the European Community in 1973, leaving the land of the kiwis out in the cold. A radical series of reforms saved the country in 1984. The financial system was deregulated and exchange rates were freed. Agricultural subsidies were cut, forcing farmers to become more efficient and globally price competitive.
Through a series of fortunate historical accidents, it then entered the sweet spot of the global economy. It was too small to have its own car industry, so it had nothing to lose when Japan took over that business. The same occurred with manufacturing, which China swallowed whole in the past decade.
Today, services and tourism account for 70% of GDP. With a per capita GDP of $27,130, New Zealand ranks 33rd in the world, behind the US at $46.810 (7th), but well ahead of China at $7,544 (94th).
Kiwis Will Sell You Anything
Today, the World Bank ranks New Zealand as the most business friendly country on the planet. It has the lowest taxes in the developed world, and an unemployment rate at an enviable 6.6%. People are happy and the cities bustle. Recently, the economy has been booming because of the baby formula tainting scandal in China. New Zealand supplies one third of the world?s milk powder, and Chinese mothers who can afford it are now feeding only imported foreign brands to their kids.
This makes all of the country?s assets long term buys, including both the New Zealand dollar and the iShares MSCI New Zealand Investable Index Fund ETF (ENZL). The Chinese certainly think so, who have emerged as far and away the largest buyers of the country?s real estate. Use the big dips to take positions.
And Never Throw Anything Out
Well, I have to go now, or I?ll miss the last ferry back to Pahia on the mainland. Besides, that waitress across the room is starting to wink at me.
To watch a video of my giving thanks for your support from New Zealand?s Mount Maunganui, a long dead volcano, please click here.
Global Market Comments
November 18, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(NOVEMBER 19 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(JAPAN?S RUDE AWAKENING),
(FXY), (YCS), (DXJ),
(IS USA, INC. A ?SELL??)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ)
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